Trading in Silence Indian Benchmark Indices Close with a Whisper

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 19,664.70 down by 0.05%

In a subdued trading session, the Indian benchmark indices grappled with uncertainty, struggling to establish a clear direction amidst a backdrop of mixed global cues. The trading day began on a muted note but witnessed a gradual descent as the afternoon progressed, pushing the Nifty below the critical 19,650 level. Fortunately, the index managed to regain some lost ground, ultimately concluding the day with minimal changes.

The NSE Nifty 50 embarked on a volatile journey, initially opening in positive territory but ultimately closing with a 0.05 percent dip, dipping into the red. The Nifty’s descent below the 19,700 mark raised significant concerns among traders.

Global influences played a dominant role in shaping the Indian markets during this lackluster trading session, primarily driven by weak cues emanating from Asian and European markets. This subdued sentiment was further exacerbated by selective profit-taking by traders, who braced themselves for the forthcoming policy outcome from the RBI. Concurrently, external factors such as the strengthening dollar index and rising treasury yields added to the prevailing uncertainty in the market.

Throughout the trading day, the Indian market grappled with flat trading conditions, contending with headwinds originating from the global landscape. The consistent selling pressure exerted by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) kept domestic investors cautious, ultimately impacting the overall market sentiment.

Notably, there was a discernible divergence in sector performance. The small-cap segment garnered renewed interest due to recent corrections and attractive valuations relative to large and mid-caps. Conversely, the IT sector faced headwinds, weighed down by concerns regarding a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve and subsequent spending cuts, which led to a decline in IT indices. In these challenging times, strategic diversification and risk management strategies have become increasingly pivotal for investors in the Indian market. Moving forward, adaptability and vigilance will be key to navigating the ever-evolving global landscape.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.32%

In the financial sector, the Bank Nifty initiated its trading day with a subdued tone, opening in negative territory and ultimately settling at 44,624.20, marking a 0.32 percent decline. Similarly, the BSE Sensex, serving as the key indicator of the Indian equity market, experienced a modest dip of 0.12 percent, concluding the trading session at 65,945.47, signifying a noticeable descent.

Of particular note, the Bank Nifty displayed a distinct tight consolidation pattern throughout the day, eventually closing down by 140 points. It’s worth emphasizing that the Bank Nifty has been operating in an oversold territory, hinting at the possibility of a forthcoming rebound in the upcoming trading sessions.

Turning our attention to the sectoral performance for the day, the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector stood out with a robust gain of 0.52 percent. Noteworthy, Varun Beverages Ltd. exhibited remarkable strength within this sector, surging with a gain of 4.51 percent. Similarly, Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd. delivered a commendable performance, registering a gain of 3.95 percent.

Conversely, the Media sector encountered headwinds and emerged as the top loser of the day with a decline of 0.86 percent. Within this sector, Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd. bore the brunt of the downturn, experiencing a substantial loss of -2.87 percent. Network18 Media & Investments Ltd. also faced challenges, posting a loss of -2.27 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) engaged in transactions with a buy value of Rs. 8,750.81 crore and a sale value of Rs. 9,444.28 crore, resulting in a net value of -Rs. 693.47 crore. This indicates that FIIs/FPIs were net sellers during this period.

Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) participated with a buy value of Rs. 7,502.47 crore and a sale value of Rs. 6,787.72 crore, yielding a net value of Rs. 714.75 crore. This suggests that DIIs were net buyers, showcasing a positive sentiment in the domestic institutional investment landscape.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included IDFC First Bank with a 1.43% increase, AU Bank with a 0.94% increase, Federal Bank with a 0.54% increase, HDFC Bank with a 0.46% increase, and State Bank of India with a 0.07% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bank of Baroda with a 1.56% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 1.18% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 1.14% decline, Kotak Bank with a 0.81% decline, and ICICI Bank with a 0.72% decline. These results suggest that some banking stocks performed better for the day.

Buzz

Rupee’s Decline Amidst Dollar Demand and US Treasury Yields Surge

On Tuesday, the Indian rupee faced a setback, primarily attributed to the heightened month-end demand for the US dollar and the surge in US Treasury yields, reigniting expectations of a prolonged period of elevated interest rates in the United States.

The day concluded with the rupee standing at 83.23 against the US dollar, a slight dip from the previous session’s rate of 83.1450.

