Nifty Faces Volatility as Bears and Bulls Battle for Control—Will It Find a Bottom or Fall Further?

NiftyTrader • November 11, 2024

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Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,141.30	-6.90	-0.03%
Nifty MidCap 50	15,529.20	–127.70	-0.82%
Nifty SmallCap 50	8,810.85	-107.35	-1.20%
Nifty Bank	51,876.75	+315.55	+0.61%
Nifty Financial	23,959.95	+125.40	+0.53%
BSE SENSEX	79,496.15	+9.83	+0.01%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,141.30 down by 0.03%

NSE Nifty 50 started the week on a weak note and ended down by 0.03%, closing at 24,141.30 on Monday, November 11. Despite some early recovery, the benchmark index couldn’t sustain gains and closed below the critical 24,150 level. Is this just another temporary dip, or is the market signaling more turbulence ahead?

A Highly Volatile Session with Little Change

Opening and Fluctuations: The Nifty opened at 24,087, quickly slipping to an intraday low of 24,005, before briefly recovering to touch 24,337 in the late morning. However, profit booking at higher levels wiped out all intraday gains, and the index finished down by 6.90 points or 0.03%.
Mixed Global Cues: The market was affected by a mix of global cues, which triggered early losses, followed by gains in the afternoon that couldn’t be sustained.

Technicals: A Bullish Candle with Upper Shadow, But What Does It Mean?

A small bullish candle with a long upper shadow formed on the daily chart, signaling that the bulls couldn’t maintain momentum beyond the higher levels. This pattern indicates choppy market conditions with a weak bias. The underlying trend of Nifty remains unstable, trading within the broader range of 23,800–24,600. A bounce from 23,800 is expected in the short term, but resistance at 24,300 and 24,500 remains a challenge.

Sectoral Breakdown: IT and Banking Lead, While Media and Metals Lag

IT and Banking sectors helped support the index, as they outperformed in a turbulent session.
Media and Metal sectors were the biggest losers, contributing to the index’s overall weakness.

FIIs and Market Sentiment: A Cautious Investor Outlook

The market is heavily influenced by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) activity. Their actions, in combination with weak earnings expectations and the Trump policy, are creating a cloud of uncertainty over the market.
Nifty earnings downgrades are further pressuring sentiment, while the strong US dollar and expectations of a revamp in US IT spending are supporting the IT sector.

Looking Ahead: Can Nifty Find Support at 23,800?

With sharp downside momentum absent in recent sessions, there’s hope that the bulls may make a comeback from the 23,800 level, a critical support zone.
However, if the index falls below 24,000, it could trigger further weakness, and immediate resistance is seen at 24,300, followed by 24,500.

Volatility Continues: India VIX and Market Outlook

The India VIX (fear index) dropped 1.38% to 14.27, reflecting reduced volatility in the short term. A further decline in VIX could offer some relief to the bulls, but with the market’s current weak bias and the unpredictable nature of global factors, investors should tread cautiously.

Will Nifty manage to stay above 23,800, or is a deeper dip on the horizon? The current market action leaves many questions unanswered, but the coming days will be crucial in determining the next major move. Keep an eye on FII actions, sectoral performances, and global market cues for clues on which way the market is headed.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.61%

Despite a weak opening, the Bank Nifty managed to recover and closed up by 0.61%, finishing the session at 51,876.75. This rebound helped the index end in the green, showcasing resilience in the face of broader market challenges.

Similarly, the BSE Sensex showed a modest recovery, rising 0.01% to close at 79,496.15, holding onto its gains by the end of the session.

In the sectorial front, the IT sector took the lead with a promising 1.28% rise, leaving investors wondering if this is the beginning of a bigger tech rally. HCL Technologies Ltd. emerged as a standout, gaining an impressive 1.77%, closely followed by Infosys Ltd. with a solid 1.59% gain.

But, as the tech sector soared, Media took a hit, marking the day’s largest decline at -1.30%. Within the media space, Nazara Technologies Ltd. plunged by -2.64%, while Saregama India Ltd. dropped by -2.62%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) were net sellers on November 11, with a buy value of ₹9,430.85 crores and a sale value of ₹11,737.73 crores, resulting in a net outflow of ₹2,306.88 crores.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) showed a more positive outlook, with a buy value of ₹9,848.87 crores and a sale value of ₹7,822.24 crores, resulting in a net inflow of ₹2,026.63 crores.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included IDFC First Bank with a 1.33% increase, ICICI Bank with a 0.78% increase, Axis Bank with a 0.69% increase, Federal Bank with a 0.57% increase, and Bank of Baroda with a 0.55% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included AU Bank with a 0.88% decline, and Kotak Bank with a 0.31% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 11th November, 2024

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,220	– ₹ 55
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,876	– ₹ 60
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,907	– ₹ 45

Silver / g	₹ 93	– ₹ 1
Silver / kg	₹ 93,000	– ₹ 1,000

Rupee Hits a Record Low of 84.39 Against USD: What’s Fueling the Decline, and Can It Recover? 🌍💸

The Indian rupee slipped to a record low of 84.39 against the USD on Monday, but thanks to strategic intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), it managed to avoid a sharper fall. Why is the rupee under such pressure, and could this decline continue?

