Will Nifty Break the 24,400 Barrier? D-Street Roars with Major Bull Rally!

NiftyTrader • January 2, 2025

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Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,188.65	+445.75	+1.88%
Nifty MidCap 50	16,241.95	+190.00	+1.18%
Nifty SmallCap 50	9,065.20	+56.90	+0.63%
Nifty Bank	51,605.55	+544.95	+1.07%
Nifty Financial	24,006.70	+386.75	+1.64%
BSE SENSEX	79,943.71	+1436.30	+1.83%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,188.65 up by 1.88%

What’s driving the massive upward movement in India’s stock market? Is it the calm after the storm, or are we witnessing the calm before the next market explosion?

On January 2, the market witnessed a massive surge, with the NSE Nifty 50 rising by 1.88% to close at 24,188.65, crossing the 24,150 mark with ease. The bulls were in charge, and the market moved in one smooth, upward trajectory, propelled by a broad-based rally. Notably, the auto and IT sectors stood out, sparking excitement across the trading floor. Investors are asking: What’s next for the Nifty?

What Fueled the Bullish Breakthrough?

The Nifty’s sharp climb of 445.75 points signals that investors’ sentiment is far from pessimistic. In fact, they are more optimistic than ever, as sectors like Auto soared with stellar December sales numbers. But that’s not all. The IT sector followed suit, adding to the market’s buoyancy. The key question is—Can this momentum hold?

Key Takeaways:

Nifty crosses 24,150, closing at 24,188.65 with a 1.88% gain.
Auto and IT sectors are the major contributors to this rally.
Market capitalization of BSE-listed companies jumped by a massive Rs 5.8 lakh crore.

Investors’ Wealth on the Rise
The surge wasn’t just about numbers—investors’ wealth increased by Rs 5.8 lakh crore in a single day! As the Nifty broke through key resistance levels, optimism started to creep into every corner of the market. The broader market followed suit, with most sectoral indices posting gains. The million-dollar question now: Will this momentum continue, or is this just another fleeting rally?

Key Takeaways:

Investors saw their wealth increase by Rs 5.8 lakh crore.
Bulls dominated the market as all sectors, except Media, closed in the green.

Can Nifty Break the 24,400 Barrier?

There’s now serious talk about whether the Nifty will break the 24,400 level, with the 100-day EMA serving as the next resistance point. But it’s not just about technical levels. Sectoral strength, particularly in Auto and IT, has led to some serious predictions of a continued rally. As we head into the earnings season, will these sectors continue to fuel the market’s growth?

Key Takeaways:

Resistance at 24,400 could be the next hurdle for Nifty.
The 100-day EMA is the next crucial point of focus.
Sectoral momentum is key to determining future moves.

Gold vs. Sensex: Who Will Reach 1 Lakh First?

While the Sensex has been bullish in early 2025, the gold debate is heating up. Can gold reach 1 lakh first, or will the Sensex hit that milestone sooner? With economic uncertainties swirling, experts are divided. Some favor gold, citing geopolitical tensions and US policies, while others predict a strong performance from the Sensex, particularly as India’s economy shows signs of recovery. One thing is certain—the race for 1 lakh is on. Which asset will take the lead?

Key Takeaways:

Experts predict a tough race between gold and Sensex in 2025.
Geopolitical events and US policy are key factors in this race.

Will the Momentum Last? A New Year, New Opportunities

The Nifty 50 has seen a strong start to the year, with multiple resistance levels broken. But can this upward momentum continue throughout the year? With optimism about earnings, strong economic signals, and bullish sector performance, it seems likely that the market will stay on its growth trajectory. Investors are watching closely—with selective stock picking and strong sectoral support, there could be more gains to come.

Key Takeaways:

Selective stock picking remains crucial in this market environment.
Sectoral performance, especially in Auto and IT, is key to future growth.
Earnings season could inject fresh momentum into the market.

Global Factors and the Bond Market: What Could Slow Down the Rally?

