Did the Nifty Break Its Losing Streak for Good?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 23,518.50 up by 0.28%

On November 19, 2024, Indian equity markets took a breath of fresh air—but will it last? The NSE Nifty 50 started with a green gap-up, up by 0.28%, and ended above 23,500, closing at 23,518.50, with gains of 64.70 points. After a seven-day losing streak, could this be a sign of a real recovery, or just a brief blip before another tumble?

“Is the Nifty’s Surge Here to Stay, or Will Geopolitical Tensions Derail It?”

Analysts speculate that this short-term relief rally is driven by oversold conditions. The market had been languishing in correction territory, and even with the global uncertainty casting a shadow, Indian markets seemed to find some momentum. The Nifty 50 surged in the first half of the session, only to be suddenly wiped out in the final hours as Russia-Ukraine tensions flared. The index closed positive, but well off its highs, raising questions: Was this a genuine recovery, or just a suspended recovery that couldn’t hold?

Despite a brief recovery, analysts are cautious. The Nifty 50 finished below its 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 23,541, leaving traders wondering if the bears are still in control. The sharp late-day sell-off erased most of the gains, and some analysts are already predicting that the market pullback might just be over—until the next leg of the decline begins.

Why Did the Markets Stumble Again?

The market had its moments of strength—media, realty, and auto sectors led the rally—but by the end of the day, the bulls couldn’t sustain their positions. Sectoral trends were mixed, with realty and auto stocks rising, while metal and energy stocks slipped. This volatility isn’t new, and the sharp sell-off during the final hours of trading only amplified investor caution.

So, What’s Next for Nifty? Will Bulls Regain Control?

The RSI (Relative Strength Index), which hit 30.85, suggests that the market was oversold, but whether this rebound is sustainable remains uncertain. Will the market continue to show resilience, or will the pressure from geopolitical issues and global market concerns push Nifty back into negative territory?

The 9.5% Drop—A Signal of Deeper Troubles?

Since its peak in September 2024, the Nifty has fallen nearly 10%, impacted by FII outflows and concerns around corporate earnings. The global trend of “Sell India, Buy China” has further dampened sentiment, with China’s policy stimulus attracting huge foreign inflows. In fact, China saw $96 billion in FII inflows in September alone. On the flip side, Indian stocks are reeling from a downward revision of earnings expectations, with 66% of companies under JM Financial facing FY25 earnings downgrades.

With weak Q2 earnings and FII selling, market participants remain on edge. The question lingers: Is this market dip just a phase, or are deeper troubles brewing ahead?

The Unpredictable Road Ahead

While the Nifty 50 made an impressive recovery, doubts remain over its ability to maintain upward momentum. Volatility will likely continue as geopolitical tensions, global market shifts, and economic concerns keep traders on their toes. Keep watching, because the true nature of this rally—whether it’s a genuine recovery or another temporary rise before the next decline—will unfold in the coming days.

Will Nifty 50 break through resistance, or will bears strike again? Stay tuned as the market battle intensifies!

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.52%

Bank Nifty surged with a solid opening in the green, up by 0.52%, and closed higher at 50,626.50, marking a notable recovery. Likewise, the BSE Sensex followed suit, rising by 0.31% to close at a strong 77,578.38.

In the sectorial front, The spotlight is on the Media sector, skyrocketing with a jaw-dropping gain of 2.45%! But what’s fueling this surge? Within the Media industry, Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. stole the show with an impressive climb of 6.07%, while PVR INOX Ltd. followed closely, gaining 2.73%.

On the flip side, the Metal sector faced a gloomy day, emerging as the top loser with a dip of 0.85%. Big names like Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. plummeted by 2.68%, and Hindalco Industries Ltd. fell by 2.00%.

FIIs were net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹3,411.73 crore, with buy value at ₹15,255.09 crore and sale value at ₹18,666.82 crore.

