Nifty 50 Surges on Maharashtra Election Victory—Will 24,500 Be the Next Hurdle?

NiftyTrader • November 25, 2024

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Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,221.90	+314.65	+1.32%
Nifty MidCap 50	15,604.05	+250.35	+1.63%
Nifty SmallCap 50	8,722.30	+132.60	+1.54%
Nifty Bank	52,207.50	+1,072.10	+2.10%
Nifty Financial	24,058.70	+434.95	+1.84%
BSE SENSEX	80,109.85	+992.74	+1.25%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,221.90 up by 1.32%

Could This Surprising Victory Be the Secret to the Bullish Market Surge?

November 25, 2024, brought a thrilling start to the trading week as the NSE Nifty 50 surged an impressive 1.32%—a gain of 314.65 points—closing at 24,221.90. But here’s the real twist: it wasn’t just another ordinary trading day. Something monumental happened: the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance scored a massive victory in Maharashtra’s elections, sending the markets into an upward spiral.

The Market’s Reaction to BJP’s Triumph: Was This Just a Coincidence?

Investors couldn’t contain their excitement, and it showed. With Nifty breaking above 24,200, momentum surged across the board. But what does this all mean for the future? Could this political win be the spark that ignites a larger rally, or are we looking at just a brief surge?

What’s Behind This Rush?

The broader market caught fire after the BJP’s landslide victory in Maharashtra, not just in domestic stocks but globally, too. Sensex leaped 993 points (1.25%), and Nifty surged 315 points (1.32%), pushing up the market capitalization by over ₹6 lakh crore, totaling a staggering ₹439.86 lakh crore.

But here’s the kicker: while the victory itself is fueling optimism, the market’s behavior is much more layered. The DOJI candle that formed on Nifty’s chart signals indecision—a warning that not all is settled. So, is the bull run just a temporary boost, or will it last longer? Will the 24,500 mark be the new threshold?

What Happens After 24,500? The Key Resistance Level

As Nifty hits new highs, it encounters a critical barrier: 24,500. This level could either propel the market further or trigger a pullback. If the market clears this resistance decisively, brace for a strong rally. But for now, Nifty continues its sideways movement, holding steady above 24,100 despite some profit booking in the latter half of the day.

The Global and Domestic Forces At Play

The global market has its share of influences too. With US futures trending up and Asian stocks rallying, the stage is set for further gains. Meanwhile, domestic cues like the strong BJP mandate and positive economic outlook for H2FY25 keep investor sentiment high.

What’s Next? The Seasonality Edge

Let’s talk about F&O data. The Nifty options market shows a bullish crossover with rising put-writing activity, signaling that market participants are ready for more gains. Historically, the end-of-year season has favored bulls, with Nifty rising 80% of the time, averaging 4% gains—could this be one of those years?

But… Will Gold’s Dip Keep You on Edge?

Just when things seem clear, we hit a curveball—gold prices. With a dip in prices hovering around ₹78,000, some may wonder: is this a sign of weakening investor confidence, or is gold merely consolidating? With global geo-political tensions on the rise, gold might just be setting up for its next surge. Is this the calm before the storm?

What’s Your Next Move?

With so many factors influencing the market, the real question is—what’s next? Will the BJP’s triumph prove to be the long-term catalyst for sustained market gains? Will Nifty break through the crucial 24,500 resistance and surge higher? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure—the markets are in motion, and they’re not stopping anytime soon. Stay tuned.

Bank Nifty: Up by 2.10%

The Bank Nifty surged by an impressive 2.10%, closing at 52,207.50. This rise reflects the growing investor optimism, particularly in the banking sector, which has been a key driver of the market’s bullish sentiment. Similarly, the BSE Sensex also had a robust day, climbing 1.25% to close at a record 80,109.85.

On the sectorial front, the Oil & Gas industry saw a massive surge of 2.83% today—an unexpected jump that has left many analysts wondering what’s behind this boost. Aegis Logistics Ltd. led the charge, climbing a remarkable 6.47%, while Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. also enjoyed a strong uptick, gaining 5.48%.

But here’s the kicker: No losers in sight today. Not a single drop in the sector’s performance.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FPI) were net buyers today, with a buy value of Rs 85,251.94 crore and a sale value of Rs 75,304.39 crore, resulting in a net buy value of Rs 9,947.55 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) were net sellers, with a buy value of Rs 17,624.75 crore and a sale value of Rs 24,532.72 crore, resulting in a net sell value of Rs -6,907.97 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Bank of Baroda with a 5.11% increase, Punjab National Bank with a 4.40% increase, Canara Bank with a 4.01% increase, State Bank of India with a 3.60% increase, and ICICI Bank with a 1.95% increase.

These results suggest that all of the banking stocks performed best for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 25th November, 2024

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,200	– ₹ 100
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,855	– ₹ 109
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,891	– ₹ 82

Silver / g	₹ 91.50	– ₹ 0.50
Silver / kg	₹ 91,500	– ₹ 500

Rupee Gains 10 Paise, Closing at 84.31—Is This a Sign of Strength or Just a Short-Term Rebound? 🌍💸

What’s Behind the Rupee’s Surprising Surge Against the Dollar?

