Can the Nifty Defend Key Levels Amid Volatility and Uncertainty Before the F&O Expiry?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,413.50 down by 0.27%

The NSE Nifty 50 opened in the red, slipping by 0.27% and closing below the crucial 24,450 mark. On July 24, profit booking led the Indian benchmark indices to fall for the fourth consecutive session, with the Nifty ending at 24,413.50, down 65.55 points. Banking stocks were the primary drivers of this decline.

Despite weak global cues, the Indian indices initially opened higher but quickly turned negative. Losses extended throughout the day, although last-hour buying helped mitigate some of the intraday declines. The volatility stemmed from investor reactions to the Budget 2024 proposals, notably the increased securities transaction tax on futures and options. This, coupled with foreign fund outflows and a negative global market trend, further dampened sentiment.

However, the Nifty 50 showed resilience by defending the 24,300 and 24,400 levels amidst the volatility, hinting at potential recovery towards the 24,600 hurdle in upcoming sessions. Mid and Smallcap segments managed to compound their morning gains, while BankNifty’s correction dragged the index lower.

As the market digests the budget and looks for cues from corporate earnings and global markets, will the Nifty 50 manage to rebound or continue its downward trajectory?

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.89%

The Bank Nifty began its trading session in the red, sliding by 0.89% and closing lower at 51,317.00. The BSE Sensex also experienced a downturn, falling by 0.35% to end the day at 80,148.88. Both indices reflected the day’s challenging market conditions, as investors grappled with the impact of recent budget announcements and global economic uncertainties.

Sectorial surprising twist, the media sector has seen a remarkable gain of 2.47%. Leading this surge, Dish TV India Ltd. impressed with a substantial rise of 6.63%, while Tips Industries Ltd. followed closely with a 5.07% increase.

On the flip side, the financial services sector took a hit, becoming the top loser with a 0.60% decline. Bajaj Finserv Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd. suffered losses of 2.09% and 1.82%, respectively, reflecting the challenges faced by the financial market.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) had a net outflow of Rs. 5,130.90 crore, with a buy value of Rs. 16,121.97 crore and a sale value of Rs. 21,252.87 crore.

Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) were net buyers with a positive net value of Rs. 3,137.30 crore. They purchased shares worth Rs. 17,787.34 crore and sold Rs. 14,650.04 crore,

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 2.36% increase, and AU Bank with a 0.68% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bandhan Bank with a 3.74% decline, Axis Bank with a 1.82% decline, Kotak Bank with a 1.43% decline, State Bank of India with a 1.15% decline, and IDFC First Bank with a 1.12% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Rupee Wobbles: Budget Blues and a Booming Dollar Pile on Pressure

The rupee is feeling the heat! Today, it dipped another paisa to a record low of 83.70 against the US dollar. So, what’s causing this currency coaster ride?

It seems the recent budget announcement threw a wrench into investor confidence. The hike in capital gains tax and the removal of indexation benefits spooked foreign investors, leading them to pull out their money. This sudden surge in dollar buying weakened the rupee.

But wait, there’s more! The global financial scene isn’t helping either. The US dollar is flexing its muscles on the world stage, gaining strength against other currencies. This overall dollar dominance is putting additional pressure on the rupee.

So, where do we go from here? Will the rupee find its footing, or will it continue to slide? The answer depends on several factors, including investor sentiment and global economic trends.

One thing’s for sure: the coming days will be interesting for the Indian currency. Stay tuned to see if the rupee can weather this financial storm!

Stocks Highlights

HDFC Life Takes Flight:
HDFC Life’s share price soared a whopping 4.36%, leaving its previous close in the dust! This impressive jump is even rarer than a unicorn sighting – in the past six years, such gains only occurred in a measly 1.27% of trading sessions. But what fueled this rocket launch? Here are some potential reasons:

• Outperforming Growth: HDFC Life’s annual revenue growth of a staggering 42.38% absolutely smashed its own 3-year average growth rate of 12.22%. This kind of impressive performance can definitely turn investor heads.
• Bullish Signal Detected: Technical analysts spotted a bullish sign – a 5-day moving average crossover. Historically, this has been followed by an average price increase of 2.42% within the next week! Could this be the start of a beautiful trend?

Bajaj Finserv Feels the Heat:
On the flip side, Bajaj Finserv took a tumble, dropping 2.09% from its previous close. But here’s the interesting part: their annual revenue growth of 34.5% actually outperformed their own 3-year average! So, what gives?

• Bearish Warning: The analysts saw a bearish sign – a 5-day moving average crossover, which in the past has been followed by an average price decline of 2.34% within a week. Could this be a temporary blip, or the start of a downward spiral?

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 2.66, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 7.72 to settle at 11.76 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1934
Decliners – 726
52Wk High – 130
52Wk Low – 14
High Band Hitters – 210
Low Band Hitters – 46
200d SMA – 21815
50d SMA – 23498
20d SMA – 24347

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were HDFC Life (+4.36%), Tech Mahindra (+3.12%), BPCL (+2.91%), NTPC (+2.67%), and Tata Motors (+2.46%).

The top losers were Bajaj Finserv (-2.09%), Tata Consumer (-1.90%), Britannia (-1.88%), Axis Bank (-1.82%), and Bajaj Finance (-1.67%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Media (+2.47%), Oil & Gas (+1.69%), Consumer Durables (+1.08%), Realty (+0.78%), and Pharma (+0.74%).

The top losers sector were Financial Services (-0.60%), FMCG (-0.53%), and Auto (-0.05%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +2.47%
OIL & GAS +1.69%
CONSUMER DURABLES +1.08%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.60%
FMCG -0.53%
AUTO -0.05%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (INDIACEM open at -350.05 and close at -349.70), (GNFC open at -663.00 and close at +668.85), and (SAIL open at -141.50 and close at -146.99) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

IDEA, IDFCFIRSTB, MANAPPURAM, BIOCON, VEDL, LTF, INDUSTOWER, IRCTC, ABFRL, CANFINHOME, NMDC, and IEX stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

SAIL stock has the possibilities of exit from ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24250 to 24600 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read Previous -Daily Insights- here
From High Hopes to Flatline: How Did the LTCG Tax Hike Impact Today’s Market?
Global Shifts and Market Volatility—How Will Nifty React to the Union Budget?

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.