Nifty Dips Below 22,000 as Selling Intensifies After Positive Opening

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 21,997.70 down by 1.51%

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 commenced with optimism today but saw a significant decline of 1.51%, closing below the crucial threshold of 22,000. Market sentiment was dominated by broad-based selling and continued weakness in the mid and small-cap segments, unnerving investors.

Despite a positive start fueled by moderate Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and steady industrial production growth, the market couldn’t sustain gains. Selling pressure intensified in the latter half of the trading session, pushing the Nifty below 22,000 and ending the day at 21,997.70, down by 338.00 points.

Technical analysis reveals a breakdown from a rising channel on the daily chart, indicating the conclusion of the previous uptrend and the potential beginning of a downtrend. Furthermore, the index has breached the recent consolidation phase on the daily timeframe, highlighting mounting weakness.

Globally, uncertainties persist as concerns over the US inflation rate challenge the Federal Reserve’s ability to implement rate cuts. However, easing trends in global commodity prices may prompt central banks to consider rate cuts later in 2024, potentially benefiting equity markets.

Amidst this turbulence, FMCG and contrarian investments like gold offer some respite. Although mid and small-cap stocks face challenges due to premium valuations, no fundamental issues impede their long-term growth prospects. Investors are urged to navigate cautiously, keeping a close watch on both domestic and global developments to make informed decisions in these volatile times.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.64%

The Bank Nifty commenced trading with a positive bias, opening in the green, but eventually experienced a decline of 0.64%, closing in the red at 46,981.30. Similarly, the BSE Sensex faced a downtrend, dropping by 1.23% and closing at a low of 72,761.89.

Despite the initial optimism reflected in the opening, both indices encountered selling pressure throughout the trading session, leading to their respective declines by the day’s end. This downturn aligns with the broader market trend observed on March 13, characterized by widespread selling and heightened volatility.

On the sectoral front, the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector is displaying promising growth, witnessing a notable increase of 0.05%. Within this sector, ITC Ltd. has particularly excelled, marking a significant gain of 4.34%.

Conversely, the Metal sector is experiencing a downturn, with a substantial decline of 5.69%. Among the key players in this sector, National Aluminium Company Ltd. is facing a notable setback with a loss of -10.91%. Similarly, Steel Authority Of India Ltd. and NMDC Ltd. are also grappling with losses, standing at -8.94% and -8.59% respectively.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) recorded a buy value of Rs. 33,223.63 crore and a sale value of Rs. 37,818.69 crore, resulting in a net value of -Rs. 4,595.06 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) exhibited robust activity, with a buy value of Rs. 20,267.90 crore and a sale value of Rs. 11,174.18 crore, leading to a net value of Rs. 9,093.72 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included ICICI Bank with a 0.48% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.29% increase, and HDFC Bank with a 0.01% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bandhan Bank with a 6.28% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 5.92% decline, Bank of Baroda with a 4.29% decline, Federal Bank with a 3.10% decline, and IDFC First Bank with a 2.83% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Rupee Declines Against US Dollar Amid Market Sell-off

The Indian rupee faced a setback, declining by 5 paise to settle at 82.85 (pro) against the US dollar, reflecting a widespread selloff in domestic markets. Market sentiment remains cautious, with the rupee expected to trade with a slightly negative bias due to the recovery of the greenback and concerns over elevated crude oil prices.

Trading within a range of 82.82 to 82.91 against the dollar, the rupee opened at 82.82 at the interbank foreign exchange market. Despite reaching an intra-day high of 82.82, it eventually settled at 82.85, marking a 5-paise loss from the previous close.

Tuesday witnessed the rupee consolidating within a narrow range, ending 5 paise lower at 82.80 against the US dollar. Factors contributing to this negative sentiment include weakness in domestic markets and extended selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Additionally, elevated crude oil prices further weigh on the rupee’s performance, with expectations for the USD/INR spot price to fluctuate between Rs. 82.70 to Rs. 83.10.

Amidst these developments, the dollar index, representing the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, saw a marginal increase of 0.04% to 102.99. Simultaneously, Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose by 1.26% to $82.95 per barrel, adding to concerns over inflationary pressures. Investors are advised to monitor market dynamics closely and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate through this period of volatility.

Stocks Highlights

ITC Ltd.: The share price of ITC Ltd. surged by 4.34% to reach Rs 422.00, up from its previous close of Rs 404.45. Notably, only 0.8% of trading sessions in the last 19 years witnessed intraday declines higher than 5%, showcasing the stock’s historical stability. Additionally, the company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, outperforming its 3-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) with an annual revenue growth of 16.66%. However, a sell signal emerged as a 14-day moving crossover occurred on Mar 11, 2024, typically resulting in an average price decline of -1.89% within 7 days.

Moreover, the company’s prudent financial management is evident as it spent less than 1% of its operating revenues on interest expenses and 8.09% towards employee costs in the fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2023.

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.: In contrast, the share price of Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. witnessed a decline of -7.07% to settle at Rs 265.00 from its previous close of Rs 285.15. While only 1.11% of trading sessions in the last 16 years experienced intraday declines exceeding 5%, the company faces challenges, particularly with higher interest expenses. Notably, it allocated 21.14% of its operating revenues towards interest expenses and 5.5% towards employee costs in the fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2023.

Similar to ITC Ltd., Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. also triggered a sell signal with a 14-day moving crossover on Mar 11, 2024, typically leading to an average price decline of -1.95% within 7 days. Additionally, a bearish trend intensified as a 10-day moving crossover emerged on the same date, with an average price decline of -1.86% within 7 days.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.06, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix increased by 5.82 percent to settle at 14.43 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 148
Decliners – 2443
52Wk High –  17
52Wk Low – 161
High Band Hitters – 10
Low Band Hitters – 496
200d SMA – 20226
50d SMA – 21890
20d SMA – 22206

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were ITC (+4.34%), ICICI Bank (+0.48%), Kotak Bank (+0.29%), Bajaj Finance (+0.22%), and Cipla (+0.13%).

The top losers were Power Grid (-7.07%), Coal India (-7.00%), Adani Enterprises (-6.81%), NTPC (-6.70%), and Adani Ports (-6.47%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were FMCG (+0.05%).

The top losers sector were Metal (-5.69%), Media (-5.62%), Realty (-5.32%), Oil & Gas (-4.87%), and Auto (-2.84%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
FMCG +0.05%
METAL -5.69%
MEDIA -5.62%
REALTY -5.32%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (NATIONALUM open at -152.00 and close at -136.15), (SAIL open at -130.00 and close at -118.70), (PEL open at -860.05 and close at -822.85), (ABFRL open at -213.80 and close at -200.35), (TATACHEM open at -1146.00 and close at -1097.45), (HINDCOPPER open at -256.70 and close at -235.05), (MANAPPURAM open at +169.55 and close at -160.30), (ZEEL open at +157.50 and close at -145.25), and (MGL open at +1311.20 and close at -1220.30) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

BHEL, PVRINOX, RBLBANK, GNFC, BIOCON, BANDHANBNK, INDUSTOWER, and IDEA stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

MGL, stock has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 21700 to 22400 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.