Nifty Bounces Back with a 32-Point Gain After a Shaky Opening

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 22,055.70 up by 0.15%

On March 18, the NSE Nifty 50 exhibited resilience amidst market volatility, starting trading in the red but concluding the session in the green. With a modest gain of 0.15 percent, the benchmark indices displayed signs of recovery, surpassing the 22,050 mark and closing at 22,055.70, marking an increase of 32.35 points.

The day saw notable buying activity across various sectors, excluding IT and FMCG, propelling the indices upwards despite initial weakness. Sectors like Metal, Auto, and select heavyweights led a swift recovery, enabling the index to reclaim the 22,000 mark after bears dominated the morning trade.

However, concerns lingered over domestic issues such as mutual fund stress tests and premium valuations, contributing to market volatility. While midcap and small-cap segments aimed for upward movement, consolidation persisted.

Robust inflows from both Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) supported the outperformance of large caps. The market’s direction in the coming days will be influenced by policy actions from global central banks, with indications from the US Federal Reserve suggesting a potential rate cut in the latter half of CY24, introducing mixed sentiment in the short term.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.04%

On the trading day, the Bank Nifty commenced on a negative note, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.04 percent, and concluded the session in the red, closing at 46,575.90. Conversely, the BSE Sensex displayed a contrasting trend, witnessing a modest increase of 0.14 percent and ending the day in the green, reaching a high of 72,748.42.

The Bank Nifty’s slight dip reflected the cautious sentiment prevailing in the banking sector, possibly influenced by market uncertainties and sector-specific dynamics. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex’s positive performance underscored resilience in the broader market, buoyed by favorable factors driving investor confidence.

In the sectorial front, significant gains in the metal sector, with an impressive surge of 2.49%. Leading this charge is Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd., marking a substantial gain of 5.10%, closely followed by Tata Steel Ltd. with a commendable increase of 5.01%. Conversely, the IT sector witnessed a downturn, experiencing a notable decline of 1.64%. Among the top losers are Coforge Ltd., registering a significant loss of -6.81%, and Persistent Systems Ltd., facing a decline of -3.27%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) engaged in significant trading activities, with a buy value of Rs. 10,143.76 crore and a sale value of Rs. 12,194.85 crore, resulting in a net value of -Rs. 2,051.09 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) were active participants in the market, with a buy value of Rs. 10,135.01 crore and a sale value of Rs. 7,874.13 crore, leading to a net value of Rs. 2,260.88 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 2.17% increase, Axis Bank with a 1.75% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 0.55% increase, ICICI Bank with a 0.16% increase, and State Bank of India with a 0.08% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Federal Bank with a 1.99% decline, AU Bank with a 1.22% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 0.76% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 0.68% decline, and HDFC Bank with a 0.47% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Rupee Slips Slightly Against US Dollar Amidst Firm Crude Oil Prices

The Indian rupee experienced a minor decline, slipping by 4 paise to settle at Rs. 82.90 against the US dollar, primarily influenced by the firmness in crude oil prices. Despite gains in domestic stock markets and inflows from foreign funds, the rupee’s losses were limited.

Starting the day on a positive note, the local unit opened at 82.84 against the dollar at the interbank foreign exchange market, reaching a high of 82.83 in early trading. However, the rupee’s early gains were reversed as the US dollar and bond yields maintained higher levels, driven by anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Throughout the trading session, the rupee fluctuated, reaching a low of 82.91 before settling at 82.90, marking a marginal decline from the previous close of 82.86. Meanwhile, the US dollar index, measuring the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies, remained nearly unchanged at 103.40.

On the global front, Brent Crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, surged by nearly 1%, surpassing the $86-level. This uptick in crude oil prices further contributed to the slight pressure on the rupee.

Looking ahead, market expectations of a potential delay in rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve strengthened the US dollar, likely leading the rupee to trade with a minor negative bias. Additionally, some selling pressure from foreign investors may continue to influence the rupee’s performance in the near term. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely for informed decision-making in currency trading.

