Nifty Nightmare Turns Dream Rally! Upside Surge or Bullish Illusion?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,323.85 up by 0.09%

Today, the NSE Nifty 50 began in red but managed a 0.09% rise, closing in green at 24,323.85. Despite higher volatility, the index held steady for the second consecutive session on July 5. Opening 88 points lower at 24,213.35, Nifty slipped below 24,200 intraday, hitting a low of 24,168.85. However, buying at lower levels erased most losses, highlighting investor confidence.

The market opened with a gap down, extending selling pressure through the session. Despite this, a strong intraday recovery saw Nifty bouncing back sharply from its lows. The formation of a bullish candle on the daily chart suggests a possible bullish counterattack pattern, indicating renewed optimism among investors.

Banks and IT stocks were key drags on the market, dampening investor sentiment after recent highs. Analysts note that profit booking is typical in a bull market, particularly after significant gains. HDFC Bank’s report of reduced loans also impacted market mood, contributing to the mixed bias seen throughout the day.

Global cues, including expectations of a US rate cut and a robust upcoming Budget, kept overall sentiment positive. Investors remain cautious ahead of the US non-farm payroll data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Domestically, the focus is on the Union Budget, monsoon progress, inflation expectations, and Q1FY25 earnings.

Despite early losses, Indian shares recovered to end flat, reflecting market resilience. The heavy put writing at the 24,200 level indicates short-term support for Nifty. As investors navigate mixed global and domestic signals, the bullish trend in the Indian stock market continues to show strength.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.83%

Today, the Bank Nifty commenced trading in negative territory, marking an initial decline of 0.83 percent from its opening level. By the end of the trading day, it closed at 52,660.35, reflecting persistent downward pressure. Similarly, the BSE Sensex faced a marginal decline of 0.07 percent during today’s trading, concluding at a lower level of 79,996.60.

In the sectorial performance, Oil & Gas emerged as the top gainer with a notable increase of 1.89%. Within this sector, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. saw a significant rise of 4.06%, while Aegis Logistics Ltd. recorded a gain of 2.94%.

Conversely, Financial Services experienced a decline of 1.00% today, marking it as the top loser among sectors. HDFC Bank Ltd. led the losses with a notable decrease of 4.50%, followed by Bajaj Finserv Ltd. with a marginal decline of 0.36%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) recorded a net buying activity with a total buy value of Rs. 13,354.30 crore and a sale value of Rs. 12,112.97 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs. 1,241.33 crore.

On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) reported a net selling activity with a total buy value of Rs. 12,695.07 crore and a sale value of Rs. 14,346.43 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs. 1,651.36 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 2.83% increase, State Bank of India with a 2.42% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 1.37% increase, Punjab National Bank with a 1.05% increase, and Kotak Bank with a 0.59% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included HDFC Bank with a 4.50% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 1.81% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 0.61% decline, AU Bank with a 0.18% decline, and ICICI Bank with a 0.09% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Stocks Highlights

Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) saw a significant increase in its share price, rising by 4.06% from its previous close of Rs 277.05 to a last traded price of Rs 288.30. This movement is notable considering historical intraday data, where only 1.32% of trading sessions in the last 19 years saw gains exceeding 5%.

Financial Metrics Highlight

• Return on Equity (ROE): ONGC delivered an ROE of 14.6% for the year ending March 31, 2024, surpassing its 5-year average of 12.06%. This indicates improved profitability relative to its historical performance.
• Expense Management: The company allocated 1.59% of its operating revenues towards interest expenses and 1.14% towards employee costs during the same period, showcasing efficient expense management strategies.

Stock Performance Analysis: HDFC Bank Ltd.

HDFC Bank Ltd. faced a decline in its share price, dropping by -4.50% from its previous close of Rs 1,727.15 to a last traded price of Rs 1,649.40. Historically, only 0.72% of trading sessions in the past 19 years witnessed intraday declines exceeding 5%.

Operational Metrics Highlight

• Loan Book Growth: HDFC Bank reported a significant year-on-year increase of 54.39% in its advances, surpassing its 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.71%. This indicates robust growth in its lending activities.
• Revenue Growth: The bank’s annual revenue growth stood at 99.35%, outperforming its 3-year CAGR of 37.37%, reflecting strong revenue generation capabilities.
• Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past 3 years, HDFC Bank delivered a return of 16.68%, contrasting with Nifty 100’s return of 52.57%, suggesting relative underperformance in stock returns.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.39, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.24 to settle at 12.70 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1543
Decliners – 1114
52Wk High – 245
52Wk Low – 13
High Band Hitters – 148
Low Band Hitters – 45
200d SMA – 21538
50d SMA – 22998
20d SMA – 23725

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were ONGC (+4.06%), Reliance (+2.63%), SBIN (+2.42%), Britannia (+2.09%), and Cipla (+1.98%).

The top losers were HDFC Bank (-4.50%), Titan (-1.90%), LTIM (-0.85%), Tata Steel (-0.73%), and IndusInd Bank (-0.61%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Oil & Gas (+1.89%), Pharma (+1.29%), FMCG (+1.08%), Metal (+0.34%), and Auto (+0.13%).

The top losers sector were Financial Services (-1.00%), Consumer Durables (-0.23%), Realty (-0.03%), and IT (-0.01%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
OIL & GAS +1.89%
PHARMA +1.29%
FMCG +1.08%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -1.00%
CONSUMER DURABLES -0.23%
REALTY -0.03%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (INDIACEM open at -286.00 and close at -284.60), (PEL open at -936.90 and close at -935.20), (BANDHANBNK open at -206.70 and close at -204.33), (HINDCOPPER open at -327.00 and close at +330.80), and (ABFRL open at +333.20 and close at -327.65) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

GNFC, IEX, INDUSTOWER, BALRAMCHIN, CHAMBLFERT, IDEA, GMRINFRA, IDFCFIRSTB, and BSOFT stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24100 to 24500 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read Previous -Daily Insights- here
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Market Soars to Record Highs, Then Plummets—What’s Next?

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.