NSE Nifty 50 Sees Volatility Amid Cautionary Market Sentiment

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 22,212.70 down by 0.02%

On February 23, the NSE Nifty 50 commenced on a positive note, but ultimately closed in the red, marking a marginal decline of 0.02%. Despite initially reaching new highs, the Indian equity benchmarks ended the day flat, with banking stocks experiencing losses. Investor sentiment turned cautious ahead of key data releases, including GDP numbers. Nifty closed at 22,212.70, slightly down from its peak of 22,297.50, as profit booking led to a retreat from morning highs.

Investors adopted a wait-and-watch approach ahead of crucial data releases, including GDP figures and fiscal deficit numbers for January, scheduled for February 29. Bloomberg’s poll projects a GDP growth rate of 6.8% for the third quarter, adding to anticipation and market volatility.

Despite the day’s pause, indications suggest a continuation of the upward trend. Traders are advised to seize opportunities during intermediate dips to add quality stocks, while closely monitoring global indices, particularly those in the US, and banking majors for momentum cues.

While the market briefly paused, it was buoyed by positive signals from global markets, with capital goods and industrial sectors exhibiting strength fueled by advancements in manufacturing and services. However, concerns persist over escalating crude oil prices, surging US bond yields, and stretched valuations, which may prompt continued selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) amidst the pre-election rally.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.23%

On the trading day, both the Bank Nifty and the BSE Sensex exhibited a mixed performance. The Bank Nifty commenced trading on a positive note, opening in the green, but ultimately closed in the red with a decrease of 0.23%, settling at 46,811.75. Similarly, the BSE Sensex also saw a slight decline of 0.02%, closing in the red at a low of 73,142.80. Despite the initial optimism, both indices experienced downward pressure, leading to a modest retreat by the end of the trading session.

In the sectorial front, the media sector experienced significant gains, with an overall increase of 1.36%. TV18 Broadcast Ltd. saw a notable rise of 3.79%, while Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. also showed a healthy increase of 3.54%. Conversely, the oil and gas sector faced a downturn, witnessing a decline of 0.43%. Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. experienced a loss of -2.28%, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. saw a similar decrease of -2.27%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) engaged in buying and selling activities, with a buy value of Rs. 15,746.64 crore and a sale value of Rs. 14,470.55 crore. This resulted in a net value of Rs. 1,276.09 crore. Concurrently, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) participated in the market with a buy value of Rs. 8,556.28 crore and a sale value of Rs. 8,379.60 crore, leading to a net value of Rs. 176.68 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Bandhan Bank with a 2.75% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 1.79% increase, and AU Bank with a 0.93% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bank of Baroda with a 2.39% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 1.16% decline, Federal Bank with a 0.85% decline, State Bank of India with a 0.72% decline, and IndusInd Bank with a 0.68% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Rupee Weakens Against Dollar Amidst Market Trends

The Indian rupee faced depreciation, consolidating within a narrow range and closing at 82.93 (pro) against the US dollar on Friday. This decline of 8 paise was attributed to the strength of the American currency and a subdued performance in domestic equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 82.87 and settled at 82.93 against the dollar, experiencing a range-bound movement throughout the day with highs and lows at 82.84 and 82.96, respectively.

On Thursday, the rupee had closed at 82.85 against the US dollar but depreciated on Friday due to increased demand for dollars from importers. Additionally, elevated crude oil prices exerted further pressure on the rupee. Looking ahead, the USD-INR spot price is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of Rs 82.60 to Rs 83.10. Meanwhile, the dollar index, reflecting the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, recorded a slight increase at 104.00.

In the global oil market, Brent crude futures, a key benchmark, experienced a 1.33% decline, trading at USD 82.56 per barrel. This downward trend in oil prices could potentially alleviate some pressure on the rupee in the coming sessions.