Despite the optimism in equities, there’s talk that the bond market might see more action. With G-Secs offering stability and returns amid global uncertainty, the equity markets may slow down. The government’s fiscal deficit concerns could also weigh on the market. However, India’s growing bond market might play a bigger role in 2025, especially with the inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices like JPMorgan’s GBI-EM. Could this shift in focus dampen the exuberance of the stock market?

Key Takeaways:

G-Secs are gaining attention as a stable investment choice in 2025.
India’s bond market gains recognition globally, adding to foreign investment.
Equity markets could face headwinds from geopolitical factors and domestic fiscal concerns.

The SEBI Drama: What Does This Mean for Investors?

And finally, in a high-stakes development, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has rejected settlement applications from Zee Entertainment and its CEO Punit Goenka. This sets the stage for further investigation into alleged violations of regulations. As regulatory scrutiny tightens, investors will be watching closely—this could have major implications for corporate governance and market confidence.

Key Takeaways:

SEBI has rejected settlement applications from Zee Entertainment and Punit Goenka.
Further investigation into corporate governance issues could affect market sentiment.

In Conclusion: The market is on fire in 2025, with Nifty 50 surging past crucial resistance levels and the Sensex gaining momentum. However, questions remain—can this rally hold, and what other global and domestic factors could affect market sentiment? Stay tuned, as the year unfolds, to see if the bulls can maintain control or if external challenges will change the game.

Will you be ready for the next big move?

Bank Nifty: Up by 1.07%

On January 2, both the Bank Nifty and Sensex put up impressive performances, leaving investors questioning just how far this bullish momentum can go. Bank Nifty surged by 1.07%, closing at 51,605.55, while the BSE Sensex gained a solid 1.83%, closing at 79,943.71. As the indices soar to new highs, there’s one pressing question: What’s driving this surge, and can it last?

In the sectorial front, the auto sector has been riding high, posting an impressive 3.79% increase. Eicher Motors Ltd. emerged as one of the sector’s shining stars, soaring by 8.55%! Ashok Leyland Ltd. wasn’t far behind, with a solid gain of 6.16%.

Auto sector up by 3.79%.
Eicher Motors up by 8.55%.
Ashok Leyland gains 6.16%.

Meanwhile, the media sector faces a much darker story. It’s been the top loser of the day, dipping by 0.11%. Within this downturn, Tips Music Ltd. takes the biggest hit, losing a significant -3.42%. Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd. also struggles, with a -0.80% drop.

Hathway Cable & Datacom down by -0.80%
Media sector down by 0.11%.
Tips Music Ltd. loses -3.42%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) made notable movements, with a total buy value of Rs 13,402.85 crore, compared to a sell value of Rs 11,896.10 crore. This led to a positive net buying value of Rs 1,506.75 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) exhibited a more balanced approach. With a buy value of Rs 14,176.58 crore and a sell value of Rs 14,154.44 crore, their net buying stood at a modest Rs 22.14 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 2.91% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 2.74% increase, Federal Bank with a 2.65% increase, Kotak Bank with a 2.55% increase, and Axis Bank with a 1.42% increase.

There are no losers in the Bank Nifty today. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed best for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 2nd January, 2025

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,180	+ ₹30
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,833	+ ₹33
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,875	+ ₹25

Silver / g	₹ 90.50
Silver / kg	₹ 90,500

Is the Indian Rupee in Trouble? Here’s Why It’s Falling and What You Need to Know

The Indian rupee has taken a hit, sliding to 85.76 against the US dollar in early trading on January 2, 2025. What’s behind this decline? Strong dollar demand, coupled with a weaker yuan and foreign fund outflows, is putting serious pressure on the rupee, according to currency experts. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have been net sellers in equities, further exacerbating the situation.

At 10:50 AM, the rupee was trading 12 paise lower, compared to the previous session’s close of 85.6488. The sell-off continues as FPIs pulled back from the market, selling equities worth a massive Rs 1,782 crore on January 1, while domestic institutional investors stepped in, buying equities worth Rs 1,690 crore on the same day.