DIIs were net buyers, injecting ₹2,783.89 crore into the market, with buy value at ₹13,657.81 crore and sale value at ₹10,873.92 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 2.77% increase, HDFC Bank with a 1.81% increase, AU Bank with a 1.46% increase, Axis Bank with a 0.64% increase, and Punjab National Bank with a 0.07% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bank of Baroda with a 2.07% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 1.60% decline, State Bank of India with a 1.46% decline, Canara Bank with a 0.86% decline, and ICICI Bank with a 0.75% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 19th November, 2024

Why Did the Rupee Fall Against the US Dollar Today? 🌍💸

The rupee slipped by just 1 paisa, settling at 84.43 against the US dollar on Tuesday. Despite the positive momentum from the domestic equity markets and a dip in crude oil prices, the rupee couldn’t hold ground against the strength of the American dollar. What’s behind this subtle yet significant move?

Geopolitical tensions played a role. The Ukraine-Russia conflict took a new turn as Russia updated its nuclear doctrine and Ukraine launched American missiles at Russian positions. This escalation sent investors flocking to safe haven assets like Gold, JPY, and CHF, alongside the dollar. In the final trading hours, this shift in sentiment caused the rupee to feel the heat and drop by a paisa.

Opening at 84.39, the rupee stayed range-bound throughout the day before closing at 84.43. In contrast, the previous session had seen a recovery from a low of 84.46, closing slightly higher at 84.42.

Looking ahead, the USD-INR pair is expected to trade in a narrow range unless there’s a decisive move in US bond yields, which face resistance at 4.50% on the 10-year treasury note. Traders are also eyeing the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as well as India’s PMIs data set for release this Friday.

On a broader scale, the dollar index was up by 0.15%, hovering at 106.35, while Brent crude dipped 0.42% to settle at $72.99 per barrel.

With all these moving parts, the rupee’s future performance remains uncertain—will the dollar’s dominance continue, or is there more volatility ahead? Stay tuned.

Stocks Highlights

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. is on the rise today, with its share price climbing by 3.15% from its previous close of Rs 2,846.90, now trading at Rs 2,936.55. But what’s driving this sudden uptick? Here’s an intriguing fact: Over the past 20 years, only 1.76% of trading sessions have seen intraday gains higher than 5%. Could this be a sign of something bigger happening within the company?

Looking deeper into Mahindra & Mahindra’s performance, the company has posted an impressive ROE (Return on Equity) of 17.02% for the year ending March 31, 2024, significantly surpassing its 5-year average of 11.97%. But what’s behind this growth? Is it sustainable?

On the flip side, SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. isn’t having such a good day, with its share price dropping by -2.92%, now sitting at Rs 1,517.00. What’s going wrong? Interestingly, only 0.62% of trading sessions in the past 7 years have seen intraday gains higher than 5% for SBI Life. So, this decline is a bit unusual. Could this be a trend, or just a temporary dip?

Despite the drop in stock price, SBI Life Insurance is holding its own with sufficient cash reserves to cover its contingent liabilities. And here’s another interesting tidbit: The company’s annual revenue growth of 62.23% for the year outperformed its 3-year CAGR of 17.13%. But despite this, its 3-year stock return of 32.19% is trailing behind the Nifty 100’s return of 34.92%.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.74 and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix increased by 3.26 to settle at 15.66 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1771
Decliners – 1016
52Wk High – 52
52Wk Low – 65
High Band Hitters – 164
Low Band Hitters – 64
200d SMA – 23570
50d SMA – 24835
20d SMA – 24114

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were M&M (+3.15%), Tech Mahindra (+1.88%), HDFC Bank (+1.81%), Dr. Reddy (+1.66%), and Eicher Motors (+1.59%).

The top losers were SBI Life (-2.92%), Hindalco (-2.00%), Reliance (-1.85%), HDFC Life (-1.67%), and SBIN (-1.46%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were Media (+2.45%), Realty (+1.48%), Auto (+1.37%), Consumer Durables (+1.16%), and Pharma (+1.04%).

The top losers were Metal (-0.85%), and Oil & Gas (-0.15%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +2.45%
REALTY +1.48%
AUTO +1.37%
METAL -0.85%
OIL & GAS -0.32%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (AARTIIND close at +434.90), (GNFC close at +561.05), (GRANULES close at +552.65), (HINDCOPPER close at -263.20), and (ABFRL close at -289.20) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

NATIONALUM, SAIL, BANDHANBNK, IGL, CHAMBLFERT, and MANAPPURAM stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

HINDCOPPER, and ABFRL stocks has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 23200 to 23800 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.