Nifty Opens Strong and Closes Higher Amid Market Volatility: Will it Break Through Resistance Levels or Encounter Headwinds?

NiftyTrader • November 29, 2024

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Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,131.10	+216.95	+0.91%
Nifty MidCap 50	15,697.75	+35.90	+0.23%
Nifty SmallCap 50	8,984.95	+84.80	+0.95%
Nifty Bank	52,055.60	+148.75	+0.29%
Nifty Financial	24,010.15	+90.55	+0.38%
BSE SENSEX	79,802.79	+759.05	+0.96%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,131.10 up by 0.91%

Nifty 50 started strong today, gaining 0.91% and closing at 24,131.10, fueled by buying in heavyweights like Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel. This marks a rebound after the sharp drop in the previous session, as traders adjusted positions ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry. But is this rally sustainable?

Key Highlights of the Day:

Nifty’s Strong Close: The index ended up 216.95 points higher, finishing the day at 24,131.10.
Investor Wealth Soars: Market capitalization of BSE-listed companies increased by around ₹3.49 lakh crore, reaching ₹446.47 lakh crore.
Sectoral Performance: Pharma, energy, and auto sectors led the charge, while smallcaps mirrored the benchmark. However, realty and PSU banks lagged behind.

A Bullish Comeback:

After a steep decline the previous day, the Nifty 50 started December’s F&O series on a strong note, rising nearly 1%. The index found support at 23,900 and bounced back to 24,131, filling the bullish gap of November 25. The bulls seem to be back in control, with further upside expected as the Nifty eyes the immediate resistance levels around 24,350-24,360.

What’s Next for Nifty?

Support & Resistance: The 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is providing immediate support near 24,080, while a strong resistance lies near 24,350-24,360.
Volatility Declines: The India VIX cooled off by 5.12%, reflecting a drop in market volatility, which could signal more stable trading conditions ahead.

The Nifty’s current strength suggests a potential continuation of the rally, especially if IT and banking sectors remain resilient. Traders may want to focus on stock selection based on relative strength, with large-caps and quality mid-caps leading the way. However, the upside will be capped if the Nifty continues to struggle below 24,360, suggesting profit-booking could be wise for those riding the rally.

Global Markets: Mixed Sentiments Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Asian markets showed mixed results. Shanghai and Hong Kong closed in the green, but Seoul and Tokyo saw losses.
U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, but global sentiment remains cautious due to potential trade disruptions following Donald Trump’s election victory, particularly with his focus on 25% tariffs on key trading partners, including China.

India’s GDP Growth Slows to 5.4% in Q2 FY25: What Does This Mean for the Market?

India’s economy grew at just 5.4% in Q2 FY25, down from 6.7% in Q1. This slowdown is attributed to weaker consumption, adverse weather, and inflation pressures.
Corporate earnings have already reflected this slowdown, which the market appears to have largely priced in.

Despite global headwinds, the Indian market shows signs of resilience, thanks to strong sectoral performances and robust earnings. With volatility decreasing and key sectors holding up well, investors should stay cautiously optimistic, keeping a close watch on sectoral trends and support levels.

In Focus: Pharma and Healthcare

The pharma and healthcare sectors have seen a renewed surge, fueled by strong earnings and moderating valuations after recent corrections. Could this sector continue to outperform in the coming weeks?

SEBI Takes the Spotlight at India International Trade Fair
In other news, SEBI won the Gold Medal for its public communication and outreach efforts at the India International Trade Fair (IITF), highlighting its ongoing efforts to educate and engage with investors.

Market Strategy Moving Forward:

Profit-booking might be prudent as the Nifty faces resistance near 24,360.
Stock selection will be key, with focus on large-cap and select small-cap stocks showing strong recent performance.

Will the Nifty breach its resistance levels, or will it face headwinds? Traders should be ready to adjust their strategies based on how global and domestic factors play out in the coming days.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.29%

The Bank Nifty opened positively, rising by 0.29% early in the day and maintaining its strength throughout, ultimately closing at 52,055.60. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex also followed suit, climbing 0.96% to close at an impressive 79,802.79, continuing its recent upward trend.

In the sectorial front, the Pharma sector has recently shown impressive growth, with a notable increase of 2.35%. Within this sector, Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. outperformed expectations, seeing a surge of 3.97%, while Divi’s Laboratories Ltd. followed closely behind with a 3.89% rise.

On the flip side, the Realty sector has faced some challenges, emerging as the top loser with a decline of 0.51%. This downturn was further exacerbated by the performances of key players such as Macrotech Developers Ltd., which saw a 2.11% drop, and The Phoenix Mills Ltd., which experienced a 2.02% decrease.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers on the day, offloading equities worth a massive ₹19,169.90 crore, while only buying ₹14,786.35 crore. This resulted in a net outflow of ₹4,383.55 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) displayed a more bullish stance. They bought shares worth ₹15,201.68 crore, while their sales amounted to ₹9,478.34 crore, resulting in a net inflow of ₹5,723.34 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included ICICI Bank with a 0.96% increase, Axis Bank with a 0.40% increase, HDFC Bank with a 0.13% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.12% increase, and IndusInd Bank with a 0.09% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Punjab National Bank with a 1.35% decline, Bank of Baroda with a 1.08% decline, Canara Bank with a 0.88% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 0.42% decline, and AU Bank with a 0.22% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 29th November, 2024

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,160	+ ₹ 67
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,811	+ ₹ 76
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,858	+ ₹ 57

Silver / g	₹ 91.50	+ ₹ 2
Silver / kg	₹ 91,500	+ ₹ 2,000

Rupee Faces Stormy November: Worst Month Since March Amid Dollar’s Soaring Strength

November proved to be a harrowing month for the Indian rupee, marking its steepest decline since March. As the dollar gained unstoppable momentum post Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. election, the rupee found itself on shaky ground. But is there more turbulence ahead?