On November 25, 2024, the Indian rupee saw a welcome rebound, appreciating by 10 paise, closing at 84.31 against the US dollar. This positive movement comes after several days of volatility, but what’s truly driving this shift? Is this the start of a longer-term trend, or just a temporary blip in the ongoing currency battle?

A Boost from Global and Domestic Sentiment

The rupee’s uptick was largely supported by strong domestic equity performance, with Nifty and Sensex both seeing significant gains. But what really caught investor attention was the geopolitical news: improved investor sentiment followed a statement from the Israeli ambassador to Washington, suggesting that a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah could be imminent. This news offered a breath of relief to global markets, including the rupee, as geopolitical tensions that had weighed on the market seemed to ease.

Key Technical Indicators: Can the Rupee Hold Its Ground?

The rupee opened at 84.38 and touched a high of 84.25 during the day. It finally closed at 84.31, marking a rise of 10 paise over its previous close of 84.41. This small but significant movement suggests a shift in momentum, though the question remains—can it break through critical levels or will it face resistance?

The dollar index—which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies—was down by 0.47%, which also contributed to the rupee’s upward movement. As global risk appetite improves, the US dollar weakened, which gave the rupee a cushion to gain ground.

Geopolitical Factors & US Developments Impacting the Currency

In addition to geopolitical news, the market was further buoyed by news from the US—bonds rallied following the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary by former President Donald Trump. Known as a deficit hawk, Bessent’s appointment raised hopes for a reduction in borrowing, which could lower yields and in turn support the Indian rupee.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices softened, falling 0.69% to $74.65 per barrel, which also played a role in easing inflationary pressures and supporting the rupee’s position.

So, What’s Next for the Rupee?

With the rupee showing some resilience, the real test will be whether it can break out of the 84.20–84.50 range in the coming sessions. If it does, we could see a more sustained recovery, supported by global sentiment and domestic stability.

But, of course, much depends on global developments, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and any further surprises in US economic policy. Will the rupee continue its ascent, or is this just a temporary bounce before another dip?

Stay tuned—the journey of the rupee is far from predictable, but these short-term gains certainly add an element of hope.

Stocks Highlights

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) is on a bullish run, with its share price rising 5.48% from its previous close of Rs 245.60 to a new level of Rs 259.05. But what’s driving this sudden leap?

Despite a 5-year average ROE of 12.06%, ONGC has outperformed expectations, delivering an impressive 14.6% ROE for the year ending March 31, 2024. Yet, there’s a twist in the tale—the company faced its first revenue contraction in three years, with sales dropping by 5.74%. This topline contraction raises questions: Is this a temporary blip, or a sign of more challenges ahead?

When it comes to stock returns, ONGC has been a standout, delivering a 58.35% return over the past three years, outpacing the Nifty 100, which only gained 38.33% in the same period.

Meanwhile, JSW Steel Ltd. has faced a setback, with its stock price dropping -2.32% from its previous close of Rs 977.35 to Rs 954.70. What’s causing this dip?

While the stock has delivered a solid 43.54% return over the past 3 years, outperforming the Nifty 100‘s 38.33%, it has underperformed against the Nifty Metal index, which saw a 57.96% return in the same period. Could this performance indicate something more than just a market fluctuation?

The company’s spending habits are also under scrutiny: 4.63% of operating revenues went toward interest expenses, and 2.62% was dedicated to employee costs in the year ending March 31, 2024.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 2.19 and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 4.93 to settle at 15.30 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1930
Decliners – 883
52Wk High – 77
52Wk Low – 48
High Band Hitters – 163
Low Band Hitters – 55
200d SMA – 23602
50d SMA – 24767
20d SMA – 24022

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were ONGC (+5.48%), BEL (+4.33%), LT (+4.26%), BPCL (+4.01%), and Shriram Finance (+3.78%).

The top losers were JSW Steel (-2.32%), Tech Mahindra (-0.71%), Infosys (-0.59%), Maruti (-0.55%), and Bajaj Auto (-0.39%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were Oil & Gas (+2.83%), Realty (+2.21%), Financial Services (+1.84%), Media (+1.84%), and Consumer Durables (+1.01%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
OIL & GAS +2.83%
REALTY +2.21%
FINANCIAL SERVICES +1.84%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (AARTIIND close at +437.90), (GNFC close at +584.40), (IGL close at +324.15), (NATIONALUM close at -251.37), (ADANIENT close at +2257.50), (GRANULES close at +575.05), and (HINDCOPPER close at +278.80) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

SAIL, MANAPPURAM, BANDHANBNK, CANBK, BANKBARODA, CHAMBLFERT, and ABCAPITAL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

ADANIENT, GRANULES and HINDCOPPER stocks has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.