Will Global Weakness and Profit Booking Derail Dalal Street Before the Union Budget?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,530.90 down by 1.09%

Today, NSE Nifty 50 opened in the red and dropped by 1.09%, closing below the critical 24,550 mark. The index couldn’t hold above 24,800, losing ground amid rising volatility as we edge closer to Budget week. Intraday resilience was noted at 24,500, but persistent weakness could push levels down to 24,200 or even 24,000.

A Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged, often signaling a potential top reversal. Coupled with negative divergence and crossover on momentum indicators, this suggests continued short-term weakness. Despite forming higher highs for nine consecutive weeks, the index’s bearish candlestick pattern with a long upper shadow hints at selling pressure at elevated levels.

Realty and metal stocks dragged the market, breaking their four-day winning streak as investors booked profits ahead of the upcoming budget. The broader market extended its losses, with midcap and smallcap indices falling significantly. This underperformance in the broader market contrasts with the resilience in large caps, suggesting a sustainable rally without overheating.

As global sentiment remains weak and profit-booking persists, what surprises does the Union Budget 2024 hold for investors next week?

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.67%

The Bank Nifty opened in red, dipping by 0.67 percent to close at 52,265.60. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex mirrored this downturn, falling by 0.91 percent to settle at a low of 80,604.65. This decline reflects broader market sentiments as volatility and profit-booking continue to dominate trading ahead of the Budget week.

Despite initial hopes for stability, both indices succumbed to the pressure, highlighting investor caution.

On the sectorial front, today witnessed a complete lack of gainers. The Metal sector emerged as the biggest loser, plummeting by 3.95%. Within this sector, Jindal Stainless Ltd. led the decline with a steep drop of 6.20%. NMDC Ltd. followed with a loss of 5.58%, and Tata Steel Ltd. rounded out the top decliners with a 4.97% decrease.

(FII) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) were net buyers today, with a total buy value of Rs. 15,892.61 crore and a sale value of Rs. 14,386.49 crore, resulting in a net purchase of Rs. 1,506.12 crore.

Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) experienced a net outflow. They purchased shares worth Rs. 15,051.42 crore while selling Rs. 15,512.98 crore, leading to a net selling position of Rs. 461.56 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

Today, the Nifty Bank Index saw no winners—every player on the field is facing a standstill.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bank of Baroda with a 2.62% decline, Federal Bank with a 2.49% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 2.26% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 2.21% decline, and Punjab National Bank with a 2.14% decline. These results suggest that all of the banking stocks performed not better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Rupee Stumbles Amidst Global Volatility: What’s Driving the Slide?

On Friday morning, the rupee was confined to a narrow range against the US dollar. Despite ongoing foreign fund inflows providing some support, heightened dollar demand from foreign investors and oil companies created pressure. The rupee saw fluctuations between 83.62 and 83.65 against the American currency at the interbank foreign exchange market.

A rebound in crude oil prices added to the rupee’s woes, with Brent crude futures slipping 0.41% to $84.76 per barrel. Weakness in Asian and European currencies further compounded the rupee’s challenges. On Thursday, the rupee depreciated by 5 paise, settling at an all-time low of 83.63 against the dollar.

The dollar index, reflecting the greenback’s strength against six major currencies, edged up by 0.07% to 104.24. Will the rupee regain stability, or will global and local pressures continue to push it down?

Stocks Highlights

Infosys Ltd. saw its share price climb 1.78% today, reaching Rs. 1,789.35 from its previous close of Rs. 1,758.05. Over the past three years, Infosys has delivered a return of 24.22%, lagging behind the Nifty 100’s 52.57% return and the Nifty IT’s 27.71% return. Notably, the company has maintained a low interest expense of less than 1% of its operating revenues while allocating 53.76% towards employee costs for the year ending March 31, 2024.

In contrast, Tata Steel Ltd. experienced a decline of 4.97%, with its stock trading at Rs. 158.10, down from Rs. 166.36. Historically, only 2.54% of trading sessions over the last 19 years have seen intraday declines exceeding 5%. Over three years, Tata Steel posted a 51.1% return, slightly trailing the Nifty 100’s 52.57% but significantly lagging behind the Nifty Metal’s impressive 88.76% return. The company allocated 3.28% of its operating revenues to interest expenses and 10.69% to employee costs for the same period.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.21, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix increased by 2.17 to settle at 14.83 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 459
Decliners – 2213
52Wk High – 86
52Wk Low – 23
High Band Hitters – 54
Low Band Hitters – 157
200d SMA – 21742
50d SMA – 23357
20d SMA – 24215

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Infosys (+1.78%), ITC (+0.62%), Asian Paint (+0.60%), and Britannia (+0.06%).

The top losers were Tata Steel (-4.97%), JSW Steel (-4.68%), BPCL (-3.98%), Hindalco (-3.91%), and ONGC (-3.44%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top losers sector were Metal (-3.95%), Oil & Gas (-2.78%), Auto (-2.40%), Realty (-2.36%), and Media (-2.32%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
METAL -3.95%
OIL & GAS -2.78%
AUTO -2.40%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (INDIACEM open at +343.50 and close at -347.05), (HAL open at -5010.00 and close at -4800.25), (SAIL open at -147.45 and close at -141.82), (BANDHANBNK open at -195.90 and close at -192.45), (BALRAMCHIN open at +450.40 and close at -441.55), (PEL open at -958.20 and close at -929.00), (HINDCOPPER open at -317.90 and close at -307.80), (VEDL open at -453.00 and close at -439.80), (GMRINFRA open at -95.93 and close at -91.94), (RBLBANK open at -242.60 and close at -240.35), and (GNFC open at -682.55 and close at -664.15) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

IDEA, LTF, NMDC, IDFCFIRSTB, PVRINOX, TATACHEM, IEX, BIOCON, RAMCOCEM, IRCTC, PNB, INDUSTOWER, and ABFRL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

RBLBANK, and GNFC stocks has the possibilities of exit from ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24350 to 24850 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.