Nifty’s Stunning Recovery: What Lies Ahead for the Indian Stock Market? Will Nifty Reach the Magic Mark of 25,000?

Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,768.30	+219.60	+0.89%
Nifty MidCap 50	16,456.25	-7.60	-0.05%
Nifty SmallCap 50	9,342.50	-17.05	-0.18%
Nifty Bank	53,583.80	+367.35	+0.69%
Nifty Financial	24,880.40	+153.45	+0.62%
BSE SENSEX	82,133.12	+843.16	+1.04%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,768.30 up by 0.89%

The Indian stock market’s journey today was nothing short of a dramatic thriller. It opened in the red, as weak global cues dragged the NSE Nifty 50 lower. But, like a plot twist you didn’t see coming, it rallied back, closing the day in the green, up by 0.89 percent at 24,768.30—a jump of 219.60 points. A stunning recovery that left investors in suspense! The Nifty50 had slipped below 24,200 earlier in the day, but it found its ground, bouncing back with more than 2 percent recovery from its day’s low. How did it happen?

• Nifty50 surged 0.89 percent, closing at 24,768.30, recovering from a low of 24,200.
• Key sectors like auto, banking, telecom, and FMCG powered the rally.
• The market experienced a dramatic recovery amid easing retail inflation and strong industrial growth.

What Drove the Sudden Surge?

The market rebounded sharply due to a mix of factors. Retail inflation eased, and industrial growth reached a surprising three-month high of 3.5 percent in October. That was enough to give investors hope. Heavyweight sectors, including auto, banking, telecom, and FMCG, led the charge. This was no ordinary day—it was a Friday blockbuster for the bulls.

• Retail inflation eased, supporting bullish sentiment.
• Industrial growth jumped to 3.5 percent, adding to optimism.
• Heavyweight sectors, particularly auto, banking, and FMCG, led the recovery.

The Indian market faced intense volatility throughout the day. A drastic fall followed by a rally was like watching a high-stakes drama unfold. But the Nifty50’s support around the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and its 38.2% retracement level sparked its incredible comeback. Will this bullish trend hold, and can we expect Nifty to reach the magic mark of 25,000 soon?

• Inverse head-and-shoulders pattern provided key support for the Nifty.
• 38.2% retracement level marked the low point before the sharp recovery.
• Market experts suggest Nifty has the potential to reach 25,000 in the short term.

The Road Ahead: A Strong Trend with Risks

Despite a turbulent day, market experts are optimistic. If the Nifty can hold above 24,700, it could break through 25,000 in the short term. On the downside, 24,550 offers support, but anything below this level could spell trouble.

• Sustaining above 24,700 is crucial for a continued rally.
• Support is placed at 24,550, with a potential to reach 25,000 in the short term.
• Market volatility and global cues are key risks to watch.

The final trading session of the week saw sharp swings, but Nifty managed to close near 24,768.30, almost 1 percent higher, defying the volatility. The broader indices mirrored this choppiness, but managed to stay flat, with sectors like IT, banking, and FMCG leading the gains. Yet, metals and realty lagged behind, closing in the red.

• Nifty closed 1 percent higher at 24,768.30, after sharp intraday swings.
• IT, banking, and FMCG sectors saw strong gains, while metals and realty struggled.

Unveiling the IT Sector’s Bright Future: What’s Fueling It?

The IT sector is on fire! Anticipation of a U.S. rate cut is lifting investor sentiment, especially in the tech space. Moreover, consumer spending is expected to pick up due to the festive season and year-end holidays, boosting the retail sector as well. Companies in FMCG and IT are showing resilience despite the global challenges.

• U.S. rate cut expectations are driving IT sector optimism.
• Consumer spending expected to rise with the festive season and holidays.
• FMCG and IT companies remain strong, despite global headwinds.

Can Retail Investors Join the Algo Trading Revolution?

In a move set to shake things up, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed a framework allowing retail investors to participate in algorithmic trading. This could unlock a new era of opportunities for the retail segment. However, algorithm approvals and audit trails are now key elements for brokers—could this change how you trade?

• SEBI’s new proposal could allow retail investors to participate in algorithmic trading.
• Brokers must seek exchange approval for each algorithm used.
• Unique identifiers will tag all algo orders for transparency and audits.

India Set to Join Quantum Satellite Race: A Hack-Proof Future

India is gearing up to join an elite group of countries by launching a quantum satellite—a revolutionary step toward securing communication networks against cyber threats. This satellite will be part of the National Quantum Mission (NQM), which aims to make India’s communications “completely safe” from quantum computers capable of breaking today’s encryption technologies.

• India’s quantum satellite will be crucial for hack-proof communications.
• The satellite will play a key role in quantum communications under the National Quantum Mission.
• The Department of Space plans to launch the satellite within 2-3 years.

