Nifty 50 Surges Past 25,150! Markets Rally Amid Mysterious Buying Spree—What Could This Mean for Your Investments?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 25,127.95 up by 0.66%

In a refreshing turn of events, the NSE Nifty 50 kicked off the trading day in the green, climbing 0.66% and closing firmly above the 25,100 mark. After a few rangebound sessions that had investors on edge, the bulls made a bold statement on October 14, propelling the Nifty to soar past 25,150 intraday amidst a wave of buying across most sectors—except for media and metals.

At the end of the trading session, the Nifty closed at 25,127.95, up by an impressive 163.70 points. Positive global cues lit the path for Indian markets, which opened higher and continued to gain momentum throughout the day, largely driven by the Realty, Information Technology, and Banking stocks.

Bulls Take the Lead Amid Mixed Signals

The Indian stock markets finished the first trading session of the week on a high note, bolstered by strong performances from the IT and banking sectors. “A long bull candle formed on the Nifty’s daily chart signals an attempt at an upside breakout after a period of rangebound movement,” analysts noted. Having fluctuated within a broader range of 25,200-24,700 in the past few sessions, the index has bounced back, positioning itself near the upper threshold of 25,200 levels.

The Sensex and Nifty both ended the day in positive territory, lifted primarily by robust gains in the banking and IT sectors. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the upcoming domestic inflation report, which could provide insights into potential rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India.

This rebound comes after the benchmarks suffered a 5% drop over the past two weeks, weighed down by concerns over Middle East tensions, softening corporate earnings, and persistent foreign outflows.

Resilience Amidst Global Uncertainties

Despite a backdrop of mixed global signals, including China’s disinflation and disappointing economic data hinting at a potential slowdown, the Indian market is demonstrating remarkable resilience. The subdued Q2 earnings expectations appear to be already priced in, and with oil prices on the decline, investor sentiment is gradually improving.

Mid and Small Caps also advanced, but they underperformed compared to the frontline index. Realty stocks emerged as the top performers of the day, followed closely by IT and BankNifty.

A bullish Marubozu Open candlestick pattern formed on the daily chart, signaling a breach of the congestion zone and 50DMA hurdle.

As traders keep an eye on market dynamics, the Nifty is on track for a potential resurgence towards 25,500, following a brief three-day consolidation. With a positive crossover in the hourly momentum indicator, the outlook remains optimistic—could this be the start of a new upward trend?

As the market navigates these uncertain waters, the focus shifts to how the interplay of local economic indicators and global factors will shape the coming sessions. Will the bulls maintain their grip, or will external pressures pull them back? Only time will tell!

Bank Nifty: Up by 1.26%

The bulls dominated the market once again as Bank Nifty opened in the green, rising by 1.26%, and closed at a solid 51,816.90. It wasn’t just the banking sector enjoying the upward momentum—BSE Sensex also joined the rally, climbing 0.73% to close at a new high of 81,973.05.

In the sectorial front, Realty surged by 1.61%, leading the market with some standout performances. Raymond Ltd. skyrocketed by 4.78%, while Oberoi Realty Ltd. followed closely, rising by 3.95%. Is the real estate boom back, or is there more to this story?

But while Realty enjoys the spotlight, Media takes a hard fall, emerging as the biggest loser of the day, down by 1.00%. Shockingly, Saregama India Ltd. plunged by 6.38%, with TV18 Broadcast Ltd. slipping by 2.99%.

FIIs recorded a buy value of Rs. 9,364.16 crore but faced a stark sale value of Rs. 13,095.75 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs. 3,731.59 crore.

DIIs exhibited a more positive outlook, with a buy value of Rs. 11,597.52 crore against a sale value of Rs. 9,319.43 crore. This resulted in a net inflow of Rs. 2,278.09 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 5.31% increase, HDFC Bank with a 2.30% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 1.73% increase, Kotak Bank with a 1.61% increase, and AU Bank with a 1.47% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Axis Bank with a 0.32% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 14th October, 2024

Rupee’s Fall: Should You Be Worried? Experts Say It’s Under Control

As the rupee crossed the 84 mark, reaching a concerning 84.11 against the dollar, the air is thick with speculation. But is this decline truly alarming, or merely a natural progression amid global uncertainties?