Asian Currencies Follow Suit in tandem with the rupee’s depreciation, several Asian currencies experienced declines, with the Korean won and Indonesian rupiah leading the losses.

US Treasury Yields Reach Multi-Year Highs US 10-year Treasury yields surged to levels not seen since October 2007 during Asian trading hours, settling at 4.51 percent. This robust increase has raised speculation about the prospect of extended higher interest rates in the US.

Dollar Index Resilience the dollar index exhibited notable resilience, reaching a fresh year-to-date high of 106.20 during Asian trading hours, ultimately settling at 105.97. This underscores the ongoing strength of the US dollar in the global currency landscape.

The US Federal Reserve’s Policy Outlook these developments align with the view that the US Federal Reserve may need to implement further interest rate hikes in response to the economy’s resilience. As global financial markets continue to navigate the implications of these factors, investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring central bank policies and macroeconomic indicators for insights into future currency movements and investment strategies.

Buzzing

Eicher Motors Ltd. A Promising Uptrend

Eicher Motors Ltd. witnessed a noteworthy upswing, with its share price surging by 2.61% from the previous closing value of Rs 3,386.65. The stock’s last traded price stood at Rs 3,475.10. A significant technical indicator, the 50-day moving average crossover, emerged just yesterday. Interestingly, historical data reveals that, on average, there has been a decline of -5.2% within 30 days of this signal over the last 5 years.

Moreover, Eicher Motors demonstrated robust annual revenue growth, recording an impressive 40.03%, which significantly outperformed its 3-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.58%. Over the past 18 years, a mere 2.41% of trading sessions experienced intraday declines higher than 5%, showcasing the stock’s resilience.

Cipla Ltd. A Mixed Bag of Signals

In contrast, Cipla Ltd. experienced a marginal decline, with its share price slipping by -1.37% from the previous closing value of Rs 1,179.35, settling at Rs 1,163.15. Notably, a weekly stochastic crossover emerged during the week ending Sep 22, 2023. Historical data indicates that there has been an average price decline of -4.88% within 7 weeks following this signal over the last 10 years.

Additionally, a 50-day moving average crossover occurred recently, with an average price decline of -2.88% within 30 days of this signal over the past 5 years. It’s worth noting that only 1.04% of trading sessions over the last 18 years experienced intraday declines higher than 5%. These mixed signals call for a nuanced analysis of Cipla Ltd.’s current market dynamics and future prospects.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.87, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix increased by 2.61 percent to settle at 11.19 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1113
Decliners – 1275
52Wk High –  61
52Wk Low – 17
High Band Hitters – 55
Low Band Hitters – 19
200d SMA – 18482
50d SMA – 19634
20d SMA – 19739

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Eicher Motors (+2.61%), Hero MotoCorp (+2.13%), Nestle India (+1.51%), ONGC (+1.32%), and Bajaj Auto  (+1.30%).

The top losers were Cipla (-1.37%), Tech Mahindra (-1.29%), IndusInd Bank (-1.14%), Adani Enterprises (-0.95%), and Asian Paint (-0.94%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were FMCG (+0.52%), Auto (+0.35%), Metal (+0.31%), Realty (+0.31%), Oil & Gas (+0.16%).

The top losers were Media (-0.86%), IT (-0.54%), Pharma (-0.24%), Financial Services (-0.23%), and Consumer Durables (-0.13%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
FMCG +0.52%
AUTO +0.35%
METAL +0.31%
MEDIA-0.86%
IT -0.54%
PHARMA -0.24%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list  (BALRAMCHIN open at +438.90 and close at -432.10), (CANBK open at -376.25 and close at -370.05), (HINDCOPPER open at +157.00 and close at -156.20), (GRANULES open at -333.25 and close at +336.50), (IBULHSGFIN open at +188.35 and close at -185.20) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

RBLBANK, INDUSTOWER, PNB, NMDC, INDIACEM, SAIL, NATIONALUM, ZEEL, BHEL and CHAMBLFERT stocks has the possibilities of enterance in the ban list.

GRANULES, and IBULHSGFIN stocks has the possibilities of exit from ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 19620 to 19710 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read previous -Daily Insights- here
Nifty’s Rollercoaster Ride A Volatile Trading Day
Nifty’s Soaring Journey Takes a Sudden Plunge A 2.80% Drop from All-Time High
Indices Decline 3rd Day as Fed Hints at Prolonged Higher Rates
Day of Losses and Selling Pressure Market Plunges

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.