What’s Brewing in the Markets? A Day of Surprises Awaits! Can Nifty50 Break the 26,000 Barrier?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 25,940.40 up by 0.01%

September 24, 2024. Today, the NSE Nifty 50 kicked off in the red, hovering at 0.01 percent up, and ended the day in the green. Nifty50 closed above 25,900, but it wasn’t a straightforward journey.

After soaring to fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, thanks to strong FII buying flows, the Indian equity benchmark indices experienced a pullback, closing on a muted note. The backdrop? A rate cut from the US Fed and stimulus measures from China, which have positively influenced global investor sentiment, giving a boost to domestic metal stocks.

Yet, despite the optimism, Indian equity indices couldn’t maintain their record highs, ending flat after a volatile session. On September 24, the Nifty briefly crossed 26,000 but couldn’t sustain that momentum. At the close, the Nifty was up just 1.35 points, finishing at 25,940.40.

What Lies Ahead? A Glimmer of Hope or a Stubborn Barrier?

After a shaky start, the market found its footing, oscillating between gains and losses. But in a dramatic twist, the final hour of trading saw renewed buying interest, helping the indices hit a new record high. The Nifty achieved an intraday milestone of 26,012 amidst second-half volatility but couldn’t close above it due to profit booking. Experts suggest that, given the overbought conditions, we might see some consolidation until we get a decisive close above 26,000.

The Nifty 50’s latest achievement? A record high of 26,012, but a closing figure of 25,940 raises questions about its sustainability. Will it hold? Volatility has decreased since the previous spike and now sits below 14, a favorable sign for bullish traders. The India VIX, our fear gauge, dipped 3.08 percent to 13.36.

Is This a Momentary Blip or a New Dawn for Indian Markets?

With strong FII inflows, our domestic benchmarks are poised to sustain new highs, buoyed by the US Fed’s aggressive rate cut. Meanwhile, China’s rate cuts and additional stimulus have sparked optimism among global investors, leading to gains in domestic metal stocks. However, FMCG and banking stocks are feeling the pressure, experiencing declines due to profit-booking at higher levels.

In the near term, expectations of a rate cut by the RBI in October could provide the momentum needed for further growth.

A Game of Chess: Will the Bulls Prevail?

Today, the Nifty traded within a narrow range, taking a breather after a three-day rally. Short-term sentiment remains positive, with the index maintaining its position above the crucial 21-day EMA, supported by a bullish crossover in the daily RSI. Yet, the 26,000 level looms as a formidable barrier—will it be breached for the rally to continue?

The markets danced between bullish and bearish trends. After a muted opening, the index corrected slightly and oscillated in a tight range, propelled by IT stocks pushing it over the psychological barrier of 26,000. However, towards the end of the session, most of these gains evaporated, leaving us to ponder: what’s next for the market?

Can We Expect a Market Surge or a Sudden Downturn?

As the US Federal Reserve shifts toward a rate cut cycle, major players like BlackRock are betting on positive momentum for India’s stock market and economy. Neeraj Seth, BlackRock’s CIO, anticipates a 150 bps easing over the next 12-18 months, suggesting that the latest move by Jerome Powell might have been a “catch-up” rather than a panic response, with the US economy aiming for a soft landing.

But here’s the kicker: while US equities remain favored, the runway ahead may not be vast as the Fed also works to contract its balance sheet.

Easing the Path for Foreign Investments: Will It Change the Game?

On another front, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is proposing to streamline the registration process for Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). On September 24, SEBI floated a consultation paper to simplify registration by reducing the information required at application time. The window for feedback is open until October 15.

As we await the unfolding drama of the markets, one question remains: Will the bulls conquer the 26,000 mark, or will the bears strike back? Stay tuned!

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.25%

India’s leading indices as both the Bank Nifty and BSE Sensex ended their trading sessions in the red. The Bank Nifty opened with a 0.25% drop and continued its downward trend, closing at 53,968.60. Similarly, the BSE Sensex saw a slight decline, down by 0.02%, finishing at a low of 84,914.04.

In the sectorial front, the Metal sector emerged as a surprise winner, recording an impressive gain of 2.97%. Leading the charge within this sector, National Aluminium Company Ltd. surged by a remarkable 6.64%, while Tata Steel Ltd. followed closely with a robust 4.32% increase.

On the flip side, the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector faced a more challenging day, slipping by 0.77%. Key players within the sector felt the impact, with Hindustan Unilever Ltd. suffering a significant 2.51% decline. Varun Beverages Ltd. also saw its stock take a hit, dropping by 1.09%.

FIIs recorded a significant buy value of Rs. 20,111.37 crore, but their sales outpaced purchases at Rs. 22,895.51 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs. -2,784.14 crore.