Stocks Highlights

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. Shows Promising Growth

Bajaj Finserv Ltd. witnessed a commendable increase in its share price, rising by 1.47% to Rs 1,616.00 from its previous close of Rs 1,592.55. This upward movement signals positive momentum in the company’s performance. Notably, only a small percentage, 2.54%, of trading sessions in the last 15 years saw intraday gains higher than 5%, indicating the significance of this recent increase.

The company’s revenue growth is also noteworthy, with an annual growth rate of 19.92%, surpassing its 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.57%. Additionally, a buy signal has been triggered as indicated by a 10-day moving crossover, historically resulting in an average price gain of 3.09% within 7 days of the signal over the past 5 years.

However, it’s important to note that Bajaj Finserv Ltd. has allocated a significant portion of its operating revenues towards interest expenses (14.87%) and employee costs (10.68%) in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Faces Decline

Conversely, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. experienced a decline in its share price, dropping by -1.42% to Rs 617.00 from its previous close of Rs 625.90. This decrease reflects a challenging market environment for the company. Only a minimal percentage, 1.79%, of trading sessions in the last 19 years saw intraday declines higher than 5%, highlighting the significance of this recent downturn.

Although the company has shown impressive annual revenue growth of 35.99%, outperforming its 3-year CAGR of 18.13%, a sell signal has been triggered due to a bearish trend indicated by a 5-day moving crossover on Feb 21, 2024. Historically, this signal has led to an average price decline of -2.61% within 7 days over the past 5 years.

It’s worth noting that Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. has allocated minimal percentages of its operating revenues towards interest expenses (less than 1%) and employee costs (0.59%) in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.09, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.48 percent to settle at 14.97 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1307
Decliners – 1202
52Wk High –  151
52Wk Low – 6
High Band Hitters – 109
Low Band Hitters – 49
200d SMA – 19967
50d SMA – 21688
20d SMA – 21881

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Bajaj Finserv (+1.47%), SBI Life (+1.35%), HDFC Life (+1.07%), LTIM  (+0.97%), and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories  (+0.96%).

The top losers were BPCL (-1.42%), HCL Technologies (-1.30%), Maruti (-1.18%), Asian Paint (-1.15%), and ONGC (-1.09%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were Media (+1.36%), Realty (+1.00%), Consumer Durables (+0.60%), Pharma (+0.42%), and Auto (+0.18%).

The top losers sector were Oil & Gas (-0.43%), Metal (-0.27%),  IT (-0.22%), and FMCG (-0.15%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +1.36%
REALTY +1.00%
CONSUMER DURABLES +0.60%
OIL & GAS -0.43%
METAL -0.27%
IT -0.22%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (SAIL open at -130.40 and close at -128.00), (ABFRL open at +227.95 and close at -226.20), (BALRAMCHIN open at +385.00 and close at -379.70), (RBLBANK open at +275.90 and close at +268.60), (INDUSTOWER open at +231.65 and close at +241.15), (PVRINOX open at +1391.80 and close at +1389.20), (PEL open at +937.90 and close at -933.55), (ASHOKLEY open at +173.50 and close at +174.00), (GNFC open at +669.95 and close at +675.05), (GMRINFRA open at +88.25 and close at +88.35), (ZEEL open at +170.60 and close at +173.45), (BIOCON open at -272.00 and close at +273.05), (NATIONALUM open at +162.30 and close at -159.00), (BANDHANBNK open at +204.95 and close at -208.25), and (HINDCOPPER open at +265.15 and close at -263.05) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

NMDC, PNB, TATACHEM, VEDL, BHEL, and MANAPPURAM stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

GMRINFRA, ZEEL, BIOCON, NATIONALUM, BANDHANBNK, and HINDCOPPER stock have the possibility of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 22100 to 22350 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read previous -Daily Insights- here
Nifty 50’s Resilience Bouncing Back from Previous Losses
Engulfing Bear Candle Forms as Nifty Index Peaks and Plummets
Private Banks Fuel Market Revival to Approach All-Time Highs

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.