Nifty Hits Record High Amidst Global Surge! Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 25,388.90 up by 1.89%

Today, NSE Nifty 50 kicked off with a bang, surging 1.89% and closing above 25,350. This impressive climb marks a new record high, driven by a wave of buying across various sectors.

What’s fueling this surge? The US inflation rate fell to a three-year low of 2.5% in August, boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Swap markets now estimate an 85% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in next week’s Fed meeting, a sharp rise from last week’s 60%. This news sparked a buying spree, propelling the Nifty to an all-time high of 25,433.

As the trading day wound down, the Nifty closed at 25,388.90, up 470.45 points. Traders are buzzing with excitement as the index held strong gains, thanks to a broad-based recovery and significant short-covering on Nifty’s expiry day.

The rally wasn’t just a fluke—a sudden rebound from a low of 24,941 earlier in the day pushed the Nifty to record levels. The final hour saw a surge in buying, driven by global market movements and anticipation of a Fed rate cut.

Thursday’s gains

Thursday’s gains mirrored global trends, with both the Sensex and Nifty hitting new highs. The excitement was palpable, with metals, auto, and energy sectors leading the charge. Even the midcap index joined the rally, reaching a new high.

Technical indicators are also bullish, with the Nifty breaking out of its recent consolidation and sustaining above the 21-day EMA. The RSI shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive sentiment.

“Bulls took charge today amid strong global cues”—that’s the buzz. The global rate cut optimism (from both the ECB and the US Fed) has given markets a boost. The next phase of the rally will depend on domestic inflation data and corporate earnings forecasts.

Nifty Auto also made waves today, propelled by the Union Cabinet’s approval of the PM Electric Drive Revolution scheme, aimed at accelerating electric vehicle adoption in India.

Is this the start of a new bull run? Stay tuned.

Bank Nifty: Up by 1.49%

The Bank Nifty opened the trading session with a promising 1.49% increase, finishing the day at 51,772.40. This robust rise reflects a strong positive sentiment within the banking sector, as investors reacted favorably to the day’s market conditions. Similarly, the BSE Sensex showcased its strength by climbing 1.77% to end at an impressive 82,962.71.

In the sectorial front, the metal sector just took off— with a remarkable 2.91% gain, this sector is catching everyone’s attention. National Aluminium Company Ltd. soared by an impressive 4.59%, while NMDC Ltd. followed closely with a 4.45% rise.

But here’s the twist: No losers at all in this sector.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) demonstrated a strong buying interest with a buy value of Rs. 23,301.02 crore. However, their sales were substantial as well, amounting to Rs. 15,606.02 crore. The net investment by FIIs stands at Rs. 7,695.00 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) experienced a net outflow. Their total buy value was Rs. 13,690.60 crore, but their sales were higher at Rs. 15,491.14 crore, resulting in a net negative value of Rs. 1,800.54 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Kotak Bank with a 2.33% increase, State Bank of India with a 2.33% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 1.91% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 1.85% increase, and IndusInd Bank with a 1.60% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included AU Bank with a 0.05% decline. These results suggest that almost all of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 12th September, 2024

Stocks Highlights

Hindalco Industries Ltd. has recently shown an upward trend, with its share price rising by 4.15% from its previous close of Rs 647.70 to a new level of Rs 674.60. This positive movement is particularly noteworthy, considering that, over the last 19 years, only 3.0% of trading sessions experienced intraday declines greater than 5%.

Despite this upward trend, the company has faced some challenges, including a 3.12% contraction in sales. This marks the first revenue contraction in three years, highlighting a potential concern for investors. When compared to the Nifty 100, Hindalco’s three-year return of 39.73% falls short of the index’s 47.22% return, suggesting that while the stock is making gains, it still lags behind the broader market.

On the other hand, Nestle India Ltd. experienced a minor dip of -0.11%, with its stock closing at Rs 2,524.00, down from Rs 2,526.85. Over the past 14 years, the company has only seen intraday declines higher than 5% in 0.19% of trading sessions, reflecting its stability in turbulent market conditions.

Remarkably, Nestle’s annual revenue growth of 27.51% has outpaced its three-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.09%. Furthermore, a recent 50-day moving average crossover on September 10, 2024, suggests bullish momentum. Historically, this signal has resulted in an average price gain of 3.19% within 30 days over the past five years. Despite these positive indicators, Nestle’s three-year return of 23.52% still lags behind the Nifty 100’s 47.22%, indicating room for improvement.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.67, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 3.26 to settle at 13.18 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1680
Decliners – 1006
52Wk High – 139
52Wk Low – 28
High Band Hitters – 114
Low Band Hitters – 64
200d SMA – 22740
50d SMA – 24671
20d SMA – 24986

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Hindalco (+4.15%), Bharti Airtel (+3.56%), NTPC (+3.36%), Shriram Finance (+3.36%), and Grasim (+2.94%).

The top losers were Nestle India (-0.11%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Metal (+2.91%), Auto (+2.14%), Oil & Gas (+1.61%), IT (+1.60%), and Financial Services (+1.54%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
METAL +2.91%
AUTO +2.14%
OIL & GAS +1.61%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (AARTIIND close at -568.05), (BALRAMCHIN close at +572.75), (CHAMBLFERT close at +507.70), (BANDHANBNK close at +196.98), (RBLBANK close at +213.62), (HINDCOPPER close at +314.30), and (ABFRL close at +326.40) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

IDEA, NMDC, PNB, SAIL, GNFC, GMRINFRA, CANBK, BSOFT, LICHSGFIN, BANKBARODA, IDFCFIRSTB, LTF, and NATIONALUM stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24950 to 25600 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.