Stocks Highlights

Tata Steel Ltd. Tata Steel Ltd. witnessed a significant increase in its share price, rising by 5.01% from its previous close of Rs 141.70 to Rs 148.80. However, despite this positive movement, the company experienced a slight contraction in its topline sales, with a de-growth of 0.14%. This marks the first instance of revenue contraction in the past three years, signaling a potential concern for investors.

Technical indicators suggest a sell signal, with the appearance of a weekly stochastic crossover on the week ending Mar 15, 2024. Historical data indicates an average price decline of -6.29% within seven weeks following this signal over the last decade. Additionally, when comparing stock returns against Nifty 100, Tata Steel Ltd. demonstrated robust performance, yielding a 3-year return of 101.04%, surpassing Nifty 100’s return of 53.42%.

In terms of expenses, the company allocated 2.59% of its operating revenues towards interest expenses and 9.21% towards employee costs in the fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2023.

Infosys Ltd. In contrast, Infosys Ltd. observed a decline in its share price by -1.97%, settling at Rs 1,601.80 from the previous close of Rs 1,634.00. Despite this decrease, the company exhibited impressive revenue growth, outperforming its 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) with an annual revenue growth of 20.6%.

Similar to Tata Steel Ltd., Infosys Ltd. also displayed a sell signal, indicated by a weekly MACD crossover on the week ending Mar 15, 2024. Historical data reveals an average price decline of -6.06% within seven weeks following this signal over the past decade. However, in terms of stock returns compared to Nifty 100, Infosys Ltd. yielded a 3-year return of 22.2%, trailing behind Nifty 100’s return of 53.42%.

Regarding expenses, Infosys Ltd. allocated less than 1% of its operating revenues towards interest expenses and a significant portion, 53.39%, towards employee costs in the fiscal year ending Mar 31, 2023.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.00, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix increased by 1.49 percent to settle at 13.90 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1278
Decliners – 1280
52Wk High –  25
52Wk Low – 31
High Band Hitters – 170
Low Band Hitters – 125
200d SMA – 20278
50d SMA – 21917
20d SMA – 22214

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Tata Steel (+5.01%), M&M (+3.31%), JSW Steel (+2.81%), Tata Motors (+2.76%), and Apollo Hospital (+2.63%).

The top losers were UPL (-2.00%), Infosys (-1.97%), Tata Consumer (-1.95%), TCS (-1.78%), and Titan (-1.49%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were Metal (+2.49%), Auto (+1.26%), Media (+1.15%), Pharma (+0.51%), and Realty (+0.47%).

The top losers sector were IT (-1.64%), FMCG (-0.46%), Consumer Durables (-0.30%), and Financial Services (-0.09%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
METAL +2.49%
AUTO +1.26%
MEDIA +1.15%
IT -1.64%
FMCG -0.46%
CONSUMER DURABLES -0.30%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (BIOCON open at -252.80 and close at -250.65), (HINDCOPPER open at +271.20 and close at -269.25), (PEL open at -814.00 and close at -818.50), (RBLBANK open at +228.00 and close at +224.45), (BHEL open at -216.75 and close at +224.30), (SAIL open at +122.00 and close at +125.95), (ZEEL open at -142.00 and close at +142.95), (NATIONALUM open at -137.50 and close at +139.10), (TATACHEM open at -1126.00 and close at +1136.55), (ABFRL open at +207.50 and close at +208.15), and (MANAPPURAM open at +167.50 and close at +167.35) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

PVRINOX, BANDHANBNK, NMDC, INDIACEM, GNFC, INDUSTOWER, BALRAMCHIN, PNB, IDEA, and MGL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

SAIL, ZEEL, NATIONALUM, TATACHEM, ABFRL, and MANAPPURAM stocks has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 21900 to 22200 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.