FY24 Ends with Market Poised to Smash Records on Final Trading Day

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 22,326.90 up by 0.92%

Indian equities concluded the fiscal year 2023-24 on an optimistic trajectory, propelled by a robust start that saw the NSE Nifty 50 surging by 0.92 percent and closing in the green above the 22,300 mark. The market exhibited resilience throughout the day, buoyed by a flurry of factors including FII buying, favorable global cues, and a notable rally in heavyweight stocks.

Amidst this upbeat sentiment, both the Nifty and Sensex witnessed substantial gains, with the former climbing by 203.25 points, marking a 0.92 percent increase to settle at 22,326.90. Although intraday highs were reached, a late-hour selling spree curtailed some gains. Nevertheless, there’s palpable optimism permeating the market, underscored by a discernible breakout in consolidation on the daily timeframe.

Looking ahead, investor attention is expected to pivot towards full-year earnings announcements, particularly in sectors like banking and IT. Despite potential fluctuations fueled by expensive valuations, investor confidence remains bullish, underscoring a sustained appetite for equity assets in the upcoming financial year.

Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap stocks have emerged as frontrunners, bouncing back from earlier sell-offs. However, a looming concern revolves around the premium valuations of mid-cap stocks, emphasizing the need for cautious monitoring in the short to medium term.

Externally, US markets witnessed gains, setting new records, while Asian and European markets mirrored the positive sentiment. Anticipation mounts ahead of crucial US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, with investors eyeing potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite uncertainties, experts like Steven Blitz foresee continued market rally, irrespective of the Fed’s decision on interest rates, signaling a promising outlook for global equities.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.72%

The Bank Nifty and BSE Sensex displayed notable gains, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor optimism. The Bank Nifty commenced trading on a bullish note, opening in the green with a 0.72 percent increase, ultimately closing at 47,124.60 in the green. Likewise, the BSE Sensex recorded a significant uptrend, rising by 0.90 percent and concluding the session at a high of 73,651.35, also in the green.

In the sectorial front, the automotive sector surged ahead with a notable gain of 1.29%. Notably, Hero Motocorp Ltd. led the charge with an impressive 3.44% increase, closely followed by Eicher Motors Ltd. which saw a gain of 2.87%. However, contrasting this positive movement, the media sector experienced a decline, marking a decrease of 0.70%. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. faced a notable loss of -1.84%, while Network18 Media & Investments Ltd. recorded a decline of -1.60%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) engaged in Indian markets with a buy value of Rs. 24,808.78 crore and a sale value of Rs. 24,620.47 crore, resulting in a net value of Rs. 188.31 crore. This signifies continued interest and involvement of foreign investors in Indian equities.

On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) displayed robust activity, with a buy value of Rs. 12,428.24 crore and a sale value of Rs. 9,736.72 crore, resulting in a significant net value of Rs. 2,691.52 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included State Bank of India with a 2.68% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 2.18% increase, Punjab National Bank with a 1.34% increase, ICICI Bank with a 1.13% increase, and IndusInd Bank with a 1.06% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included IDFC First Bank with a 2.96% decline, Axis Bank with a 0.60% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 0.53% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Indian Rupee Declines Amidst Dollar Strength and Rising Oil Prices

The Indian rupee witnessed a depreciation of 6 paise, settling at 83.39 (pro) against the US dollar on Thursday. This decline was primarily influenced by a strengthening US dollar against major currencies worldwide and the surge in crude oil prices in international markets.

Despite these challenges, the domestic currency found support from a firm trend in domestic equity markets and recent inflows of foreign funds. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.32, fluctuating between the intra-day high of 83.30 and the low of 83.40 against the greenback before finally settling at 83.39 (pro), marking a loss of 6 paise from the previous close.

The rupee’s performance on Thursday followed a similar trend observed on Wednesday, where it had declined by 4 paise to close at 83.33 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, reflecting the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, saw a 0.34% increase, reaching 104.42.

Factors contributing to the rupee’s depreciation included strong demand for the US dollar, particularly from oil marketing companies (OMCs). Additionally, weak Asian currencies and the uptick in crude oil prices further weighed on the rupee. Nevertheless, the resilience of domestic markets and the influx of foreign institutional investments (FIIs) helped mitigate the downside pressure.

In the global oil market, Brent crude futures, the benchmark for global oil prices, rose by 0.52% to $86.54 per barrel, indicating ongoing volatility in the energy sector that could continue to impact currency movements in the near term.

Stocks Highlights

Grasim Industries Ltd. witnessed a notable increase in its share price, rising by 4.42% from its previous close of Rs 2,207.35 to reach Rs 2,305.00. Notably, only 1.09% of trading sessions in the last 19 years saw intraday declines higher than 5%, indicating relative stability. The company’s annual revenue growth of 25.61% outperformed its 3-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.61%. However, a bearish trend signal emerged with a 5-day moving crossover, historically leading to an average price decline of -2.42% within 7 days. Despite this, the stock offered a 3-year return of 57.04%, surpassing the Nifty 100’s return of 55.11%.

In contrast, Shriram Finance Ltd. observed a decrease in its share price by -1.10%, trading at Rs 2,360.00 from its previous close of Rs 2,386.35. In the last 19 years, only 3.42% of trading sessions witnessed intraday gains higher than 5%, showcasing relative stability. The company’s annual revenue growth of 58.29% surpassed its 3-year CAGR of 22.3%, indicating robust performance. A bullish signal emerged with a 20-day moving crossover on Mar 26, 2024, historically resulting in an average price gain of 3.73% within 7 days. Shriram Finance Ltd. provided a 3-year return of 66.98%, outperforming the Nifty 100’s return of 55.11%.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.11, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix increased by 1.02 percent to settle at 12.83 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1348
Decliners – 1217
52Wk High –  55
52Wk Low – 89
High Band Hitters – 132
Low Band Hitters – 113
200d SMA – 20399
50d SMA – 21954
20d SMA – 22177

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Grasim (+4.42%), Bajaj Finserv (+4.07%), Hero MotoCorp (+3.44%), Bajaj Finance (+3.02%), and Eicher Motors (+2.87%).

The top losers were Shriram Finance (-1.10%), Axis Bank (-0.60%), Bajaj Auto (-0.60%), Tech Mahindra (-0.54%), and Reliance (-0.52%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were Auto (+1.29%), Metal (+1.25%), Pharma (+1.21%), Financial Services (+0.95%), and Consumer Durables (+0.83%).

The top losers sector were Media (-0.70%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
AUTO +1.29%
METAL +1.25%
PHARMA +1.21%
MEDIA -0.70%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (ZEEL open at +143.00 and close at -138.55), and (HINDCOPPER open at +287.00 and close at -278.05) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

TATACHEM, INDIACEM, IDEA, NATIONALUM, BANDHANBNK, INDUSTOWER, and ABFRL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 22100 to 22600 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read previous -Daily Insights- here
Stock-Specific Actions and Economic Growth Forecast Drive Market to Positive Closure
Selling Pressure Ends Three-Day Winning Streak, Nifty Drops Below 22,000
Nifty 50 Ends Higher Despite IT Sector Slump

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.