RBI Keeps Rates Unchanged, Highlights Ongoing Inflation Battle

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 18,634.55 down by 0.49%

Today, the NSE Nifty 50 commenced the trading session on a bullish note, reaching a significant high before witnessing a subsequent decline of 0.49 percent. The day concluded with the index closing in the negative territory, indicating a bearish sentiment. Notably, the Nifty settled below the crucial level of 18,650, further reinforcing the prevailing downward trend.

Despite encountering selling pressure at various intervals during the trading day, the Nifty index was effectively supported by Put writers, preventing it from breaching the crucial support level of 18,600. Should the Nifty maintain its position above this level, it is anticipated that the market trend will continue to be range-bound with a positive bias.

After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy, investor sentiment turned negative, despite the policy being as expected. The market had anticipated a more positive revision in the inflation outlook, especially with the recent decline in inflation data. However, the RBI’s decision to only reduce the inflation rate by 10 basis points indicates a cautious approach, possibly due to geopolitical uncertainties, the potential impact of El Nino, and the increase in Minimum Support Price.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.63%

The Bank Nifty commenced the trading session in a bearish manner, but later experienced a notable surge before ultimately closing with a decline of 0.63 percent at 43,995.25, remaining in the negative zone. Similarly, the BSE Sensex witnessed a downward movement of 0.47 percent, concluding the day at a low point of 62,848.64 while maintaining a bearish sentiment.

Following the announcement of the RBI policy, the Bank Nifty index experienced a persistent selling pressure, particularly in the vicinity of the significant support level of 44,500. A breach below this crucial level could potentially indicate a downside momentum and attract additional selling interest from both traders and investors. At present, the index is confined within a range, and a decisive breakthrough on either side would likely result in a directional move. It is imperative to monitor the index closely to identify any potential shifts in market sentiment and adjust investment strategies accordingly.

Today, in terms of sectorial performance, the Metal sector emerged as the top gainer, showing a positive growth of 0.16%. Within this sector, JSW STEEL LIMITED experienced a notable gain of 2.82%, JINDAL STAINLESS LIMITED recorded an increase of 2.20%, and APL APOLLO TUBES LIMITED saw a gain of 2.00%. However, the remaining sectors closed in the negative zone. Among them, the Realty sector stood out as the top loser, witnessing a decline of 1.59%. Within this sector, BRIGADE ENTERPRISES LIMITED experienced a significant loss of 3.23%, MACROTECH DEVELOPERS LIMITED recorded a decline of 2.64%, and SOBHA LIMITED saw a decrease of 2.28%.

In summary, the Metal sector displayed strength with notable gains, while the majority of other sectors concluded the day with losses. The Realty sector stood out as the top loser, experiencing significant declines in companies like BRIGADE ENTERPRISES LIMITED, MACROTECH DEVELOPERS LIMITED, and SOBHA LIMITED.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 0.12% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 0.11% increase, and HDFC Bank with a 0.04% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Kotak Bank with a 2.65% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 1.77% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 1.61% decline, Axis Bank with a 1.54% decline, and AU Bank with a 0.99% decline. These results suggest that some banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Buzzing

The share price of NTPC Ltd. witnessed a positive movement, increasing by 3.10% from its previous close of Rs 177.35, reaching a last traded price of Rs 182.85. Over a span of three years, the stock generated a return of 79.96%, outperforming the Nifty 100 index’s return of 79.46%. Notably, a Daily MACD crossover signal occurred recently, indicating a potential trend reversal. Historical data shows an average price gain of 3.62% within 10 days following this signal over the past 10 years. Furthermore, the company exhibited impressive annual revenue growth of 31.84%, surpassing its 3-year CAGR of 16.39%.

The share price of Grasim Industries Ltd. experienced a decline of -3.06% from its previous close of Rs 1,769.05, reaching a last traded price of Rs 1,714.85. Over a period of three years, the stock yielded a substantial return of 186.65%, outperforming the Nifty 100 index’s return of 79.46%. On Jun 06, 2023, a Daily MACD crossover signal was observed, indicating a potential shift in market trends. Historical data reveals an average price gain of 3.95% within 10 days following this signal over the past 10 years. Additionally, the company displayed robust annual revenue growth of 25.61%, surpassing its 3-year CAGR of 16.61%. Notably, in the last 18 years, only 1.05% of trading sessions recorded intraday gains higher than 5%.

Buzz

On Thursday, there was an upward movement in Indian government bond yields, with the benchmark yield crossing the 7% mark. This surge was in response to the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to maintain the status quo on policy rates and its stance. However, the central bank also indicated that headline inflation is expected to remain above the target for the current financial year.

Following the anticipated decision of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the key policy rate unchanged, the Indian rupee concluded the trading session with minimal changes. Market attention now turns towards the upcoming rate outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve, as investors closely monitor its potential impact on currency dynamics.

Concluding the session, the Indian rupee settled at 82.57 against the U.S. dollar, exhibiting a marginal change from the previous session’s closing of 82.5475. Throughout the trading day, the rupee maintained a relatively narrow range, fluctuating between 82.54 and 82.6125.

FII/FPI made a purchase valued at 8,013.28 and a sale valued at 7,800.88, resulting in a net value of 212.40 (Rs. Cr.). Similarly, on the same date, the DII made a purchase valued at 5,461.85 and a sale valued at 5,866.86, resulting in a net value of -405.01 (Rs. Cr.).

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.51, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.61 percent to settle at 11.26 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 783
Decliners – 1527
52Wk High –  107
52Wk Low – 11
High Band Hitters – 74
Low Band Hitters – 50
200d SMA – 17868
50d SMA – 18015
20d SMA – 18431

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were NTPC (+3.10%), JSW Steel (+2.82%), ONGC (+1.59%), Power Grid (+1.40%), and LT (+1.08%).

The top losers were Grasim (-3.06%), Kotak Bank (-2.65%), Sun Pharmaceutical (-2.33%), Tata Consumer (-2.07%), and Tech Mahindra (-2.04%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sectors were Metal (+0.16%).

The top losers sectors were Realty (-1.59%), Media (-1.52%), IT (-1.12%), Pharma (-1.03%), and FMCG (-0.90%).

The Nifty Midcap 50 was down by 0.98 percent, while the Nifty Small Cap 50 was down by 1.35 percent on the day.

The Nifty Midcap 50 index currently closed at 9,609.60, while the Nifty Small Cap 50 index currently closed at 4,746.50.

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
METAL +0.16%
REALTY -1.59%
MEDIA -1.52%
IT -1.12%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list  (MANAPPURAM open at +113.70 and close at -112.55), (IBULHSGFIN open at -112.90 and close at -111.55), and (INDIACEM open at +223.00 and close at -215.35) are not currently on the stock exchange.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has banned MANAPPURAM, IBULHSGFIN, and INDIACEM from trading in the futures and options (F&O) segment of the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO ) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.
BHEL, DELTACORP, ZEEL, HINDCOPPER, and RBLBANK Face Possible Entry in Ban List.

There are indications that INDIACEM may have the potential to be removed from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 18570 to 18750 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read previous -Daily Insights- here
Markets Gain Momentum Amid Sector-Wide Buying
Market Flat with Volatility as RBI Commences Meeting
Global Equity Optimism Boosts Local Market Sentiment

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.