Economists are downplaying the situation, insisting that this depreciation is part of a broader, gradual trend rather than an immediate crisis. They point to the foreign outflows and rising oil prices, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, as key factors driving this shift.

“There is nothing alarming about rupee depreciation, particularly when it is overvalued,” one economist noted. As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) steps in to manage foreign investment impacts, the rupee’s dip seems almost inevitable.

To maintain balance, the RBI actively intervenes in the foreign exchange market, buying excess foreign currency to prevent the rupee from appreciating too much. This process, known as “sterilisation” or “neutralisation,” helps control domestic money supply and keeps inflationary pressures in check.

But what are the implications of a weaker rupee? A stronger rupee can push Indian exports out of competitive reach in global markets, affecting the balance of payments and hurting sectors reliant on exports.

As the rupee flirts with record lows, the big question looms: Is this decline a temporary hurdle in a fluctuating global economy, or a signal of deeper issues at play? The path ahead remains uncertain, but one thing is clear—the dynamics of currency value are intricately linked to global events and economic policy decisions.

Stocks Highlights

In a surprising shift, Tech Mahindra Ltd.’s share price climbed by 2.88%, surging from Rs 1,647.05 to Rs 1,694.50. But wait, not all is as it seems. For the first time in three years, the company’s sales contracted by 2.47%, signaling a slowdown. What could this mean for its future?

While the stock managed to deliver a 3-year return of 17.63%, it lags significantly behind the Nifty 100’s robust 43.3%. Is this a red flag, or merely a temporary bump in the road?

Another eyebrow-raising fact: Tech Mahindra has spent a staggering 56.02% of its operating revenues on employee costs for the year ending March 31, 2024, while keeping interest expenses below 1%. Could this imbalance affect future growth?

Meanwhile, in the energy sector, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) saw its share price tumble by 2.05%, slipping from Rs 292.55 to Rs 286.55. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Despite the drop, ONGC delivered a remarkable ROE of 14.6%, outpacing its 5-year average of 12.06%. However, like Tech Mahindra, it too faced its first sales contraction in three years, with revenues declining by 5.74%.

But here’s the twist: While Nifty 100 gave a solid 43.3% return over the last three years, ONGC crushed those numbers with an impressive 77.3% return. What’s driving this contradiction? And what’s next for this energy giant?

With both companies experiencing unexpected shifts, the real question remains: Are these warning signs of deeper issues, or just temporary fluctuations?

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.98, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.70 to settle at 13.00 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1375
Decliners – 1404
52Wk High – 94
52Wk Low – 20
High Band Hitters – 136
Low Band Hitters – 74
200d SMA – 23239
50d SMA – 25054
20d SMA – 25471

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Wipro (+4.24%), Tech Mahindra (+2.88%), HDFC Life (+2.40%), HDFC Bank (+2.30%), and LT (+2.02%).

The top losers were ONGC (-2.05%), Maruti (-1.77%), Tata Steel (-1.48%), Bajaj Finance (-1.26%), and Adani Enterprises (-1.22%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Realty (+1.61%), IT (+1.27%), Financial Services (+1.04%), Consumer Durables (+0.65%), and FMCG (+0.47%).

The top losers sector were Media (-1.00%), Metal (-0.28%), and Oil & Gas (-0.14%), .

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
REALTY +1.61%
IT +1.27%
FINANCIAL SERVICES +1.04%
MEDIA -1.00%
METAL -0.28%
OIL & GAS -0.14%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (CHAMBLFERT close at +501.85), (GNFC close at -647.70), (PNB close at +105.01), (RBLBANK close at +206.70), (HINDCOPPER close at +325.25), (GRANULES close at +608.80), (SAIL close at +134.33), (MANAPPURAM close at +184.05), and (IDFCFIRSTB close at +72.94) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

NATIONALUM, IEX, LTF, AARTIIND, EXIDEIND, CANBK, GMRINFRA, NMDC, LICHSGFIN, BALRAMCHIN, PEL, ABFRL, and ADANIENT stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24900 to 25300 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read Previous -Daily Insights- here
Markets stall once again as Nifty struggles—what’s holding it back? Has the Indian market slipped into the shadows?
Nifty on the Edge: Will It Break Above 25,000? Is the Market Preparing for a Major Shift Amid Positive Global Cues?

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.