DIIs showcased resilience with a buy value of Rs. 15,939.51 crore and sales worth Rs. 12,071.20 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs. 3,868.31 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 1.68% increase, and HDFC Bank with a 0.39% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Punjab National Bank with a 3.25% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 2.22% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 1.24% decline, Kotak Bank with a 1.02% decline, and Axis Bank with a 0.51% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 24th September, 2024

Rupee Remains Steady Amidst Range-Bound Trading – What’s Influencing the Currency?

The Indian rupee experienced range-bound trade during the morning session on Tuesday, depreciating by 3 paise to settle at 83.57 against the US dollar. This movement comes amid a muted trend in domestic equities and the rising prices of crude oil. But what does this mean for the currency moving forward?

RBI’s Steady Hand
Despite the fluctuations, the rupee has managed to hold steady within a well-defined range, thanks in large part to active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit traded within a narrow band, opening at 83.54 before slipping to 83.57. This slight decline follows a 2 paise drop from the previous close of 83.54 on Monday.

A Temporary Setback?
Interestingly, the rupee had recently reached a two-month high but lost all its gains due to dollar buying by the RBI, bringing it back to the 83.55 level. On Tuesday, it opened flat, within a range of 83.40 to 83.65, as market participants closely monitor the RBI’s next move to control any further appreciation.

Market Influences: The Bigger Picture
The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.07% to 100.92 points. Meanwhile, Brent crude—the international benchmark—traded higher by 0.91%, reaching $74.57 per barrel in futures trade.

What’s Next for the Rupee?
As the market watches closely, the pivotal question remains: How will the RBI’s actions influence the rupee’s trajectory in the coming days? Stay tuned for more developments!.

Stocks Highlights

Tata Steel Ltd. has recently caught the attention of market watchers, with its share price climbing by 4.32% to Rs 160.65 from its previous close of Rs 153.99. This gain comes as part of a broader bullish trend, driven by the 200-day moving average crossover, signaling a potential buy opportunity for investors.

Historically, this technical signal has led to an average price increase of 6.65% within 30 days over the last five years. Intraday, it’s worth noting that only 2.46% of trading sessions in the past 19 years have seen gains surpassing 5%, making today’s movement particularly significant.

However, Tata Steel’s long-term performance tells a different story when compared to the broader market. Over the past three years, it has delivered a return of 17.93%, trailing behind the Nifty 100’s 50.53% return. Additionally, the company’s operational expenses have been impacted by its 3.28% interest expense and 10.69% employee cost as of March 31, 2024.

Meanwhile, SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. faced a downward trajectory, with its share price declining by 2.78% to Rs 1,866.70 from its previous close of Rs 1,920.15. Intraday gains exceeding 5% are rare for the stock, occurring in only 0.63% of trading sessions over the past seven years. Despite the dip, the company’s strong fundamentals are apparent, with its annual revenue growth of 62.23% outpacing its 3-year CAGR of 17.13%. Moreover, its three-year stock return of 61.18% has comfortably beaten the Nifty 100’s 50.53%.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.87, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 3.08 to settle at 13.36 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1291
Decliners – 1477
52Wk High – 166
52Wk Low – 40
High Band Hitters – 138
Low Band Hitters – 54
200d SMA – 22961
50d SMA – 24867
20d SMA – 25305

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Tata Steel (+4.32%), Hindalco (+4.12%), Power Grid (+2.77%), Tech Mahindra (+1.97%), and Adani Enterprises (+1.86%).

The top losers were SBI Life (-2.78%), Hindustan Unilever (-2.51%), Grasim (-1.61%), UltraTech Cement (-1.51%), and Shriram Finance (-1.39%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Metal (+2.97%), IT (+0.61%), Auto (+0.43%), Oil & Gas (+0.38%), and Pharma (+0.23%).

The top losers sector were FMCG (-0.77%), Realty (-0.30%), Financial Services (-0.28%), and Consumer Durables (-0.20%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
METAL +2.97%
IT +0.61%
AUTO +0.43%
FMCG -0.77%
REALTY -0.30%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.28%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (GRANULES close at +563.10), (ABFRL close at +348.10), (IDEA close at +10.67), (BIOCON close at +375.85), (OFSS close at +11630.00), (CHAMBLFERT close at +501.35), (PNB close at -107.83), (SAIL close at +133.88), (GNFC close at +664.65), (NATIONALUM close at +191.48), (LICHSGFIN close at +685.95), and (AARTIIND close at +588.60) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

CONCOR, NMDC, IDFCFIRSTB, DIXON, HINDCOPPER, PEL, BANDHANBNK, MANAPPURAM, CANBK, HAL, ESCORTS, and BSOFT stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

CHAMBLFERT, PNB, SAIL, GNFC, NATIONALUM, LICHSGFIN, and AARTIIND has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 25700 to 26100 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.