Key Factors Weighing on the Rupee

Weakness in Regional Currencies: With Asian currencies down between 0.1% to 0.6%, the rupee is not alone in this slide. Affected by broader regional trends, the rupee faces additional hurdles as global investors move away from emerging markets.
Sustained Outflows from Indian Stocks: Foreign investors have pulled out nearly $2.5 billion from Indian stocks in November so far, adding to the $11 billion in outflows during October. As foreign funds exit, the pressure on the rupee intensifies, making recovery even more challenging.
High Dollar Demand from Oil Companies and Banks: The demand for USD by oil companies and foreign banks has also contributed to the rupee’s decline. This demand, likely on behalf of custodial clients, keeps the dollar stronger against the rupee.

How is the RBI Controlling the Slide?

The RBI’s intervention played a critical role in preventing a freefall. By stepping in, the RBI kept the rupee’s losses to a modest 0.02% decline for the day, closing at 84.3925. However, will continued intervention be enough to stabilize the rupee in the long term?

Global Impact: The Role of the U.S. Dollar and Trump’s Economic Policies

The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching 105.3, which is close to a four-month high following Donald Trump’s election victory. Analysts suggest that Trump’s policies could increase U.S. inflation and bond yields, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policies.

The Yuan Factor: What’s Happening in China?

Another factor influencing the rupee is the Chinese yuan, which slipped 0.2% to 7.21. China’s recent stimulus package, which disappointed investors, further dampens regional confidence and could add pressure on the rupee.

Will the Rupee Find a Way Back? As the rupee navigates these global and regional pressures, the big question remains: Can it regain strength, or are further lows on the horizon? Investors and analysts are closely watching the RBI’s next moves.

Stocks Highlights

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. has just seen its share price skyrocket by an impressive 4.35%, jumping from Rs 316.25 to a new trading price of Rs 330.00. And here’s the kicker—a generous dividend of Rs 4.5 per share has been announced, with a record date set for Nov 14, 2024.

This stock has delivered an astonishing 122.93% return over the past 3 years, far outpacing the Nifty 100’s return of 37.06%. But what’s behind this growth? Is Power Grid poised for even more upside, or is it reaching its peak?

Asian Paints Ltd. has taken a dive, with its stock dropping by a staggering -8.00%, closing at Rs 2,547.80. This marks a new 52-week low for the company—but why is the stock crashing?

The company’s quarterly performance is raising red flags, with a 10.13% QoQ revenue decline—the worst performance in the last three years. Asian Paints has underperformed compared to the Nifty 100, with its 3-year return of -11.74% vastly trailing behind the Nifty 100’s 37.06% return. What’s happening? Can Asian Paints bounce back, or are more losses ahead?

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.44 and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.38 to settle at 14.27 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 859
Decliners – 1960
52Wk High – 63
52Wk Low – 41
High Band Hitters – 106
Low Band Hitters – 117
200d SMA – 23517
50d SMA – 24991
20d SMA – 24437

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Power Grid (+4.35%), Trent (+2.60%), HCL Tech (+1.77%), Infosys (+1.59%), and Tech Mahindra (+1.41%).

The top losers were Asian Paint (-8.00%), Britannia (-5.95%), Apollo Hospitals (-3.59%), Cipla (-2.69%), and ONGC (-2.02%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were IT (+1.28%), and Financial Services (+0.53%).

The top losers were Media (-1.30%), Metal (-1.00%), FMCG (-0.88%), Pharma (-0.88%), and Oil & Gas (-0.83%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
IT +1.28%
FINANCIAL SERVICES +0.53%
MEDIA -1.30%
METAL -1.00%
FMCG -0.88%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (MANAPPURAM close at +156.11), (GRANULES close at -572.30), and (ABFRL close at +298.20).

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

AARTIIND, HINDCOPPER, SAIL, CHAMBLFERT, and BANDHANBNK stock has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.