According to Ajai Chowdhry, co-founder of HCL and chairman of the NQM’s Mission Governing Board, satellite-based communication will be essential for securing both national and international communications. This move will place India at the forefront of the quantum satellite race, securing communications across borders and ensuring the nation’s security against emerging cyber threats.

• Ajai Chowdhry confirms India’s leadership role in quantum communication.
• The NQM has set up four verticals, including computing, communication, measurement, and sensing, to incubate quantum technologies.
• The communications vertical aims to make India’s communication “completely safe” from quantum threats.

What’s Next for the Rupee, Crude Oil, and Global Markets?

As the Indian rupee closes stronger at 84.7875 against the US dollar, the global markets are testing their limits. In Europe, mixed sentiments persist after the European Central Bank’s rate cuts, while Asian markets falter, with Hong Kong and Shanghai showing steep declines. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rise, setting the stage for a 3% weekly gain, signaling a potential shift in energy market dynamics.

• Indian rupee strengthens at 84.7875 but remains under pressure for the week.
• Crude oil prices rise with a 3% weekly gain.
• Asian markets face declines, while European markets show mixed results.

Volatility Declines: Bullish Comfort Amid Uncertainty

In an unexpected turn, volatility has been on a steady decline for six consecutive sessions, reaching its lowest levels in nearly two months. The India VIX, a fear index that measures market volatility, dropped 1.04% to settle at 13.05. For the week, the VIX fell by 7.69%, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards more stability. This reduction in volatility has given further comfort to the bulls, suggesting that the market may be poised for more steady gains in the coming sessions.

• Volatility has declined for the sixth consecutive session, reaching a two-month low.
• India VIX dropped by 1.04% to 13.05.
• The decline in volatility signals comfort for bulls, indicating potential for further stability and growth.

The twists and turns in the Indian stock market are far from over. Will the Nifty50 sustain its gains and break past critical levels? And, as we approach the end of the week, what’s in store for the Sensex, Nifty, and sectors like IT, banking, and FMCG? Stay tuned—this market drama is just getting started!

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.69%

In a day full of ups and downs, the Bank Nifty showed resilience, bouncing back from a negative start. Despite opening in the red, it surged by 0.69 percent and closed the day strong at 53,583.80, finishing in the green. Similarly, the BSE Sensex followed suit, rising by 1.04 percent, closing at a high of 82,133.12, marking a solid recovery after a rough start.

In the sectorial front, the FMCG sector emerged as a standout, climbing 1.29 percent, led by ITC Ltd., which gained an impressive 2.26 percent, and Hindustan Unilever Ltd., which rose by 1.97 percent.

• FMCG sector gained 1.29 percent.
• ITC Ltd. surged by 2.26 percent.
• Hindustan Unilever Ltd. rose by 1.97 percent.

On the flip side, the Metal sector was the top loser, dipping by 0.72 percent. Within this sector, Steel Authority of India Ltd. took a significant hit, falling by -3.78 percent, while NMDC Ltd. dropped by -2.92 percent. These losses highlight the ongoing challenges in the metal industry, with declining investor confidence.

• NMDC Ltd. dropped by -2.92 percent.
• Metal sector was the top loser, falling by 0.72 percent.
• Steel Authority of India Ltd. lost -3.78 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers, with a buy value of Rs 15,968.39 crore and a sale value of Rs 13,633.07 crore, resulting in a net buy value of Rs 2,335.32 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) exhibited a different stance, being net sellers on the day. Their buy value stood at Rs 9,616.97 crore, while the sale value reached Rs 10,349.17 crore, resulting in a net sell value of Rs -732.20 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Kotak Bank with a 2.05% increase, ICICI Bank with a 1.22% increase, State Bank of India with a 0.96% increase, HDFC Bank with a 0.76% increase, and Axis Bank with a 0.55% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included IndusInd Bank with a 1.05% decline, Canara Bank with a 0.80% decline, AU Bank with a 0.57% decline, Bank of Baroda with a 0.46% decline, and IDFC First Bank with a 0.12% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 13th December, 2024

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,230	– ₹ 55
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,887	– ₹ 60
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,916	– ₹ 45

Silver / g	₹ 93.50	– ₹ 3
Silver / kg	₹ 93,500	– ₹ 3,000

Rupee Rebounds: A 10-Paise Gain Despite Global Headwinds

The Indian Rupee showed a remarkable recovery on Friday, closing 10 paise higher at 84.78 against the US dollar. This comeback was fueled by a strong rally in domestic equities and easing inflation data, providing a much-needed boost to the local currency.

• Rupee closes at 84.78, gaining 10 paise from its previous closing.
• The recovery was driven by strong domestic equity markets and easing inflation.
• Despite the rebound, the US dollar strength overseas and foreign fund outflows tempered the rupee’s upward momentum.