Key Takeaways:

Rupee Decline: Trading at 85.76 against the dollar
Pressure Points: Strong dollar demand, weaker yuan, and FPI sell-off
Foreign Exchange Reserves: India’s reserves dropped by $8.478 billion, standing at $644.391 billion on December 20, 2024

But what’s next for the rupee? Emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, will likely continue to be shaped by US economic data and the market’s anticipation of any potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As the US economy evolves, these shifts in monetary policy will set the tone for currency markets in the near future.

Adding to the uncertainty, there’s also a sense of wait-and-watch as the market anticipates developments, particularly Trump’s inauguration—which could play a pivotal role in determining the next major move for the rupee.

Key Insights:

Near-Term Outlook: Currency markets may be guided by US economic data and Fed rate cuts
RBI Interventions: To combat the rupee’s weakness, the Reserve Bank of India has stepped in to sell foreign currency, draining foreign exchange reserves

The burning question is—Can the rupee recover? With global factors influencing its path and interventions by the Reserve Bank of India, this saga is far from over. Keep your eyes on the markets, because the next moves could be crucial.

Stocks Highlights

Eicher Motors Ltd. is riding high, with its share price soaring by 8.55%, closing at Rs 5,303.00—a significant leap from its previous close of Rs 4,885.30. The stock has now hit a new 52-week high, signaling a robust upward momentum. But is this just the beginning of a longer bullish trend, or a flash in the pan?

Key Highlights:

8.55% increase in share price
New 52-week high: Rs 5,303.00
ROE of 22.17% for FY 2024, outperforming its 5-year average of 17.54%

Despite a 1.24% QoQ revenue decline (the lowest in 3 years), the company is still showing strong ROE performance, indicating its underlying strength. Even more interesting, a bullish trend signal appeared with the 5-day moving average crossover just yesterday, which historically has resulted in an average 3.05% gain within 7 days over the last 5 years. Could this be a signal for more upward movement?

Important Points:

Bullish Signal: 5-day moving average crossover
Potential 3.05% gain in the next 7 days

In stark contrast, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is facing some turbulence today. The stock has dropped by -0.84%, from Rs 1,889.95 to its last traded price of Rs 1,874.10. But is this just a momentary setback, or does it indicate deeper issues within the company?

Key Insights:

-0.84% decline in share price
ROE of 15.04% for FY 2024, outperforming the 5-year average of 10.79%
123.48% return over the past 3 years, far outpacing Nifty 100’s 39.03% return

While the company is still outperforming its 5-year ROE average, it’s worth noting that over the last 20 years, only 1.47% of trading sessions saw intraday gains over 5%, signaling limited short-term volatility. Furthermore, Sun Pharma’s cost structure shows that it’s spending less than 1% of operating revenues on interest expenses, a sign of strong financial health despite its -0.84% dip.

Important Takeaways:

ROE improvement of 15.04%
Outstanding 3-year returns: 123.48% vs. Nifty 100
Limited volatility: Only 1.47% of sessions saw intraday gains higher than 5%

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.76 and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 5.30 to settle at 13.74 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1791
Decliners – 1018
52Wk High – 66
52Wk Low – 24
High Band Hitters – 149
Low Band Hitters – 48
200d SMA – 23889
50d SMA – 24141
20d SMA – 24179

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Eicher Motors (+8.55%), Bajaj Finserv (+7.84%), Bajaj Finance (+6.32%), Maruti (+5.61%), and Shriram Finance (+4.53%).

The top losers were Sun Pharma (-0.84%), and Britannia (-0.20%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Auto (+3.79%), IT (+2.26%), Consumer Durables (+1.89%), Financial Services (+1.64%), and Oil & Gas (+1.28%).

The top losers sectors were Media (-0.11%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
AUTO +3.79%
IT +2.26%
CONSUMER DURABLES +1.89%
MEDIA -0.11%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (MANAPPURAM close at -190.84) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

RBLBANK, HINDCOPPER, and LTF stocks has the possibilities of entrants in the ban list.