Markets stall once again as Nifty struggles—what’s holding it back? Has the Indian market slipped into the shadows?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,964.25 down by 0.14%

The market opened weak today—NSE Nifty 50 started in red, down by 0.14%, and closed below the 25,000 mark. But is this just another quiet day, or are we on the brink of something bigger?

On October 11, 2024, Indian stock markets stayed in consolidation mode, a pattern we’ve seen for days now. Nifty formed a small negative candle on the daily chart, hinting at a continuation of the narrow range it’s been stuck in. Meanwhile, the weekly scale showed a high-wave candle pattern, signaling indecision. Is Nifty preparing for a breakout or will the consolidation linger?

With Nifty hovering near crucial support around 24,500, there’s potential for an upside bounce. Could this be the moment for the bulls to make their move? Will we see Nifty climb back up, or slip further down?

The day was weighed down by mixed global cues. The market opened flat, unable to break through 25,000 as selling in realty, bank, and auto stocks kept it under pressure. The index closed at 24,964.25, down 34.20 points—yet again, Nifty couldn’t escape its choppy, rangebound behavior.

Selective buying

But it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Selective buying in heavyweight stocks helped limit the damage, especially in pharma and metals, sectors that saw modest gains. Broader indices also performed better, each gaining nearly half a percent. Could this selective buying be a sign of things to come?

The lack of fresh triggers weighed heavily. With US inflation data, an uptick in the US 10-year yield, and geopolitical challenges creating uncertainty, FIIs shifted focus to affordable markets, tightening liquidity at home. Is this just a short-term lull, or are deeper shifts at play?

Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves took a hit, marking the first decline in eight weeks. After reaching a record high, reserves fell by $3.71 billion. Could this be the start of a longer trend, or will reserves bounce back in the coming weeks?

As the market regulator, SEBI, introduced measures to strengthen the index derivatives framework, one question looms large: Is Nifty ready for a breakout or will the consolidation continue?

While markets may appear lackluster, sometimes quiet waters run deep. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, saw record inflows in the third quarter, fueled by an equity rally and renewed optimism for a soft landing for the world’s largest economy. Could this optimism trickle into Indian markets?

The stage is set for a decisive move—will Nifty rise or fall?

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.70%

The market started with a gloomy tone as Bank Nifty opened in the red, slipping by 0.70%. By the end of the day, it closed further down at 51,172.30, signaling a tough session for banking stocks. Similarly, the BSE Sensex followed suit, dropping by 0.28% and closing at a low of 81,381.36.

In the sectorial front, the Pharma sector climbed by 1.19%, but Granules India Ltd. stole the show with an impressive gain of 4.37%, followed closely by IPCA Laboratories Ltd., which jumped 4.34%.

But while Pharma thrives, the Realty sector took a hit, emerging as the top loser, down by 0.69%. Leading the decline was The Phoenix Mills Ltd., sinking by -2.40%, with DLF Ltd. not far behind, losing -1.74%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) reported a buy value of Rs. 6,219.76 crore but a much higher sale value of Rs. 10,382.42 crore, resulting in a net sell value of Rs. -4,162.66 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) showed a contrasting trend, with a buy value of Rs. 11,906.51 crore and a sale value of Rs. 8,175.64 crore, leading to a net buy value of Rs. 3,730.87 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 1.03% increase, Federal Bank with a 1.02% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.45% increase, and State Bank of India with a 0.24% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included ICICI Bank with a 1.62% decline, Bank of Baroda with a 1.45% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 1.15% decline, AU Bank with a 0.99% decline, Axis Bank with a 0.93% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 11th October, 2024

Rupee Gains Ground: A Double-Edged Sword?

The Indian rupee experienced a slight uptick in early trade on Friday, rising 2 paise to 83.96 against the US dollar, primarily driven by a weakening greenback. However, the rise in crude oil prices and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows limited further gains for the domestic currency, according to forex traders.

After opening at 83.97, which was 1 paisa higher than the previous day’s close, the rupee managed to climb to 83.96. It’s noteworthy that the local unit had settled at 83.98 on Thursday. The sentiment was not all positive, though, as a weak start in the domestic equity markets held back the rupee from appreciating further.