Rupee Teeters Near Lifetime Low

The rupee closed at 84.4825 against the dollar on Friday, holding steady for the day but dangerously close to its all-time low of 84.5075, reached just last week. For the month, the currency slid by nearly 0.5%, painting a worrying picture for investors.

The Trump Effect: A Dollar Power Surge

Since Trump’s November 5th election victory, the dollar has surged, rattling emerging market currencies. The dollar index climbed 2% in November, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a high of 4.50%, its loftiest level since July.

This dollar rally, paired with rising yields, sent shockwaves through global markets, pulling $1.7 billion out of Indian stocks and bonds in November alone. This adds to an already worrying $11.5 billion outflow in October, leaving investors wondering: Is this the start of a long-term exodus?

RBI’s Defence: A Shield or Temporary Relief?

Despite these challenges, the rupee has managed to outperform many of its regional peers. Thanks to frequent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the currency has avoided sharper losses. However, traders speculate that the RBI may allow gradual depreciation to manage the broader impact.

What Lies Ahead?

As Trump’s administration prepares to take office in January, global markets remain on edge. With trade tariffs and other policies under scrutiny, emerging market currencies like the rupee could remain volatile. Will the RBI’s interventions continue to hold the line, or will external pressures push the rupee to new lows?

Key Highlights for November:

Rupee closed at 84.4825, near its lifetime low of 84.5075.
November saw a 0.5% decline, the steepest since March.
Foreign outflows crossed $1.7 billion, adding to October’s massive $11.5 billion outflow.
The dollar index rose 2%, while U.S. Treasury yields soared to 4.50%.
RBI’s interventions remain a key stabilizer, but how long can they last?

The rupee’s fate in the coming months could hinge on global economic policies, investor sentiment, and the RBI’s strategic moves. Will it weather the storm, or face new lows?

Stocks Highlights

Bharti Airtel Soars, But Are Storm Clouds Looming?
What should investors make of the mixed signals?

Bharti Airtel Ltd. dazzled the markets with a 4.40% jump in its share price, closing at ₹1,629.00, up from its previous close of ₹1,560.40. The rally is backed by the company’s stellar quarterly performance, showing a 7.35% QoQ revenue growth, the best in three years. But can this momentum hold?

Highlights of Bharti Airtel’s Surge

Topline Triumph: The 7.35% revenue growth underscores robust operational performance.
Market Optimism: Investors appear bullish, driving the stock to its recent peak.

However, technical indicators hint at potential turbulence:

Bearish Signals Emerge

14-Day Moving Crossover: This signal appeared yesterday, historically leading to an average price drop of -1.88% within 7 days over the last 5 years.
10-Day Moving Crossover: Another bearish trend indicator showed up, with an average decline of -2.03% in the same timeframe.

Cost Pressures to Watch Bharti Airtel spent 15.1% of its revenues on interest expenses and 3.55% on employee costs for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Will rising costs weigh on future margins?

Power Grid Corporation Stumbles: Is a Bearish Wave Building?
Is the energy giant headed for further losses?

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. saw its share price decline by -1.35%, closing at ₹329.15, down from its previous close of ₹333.65. While the drop appears modest, a closer look reveals bearish signals that may suggest more downside ahead.

Intraday Insights In the past 17 years, only 1.11% of trading sessions have recorded intraday declines exceeding 5%. This highlights the rarity of extreme moves, but also the possibility of more subtle downward trends.

Bearish Indicators Flash Warning Signs

5-Day Moving Crossover: This pattern, observed yesterday, has historically resulted in an average price decline of -2.04% within 7 days.

Cost Challenges Power Grid spent 19.14% of its revenues on interest expenses and 5.31% on employee costs for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Are these high costs eroding profitability?

Investor Takeaway

Bharti Airtel’s growth story is compelling, but looming bearish signals could indicate a cooling-off period.
Power Grid Corporation faces near-term pressure, with bearish trends suggesting further declines.

What’s your strategy in these volatile times? Will you ride the highs or prepare for the lows?

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.69 and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 5.12 to settle at 14.43 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1752
Decliners – 1034
52Wk High – 66
52Wk Low – 20
High Band Hitters – 115
Low Band Hitters – 36
200d SMA – 23647
50d SMA – 24666
20d SMA – 23982

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Bharti Airtel (+4.40%), Sun Pharmaceutical (+2.87%), Cipla (+2.63%), M&M (+2.58%), and Tata Consumer (+1.90%).

The top losers were Power Grid (-1.35%), Shriram Finance (-0.93%), Hero MotoCorp (-0.39%), HDFC Life (-0.26%), and Nestle India (-0.06%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were Pharma (+2.35%), Media (+1.45%), Oil & Gas (+1.25%), Auto (+1.01%), and Consumer Durables (+0.97%).

The top losers sectors were Realty (-0.51%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
PHARMA +2.35%
MEDIA +1.45%
OIL & GAS +1.25%
REALTY-0.51%

Stocks Ban List

No stocks are included in SEBI’s F&O ban list today.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.