The rupee had previously touched an all-time low of 84.88 on Thursday, reflecting the pressure it had been under. However, the domestic recovery and inflation easing to 5.48% in November, along with expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in February, offered a ray of hope.

• Retail inflation eased to 5.48% in November, falling within the RBI’s comfort zone.
• IIP growth slowed to 3.5% in October 2024, well below last year’s 11.9%.

Even though the dollar index rose by 0.06% and crude oil prices saw a slight increase, the rupee’s 10 paise gain offers a glimmer of optimism. However, concerns around foreign fund outflows and the strengthening dollar may continue to limit further gains.

• Dollar index rose 0.06% to 106.70.
• Brent crude edged up by 0.54%, touching $73.81 per barrel.

As we move forward, will the rupee be able to hold its ground against the dollar, or will global pressures drag it back down?

Stocks Highlights

Bharti Airtel Ltd.: Bulls Take Charge, Strong Quarterly Performance

Bharti Airtel has experienced an impressive rally, with its stock price rising 4.44%, closing at Rs 1,682.00, compared to the previous close of Rs 1,610.55. The company also saw quarterly topline growth of 7.35%, marking its highest in the last 3 years.

• Stock Price surged 4.44% to Rs 1,682.00.
• Quarterly revenue growth of 7.35%, the highest in the last 3 years.
• Bulls in the driving seat, with a 50-day moving average crossover signaling a buy.
• 3-year return of 129.06% vs Nifty 100’s return of 44.0%.

Notably, a 50-day moving average crossover appeared yesterday, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Historically, this crossover has led to an average price gain of 3.43% within 30 days over the past 5 years. However, the company has also spent 15.1% of its operating revenues on interest expenses and 3.55% on employee costs for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024.

• Interest expenses account for 15.1% of operating revenues.
• Employee cost is 3.55% of revenues for FY24.

Shriram Finance Ltd.: A Dip Amid Solid Returns

On the flip side, Shriram Finance Ltd. saw a decline of -2.44%, with its stock closing at Rs 3,169.00, down from Rs 3,248.10 previously. Despite the dip, Shriram Finance has delivered a strong 3-year return of 120.11%, outperforming both Nifty 100 (44.0% return) and the Nifty Financial Services Index (36.54% return).

• Stock Price dropped -2.44% to Rs 3,169.00.
• 3-year return of 120.11%, outperforming Nifty 100 and Nifty Financial Services.

However, the company’s interest expenses are a concern, accounting for 42.67% of its operating revenues. Additionally, its employee cost is 9.54% of operating revenues for the year ending March 31, 2024.

• Interest expenses make up 42.67% of operating revenues.
• Employee cost is 9.54% of revenues for FY24.

Summary:

• Bharti Airtel shows bullish momentum, with impressive revenue growth and strong returns, though rising interest costs are a consideration.
• Shriram Finance faces a dip in stock price, but its outstanding returns over the past 3 years and higher expenses are worth watching closely.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.75 and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.04 to settle at 13.05 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1191
Decliners – 1589
52Wk High – 83
52Wk Low – 18
High Band Hitters – 82
Low Band Hitters – 73
200d SMA – 23781
50d SMA – 24412
20d SMA – 24214

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Bharti Airtel (+4.44%), ITC (+2.26%), Kotak Bank (+2.05%), Hindustan Unilever (+1.97%), and UltraTech Cement (+1.90%).

The top losers were Shriram Finance (-2.44%), Tata Steel (-1.31%), IndusInd Bank (-1.05%), JSW Steel (-0.86%), and Hindalco (-0.55%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were FMCG (+1.29%), Consumer Durables (+0.97%), IT (+0.64%), Financial Services (+0.62%), and Auto (+0.48%).

The top losers sectors were Metal (-0.72%), Media (-0.59%), Realty (-0.44%), and Pharma (-0.32%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
FMCG +1.29%
CONSUMER DURABLES +0.97%
IT +0.64%
METAL -0.72%
MEDIA -0.59%
REALTY -0.44%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (NATIONALUM close at +226.46), (GRANULES close at -584.80), (HINDCOPPER close at +291.95), (RBLBANK close at -173.25), (METROPOLIS close at -2224.00), and (PVRINOX close at -1455.20) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

SAIL, BANDHANBNK, ABFRL, PNB, IGL, and AARTIIND stocks has the possibilities of entrants in the ban list.

PVRINOX stocks has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

S2	S1	P	R1	R2
23969	24369	24580	24980	25192

As per the above pivots data, 24200 to 25000 is the Nifty 50 trading range.  

More Links to View
GIFT NIFTY
BSE Sensex
FII Data

Read Previous -Daily Insights- here
Nifty 50 Struggles Amid CPI Data and Global Volatility: Will IT Stocks Lead the Way or Will Market Correct?
Continuation of Range-Bound Trading. Will the Nifty break free, or is it stuck in a waiting game?

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.