November Expiry Day Brings Volatility, But Equity Benchmarks Continue to Rise

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 20,133.15 up by 0.18%

The NSE Nifty 50 showcased a positive trend, opening with a 0.18% rise and closing above the 20,100 threshold, marking a continuous upward momentum over three sessions until November 30. The day faced volatility, particularly driven by the monthly expiry dynamics. Despite subdued global cues, the Indian benchmarks initially experienced slight gains, retracing later towards the 20,000 level.

The latter half witnessed moderate volatility, yet the indices managed to secure marginal gains, characterized by narrow fluctuations settling around the upper band. Sectors like realty and pharma exhibited strength, contributing to a mixed trend, while midcap and smallcap counters notably outperformed, favoring market breadth towards advancements.

S&P Global Rating’s upward revision of India’s GDP growth forecast for FY24 to 6.4% from 6.0% buoyed market optimism. The potential breach of the psychological 20,000 mark by the Nifty50, sustained gains, and promising global market performances, along with successful IPO listings, bolstered mid and small-cap stocks.

However, the anticipation surrounding state exit poll outcomes and the impending final results on Sunday introduced cautiousness, injecting an element of uncertainty amid the recent positive market sentiment. These imminent announcements could potentially influence market sentiments and trading strategies in the short term, prompting a watchful approach among investors.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.19%

The Bank Nifty kicked off the trading day positively, starting in the green but concluded with a slight decline, marking a 0.19% decrease and closing at 44,481.75. In contrast, the BSE Sensex portrayed a different narrative, initially increasing by 0.13% and ultimately closing positively at a high of 66,988.44.

The Bank Nifty index encountered heightened volatility on the monthly expiry day, leading to fluctuating performance throughout the day’s trades. Amidst this, the pharmaceutical sector surged impressively by 1.56%, notably led by Alkem Laboratories Ltd. with a substantial gain of 4.44%, closely followed by Granules India Ltd. registering a surge of 3.58%.

Conversely, the IT sector experienced a slight downturn, with a marginal decrease of 0.08%. Notable declines within this sector include Ltimindtree Ltd. facing a loss of -0.96% and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. observing a decline of -0.74%.

Foreign Institutional Investors/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FII/FPI) exhibited a positive investment trend, recording a Buy Value of Rs. 66,830.53 crore against a Sale Value of Rs. 58,682.68 crore, leading to a Net Value of Rs. 8,147.85 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) experienced a negative trend, showcasing a Net Value of -Rs. 780.32 crore, with Buy and Sale Values of Rs. 13,944.96 crore and Rs. 14,725.28 crore, respectively.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Bandhan Bank with a 2.32% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 1.12% increase, Axis Bank with a 1.00% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 0.25% increase, and Kotak Bank with a 0.19% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Federal Bank with a 1.73% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 1.58% decline, AU Bank with a 1.18% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 1.05% decline, and State Bank of India with a 0.61% decline. These results suggest that some banking stocks performed better for the day.

Buzz

Indian Rupee Records Lifetime Low Against US Dollar Amidst Asian Peers’ Rally

On Thursday, the Indian rupee touched its all-time closing low, emerging as the weakest performer among key Asian currencies in November. The downturn occurred despite the rally witnessed by other Asian currencies amidst a decline in US yields and the strength of the dollar.

Notably, the Reserve Bank of India’s likely intervention curbed further depreciation of the rupee on Thursday. The local unit concluded at 83.3950 against the US dollar, marking a 0.08% decrease from its previous closure at 83.3250, posting a minor monthly loss of 0.1%.

The central bank engaged in mild dollar selling, while a prominent foreign bank showed notable buying activity, possibly acting on behalf of custodial clients.

While the dollar index reflected an increase to 103.14, it is expected to log a monthly decline of over 3%, representing its most substantial monthly plunge in a year.

November witnessed a surge in most Asian currencies due to lowered US yields and a weaker dollar, but the Indian rupee remained stagnant due to robust local demand for the greenback, overshadowing positive global cues.

The decline in US yields, nearly 60 basis points in November, has fueled speculations among investors about potential Fed rate cuts from May next year. Consequently, the rupee remains within a narrow depreciative range, a trend anticipated to persist for the time being.

Buzzing

UltraTech Cement Ltd. experienced a notable surge, witnessing a 3.11% increase from its previous closing price of Rs 8,732.75, reaching Rs 9,004.00 in the latest trading session. The bullish signals reflected a positive trend with 10-day, 14-day, and 20-day moving crossovers on Nov 28, 2023. Historical data over the past 5 years indicates an average price gain of 2.82%, 2.83%, and 2.74%, respectively, within 7 days of these signals. Intriguingly, in the last 19 years, only a mere 1.62% of trading sessions reported intraday gains surpassing 5%.

Contrarily, Adani Enterprises Ltd. observed a -1.30% decrease, trading at Rs 2,365.50 from its prior closure at Rs 2,396.60. Although there were positive 20-day and 50-day moving crossovers on Nov 28, 2023, indicating potential bullish trends with average gains of 5.71% and 9.16%, respectively, within 7 and 30 days in the past 5 years, a recent bearish signal appeared with the 200-day moving crossover, historically signaling an average decline of -10.39% within 30 days. Interestingly, only 3.91% of trading sessions in the last 19 years saw intraday declines exceeding 5%.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.05, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 0.13 percent to settle at 12.69 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1260
Decliners – 1201
52Wk High –  165
52Wk Low – 15
High Band Hitters – 87
Low Band Hitters – 44
200d SMA – 18796
50d SMA – 19591
20d SMA – 19603

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were UltraTech Cement (+3.11%), HDFC Life (+2.42%), Apollo Hospital (+2.34%), Bharti Airtel (+1.98%), and Sun Pharmaceutical (+1.94%).

The top losers were Adani Enterprises (-1.30%), IndusInd Bank (-1.05%), Adani Ports (-1.00%), LTIM (-0.96%), and Reliance (-0.90%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were Pharma (+1.56%), Realty (+1.44%), Consumer Durables (+1.41%), Oil & Gas (+0.73%), and FMCG (+0.55%).

The top losers sector were IT (-0.08%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
PHARMA +1.56%
REALTY +1.44%
CONSUMER DURABLES +1.41%
IT -0.08%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (MANAPPURAM open at +162.30 and close at +164.40), and (HINDCOPPER open at +173.80 and close at -173.05) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

SAIL, ZEEL, INDIACEM, NMDC, and MCX stocks has the possibilities of enterance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 20000 to 20200 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.