Forex analysts predict that the rupee will likely trade within the range of 83.75 to 84.10, indicating that the sideways trend may persist. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, dipped 0.11% to 102.87 points, providing a minor boost to the rupee.

In other developments, Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.48% to $77.71 per barrel in futures trade, posing additional challenges for the rupee as rising oil prices can exacerbate inflation and widen the current account deficit. Will the rupee sustain this upward momentum, or will external factors pull it back?

Stocks Highlights

Hindalco Industries Ltd. is making waves! The share price has surged by 2.27%, jumping from its previous close of Rs. 730.15 to a last traded price of Rs. 746.70. But hold on; the intraday fact check reveals a startling statistic: in the last 19 years, only 2.49% of trading sessions saw intraday gains exceeding 5%. What does this mean for investors?

Now, let’s dive into the numbers. The company experienced a topline contraction with sales dropping by 3.12%. This marks a first in three years, igniting questions about the sustainability of growth. However, there’s a glimmer of hope. A buy signal emerged on October 9, 2024, with the 14-day moving average crossover indicating that bulls are inching ahead. Historically, stocks following this signal saw an average price gain of 3.96% within a week over the past five years.

To put things in perspective, Hindalco has delivered a remarkable 49.77% return over three years, outshining the Nifty 100, which only managed 43.74%. Is this the moment to seize the opportunity, or should caution prevail?

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. faced a setback as its share price dipped by 1.93%, falling from Rs. 4,227.40 to Rs. 4,146.00. What’s the story behind this decline?

Interestingly, TCS boasts a zero debt burden, maintaining this impressive feat for the past five years. Yet, while the company has minimized its interest expenses to less than 1% of operating revenues, a whopping 58.17% of costs went towards employee salaries in the year ending March 31, 2024.

The board meeting held on October 10, 2024, has raised eyebrows. With the agenda focused on quarterly results and a second interim dividend, many are left wondering: what will the outcomes reveal? This is one to keep on your watchlist—will TCS rebound or continue to face challenges?

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.07, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 1.24 to settle at 13.33 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1420
Decliners – 1322
52Wk High – 83
52Wk Low – 24
High Band Hitters – 125
Low Band Hitters – 50
200d SMA – 23220
50d SMA – 25051
20d SMA – 25482

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Trent (+2.52%), Hindalco (+2.27%), HCL Technologies (+1.73%), Tech Mahindra (+1.56%), and ONGC (+1.35%).

The top losers were TCS (-1.93%), M&M (-1.80%), ICICI Bank (-1.62%), Cipla (-1.52%), and Adani Enterprises (-1.39%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Pharma (+1.19%), Metal (+0.94%), Media (+0.60%), IT (+0.59%), and Oil & Gas (+0.49%).

The top losers sector were Realty (-0.69%), Financial Services (-0.64%), and Auto (-0.35%), .

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
PHARMA +1.19%
METAL +0.94%
MEDIA +0.60%
REALTY -0.69%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.64%
AUTO -0.35%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (CHAMBLFERT close at +1151.20), (GNFC close at +648.50), (GRANULES close at +578.40), (PNB close at -129.97), (SAIL close at -103.69), (RBLBANK close at +200.70), (HINDCOPPER close at -312.15), (MANAPPURAM close at -188.68), (IDFCFIRSTB close at +73.14), (BANDHANBNK close at -187.70), (TATACHEM close at -584.65), and (BSOFT close at -584.65) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

IEX, NATIONALUM, EXIDEIND, AARTIIND, CANBK, NMDC, GMRINFRA, LTF, BALRAMCHIN, LICHSGFIN, ADANIENT, and PEL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

BANDHANBNK, TATACHEM, and BSOFT stock has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24800 to 25100 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

Read Previous -Daily Insights- here
Nifty on the Edge: Will It Break Above 25,000? Is the Market Preparing for a Major Shift Amid Positive Global Cues?
Nifty 50: Gains Erode as RBI Holds Steady—Can the market regain momentum, or are more surprises in store?

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.