Global Cues Drive Benchmark Indices to New Highs, but Volatility Sets In

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 23,516.00 down by 0.18%

The NSE Nifty 50 experienced a day of fluctuating fortunes on June 19, beginning positively but ultimately closing in the red, albeit above the crucial 23,500 mark. Indian benchmark indices navigated through a highly volatile session, showcasing mixed performance despite hitting fresh all-time highs intraday.

The Nifty started the day in the green but slid by 0.18%, closing at 23,516.00, marking a loss of 41.90 points. The session witnessed intense volatility, with the index gyrating between gains and losses throughout the trading hours. Mid and Smallcap segments initially led a correction, dragging the index lower, but a strong performance by banking counters helped it recover losses momentarily.

Despite a five-day winning streak being snapped, the overall trend remains positive. However, technical analysis reveals the formation of a bearish candlestick pattern, signaling a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. The market action indicates the emergence of a Bearish Engulfing pattern, suggestive of caution despite the absence of a classical reversal pattern.

Nifty’s performance reflected a lackluster day, largely confined within the range of 23450 and 23650. However, sentiment continues to lean towards short-term bullish trades, supported by the index’s sustained position above the 55 exponential moving average (EMA) on the hourly chart.

Despite a late sell-off, both the benchmark Sensex and Nifty50 managed to achieve fresh record highs, primarily propelled by gains in private bank and IT stocks. This surge was fueled by the release of soft U.S. retail sales data, which heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

While market volatility persists, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with investors closely monitoring global cues and technical signals for further insights into market movements. Stay updated with our daily reports for comprehensive analysis and insights into market trends. 

Bank Nifty: Up by 1.90%

Bank Nifty Shines: The Bank Nifty index, a benchmark for banking stocks, had a strong showing. It opened with a significant gain of 1.90% and maintained its momentum, closing in the green at 51,398.05.

Sensex Climbs Modestly: The broader market Sensex index also closed higher, gaining a more modest 0.05%. However, it did manage to reach a new high of 77,337.59 during the trading session.

Winners and losers on a sectoral level, the financial services sector emerged as the star performer, surging by a healthy 1.59%. Leading the charge were banking giants Axis Bank and HDFC Bank, which rose by an impressive 3.11% and 3.06% respectively.

On the flip side, the realty sector turned out to be the biggest drag, plummeting 2.83%. Companies like The Phoenix Mills and Brigade Enterprises bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with their stocks declining by a significant 3.85% and 3.75% respectively.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) exhibited robust buying activity in the Indian markets. The buy value for FIIs/FPIs stood at Rs. 24,852.22 crore, while the sale value was Rs. 16,943.86 crore. This resulted in a net purchase value of Rs. 7,908.36 crore, indicating strong foreign investor confidence in the Indian equity market.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also demonstrated significant market participation. The DIIs recorded a buy value of Rs. 22,548.24 crore against a sale value of Rs. 15,440.44 crore. This culminated in a net purchase value of Rs. 7,107.80 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Axis Bank with a 3.11% increase, HDFC Bank with a 3.06% increase, ICICI Bank with a 1.92% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 1.86% increase, and Kotak Bank with a 1.49% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included AU Bank with a 1.25% decline, and Bank of Baroda with a 0.87% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Gold Holds Steady Amidst US Holiday and Rate Cut Speculation

Rangebound Trading: On Comex, gold prices traded within a narrow range of $2,327 to $2,335 per ounce. Similarly, the MCX in India saw gold fluctuate between Rs. 71,625 and Rs. 71,880 per 10 grams.

Potential Base Formation: Analysts suggest a possible base forming around $2,300-$2,315 per ounce, with resistance at $2,345-$2,360. A breakout from this range, either upwards or downwards, could signal a more significant price movement.

Fed Policy and US Elections: The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains a key factor influencing gold prices. While the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, recent US economic data like CPI and retail sales hints at potential rate cuts later in the year. Additionally, the upcoming US elections in the second half of 2024 could further impact investor sentiment towards gold.

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Rupee Ends Lower Amid Market Volatility

Rupee Settles 1 Paisa Lower Against US Dollar
On Wednesday, the rupee pared its initial gains and settled 1 paisa lower at 83.44 (pro) against the US dollar, mirroring the choppy performance of the domestic equity markets at the end of the session. The local currency initially showed strength, opening at 83.39, and traded within a range of 83.34 to 83.48 during the session. Ultimately, it registered a slight decline from the previous close of 83.43.

The rupee’s gaining momentum was halted by a stronger US dollar and elevated crude oil prices in the global market. The firming of the American currency, coupled with the rise in crude oil prices, weighed on the local unit, contributing to its subdued performance.

The rupee exhibited volatility throughout the trading session, initially displaying strength but eventually succumbing to pressures as the dollar index found support near 104.80. Market analysts predict that the rupee will continue to trade within a volatile range of 83.25 to 83.60 against the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher by 0.01% to 104.88. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, saw a minor decline of 0.13%, settling at $85.22 per barrel. These global market trends played a crucial role in the rupee’s performance.

The rupee’s marginal decline against the US dollar reflects the interplay of domestic and international market factors. Investors and market participants should brace for continued volatility, keeping an eye on global cues such as the dollar index and crude oil prices for further direction. For detailed analysis and updates on currency movements, stay connected with our financial insights.

Stocks Highlights

Axis Bank Ltd. witnessed a notable increase in its share price, climbing by 3.11% from its previous close of Rs 1,191.90 to a last traded price of Rs 1,229.00. Intraday analysis reveals that only 2.7% of trading sessions over the past 19 years have seen intraday gains exceeding 5%, highlighting the significance of today’s performance.

Loan Book Growth: Axis Bank reported a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 15.08% in its advances, surpassing its five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.38%. This robust growth underscores the bank’s expanding loan portfolio and strong financial health.

Revenue Growth: The company achieved an annual revenue growth of 29.99%, outperforming its three-year CAGR of 19.29%. This impressive growth rate indicates a consistent upward trajectory in Axis Bank’s financial performance.

Bullish Signal: A bullish trend appears to be on the horizon, as evidenced by a five-day moving crossover that occurred yesterday. Historically, such signals have resulted in an average price gain of 2.76% within seven days over the past five years.

In contrast, Titan Company Ltd. experienced a decrease in its share price, dropping by 3.60% from its previous close of Rs 3,589.00 to a last traded price of Rs 3,459.75. Notably, only 2.92% of trading sessions over the past 19 years have recorded intraday gains above 5%, emphasizing today’s downturn.

Return on Equity (ROE): Titan delivered a remarkable ROE of 37.21% for the year ending March 31, 2024, outperforming its five-year average of 25.48%. This exceptional ROE demonstrates the company’s efficiency in generating profits from its equity base.

Expenses Management: Titan allocated 1.21% of its operating revenues to interest expenses and 3.65% to employee costs for the year ending March 31, 2024. Effective management of these expenses reflects the company’s operational efficiency.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.65, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix increased by 5.76 to settle at 13.71 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1039
Decliners – 1602
52Wk High – 227
52Wk Low – 9
High Band Hitters – 124
Low Band Hitters – 47
200d SMA – 21272
50d SMA – 22627
20d SMA – 22987

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Axis Bank (+3.11%), HDFC Bank (+3.06%), ICICI Bank (+1.92%), IndusInd Bank (+1.86%), and Kotak Bank (+1.49%).

The top losers were Titan (-3.60%), Maruti (-2.60%), Bharti Airtel (-2.41%), Bajaj Auto (-2.40%), and BPCL (-2.32%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Financial Services (+1.59%), and IT (+0.36%).

The top losers sector were Realty (-2.83%), Consumer Durables (-1.96%), Oil & Gas (-1.74%), Auto (-1.30%), and Media (-1.29%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
FINANCIAL SERVICES +1.59%
IT +0.36%
REALTY -2.83%
PHARMA -1.96%
OIL & GAS -1.74%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (PEL open at +909.90 and close at -898.75), (BALRAMCHIN open at +431.25 and close at +440.85), (GNFC open at +710.00 and close at -696.95), (HINDCOPPER open at -333.35 and close at -326.80), (INDIACEM open at -222.00 and close at -218.60), (SUNTV open at +763.95 and close at +766.85), and (SAIL open at -154.05 and close at -149.95) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

PNB, HAL, INDUSTOWER, IEX, BSOFT, LICHSGFIN, BANDHANBNK, BIOCON, OFSS, IRCTC, and CHAMBLFERT stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

SAIL stock has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 23300 to 23750 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.