Market’s Journey from Weak Global Cues to Final Hour Sell-Off

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 22,434.65 down by 0.08%

Despite a sluggish start with NSE Nifty 50 opening in the red, the Indian market showcased resilience amidst global volatility on April 3. The Nifty closed marginally lower by 18.65 points, maintaining a flat note at 22,434.65. Initially influenced by weak global cues, the market rebounded, nearing record highs supported by sectors like IT, media, financial services, and consumer durables. However, last-hour selling offset the intraday gains, leading to a fluctuating session.

While global uncertainties impacted the market’s early performance, the overall sentiment remained robust as the index sustained itself above key moving averages. Notably, the Nifty witnessed a recovery during the day, closing off the intraday lows albeit in the red by approximately 19 points. Chart analysis indicates consolidation over the past three trading sessions, with divergent signals from daily and hourly momentum setups suggesting possible near-term consolidation.

Despite global concerns and apprehensions regarding a potential delay in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts following strong US economic data, the Indian market displayed a subtle positivity. This optimism stems from positive manufacturing PMI data and hopeful expectations surrounding upcoming Q4 results. The buoyancy in the broader market signals strength in the short term.

Investor focus remains on the US Fed chair’s speech, with anticipation for cues regarding future monetary policy. A statement in line with the last policy is predicted to bring relief to the global market, potentially influencing Indian market sentiments positively amidst the ongoing volatility.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.17%

The Bank Nifty commenced trading on a negative note, opening in the red, but later rallied to close in the green, recording a modest gain of 0.17% and settling at 47,624.25. Conversely, the BSE Sensex saw a slight decline of 0.04%, opening in the red and closing at a low of 73,876.82. Despite the mixed performance between the two indices, the Bank Nifty’s positive closure reflects relative strength in the banking sector compared to broader market trends.

In the sectorial front, the Information Technology (IT) sector has seen a significant uptick, with a notable gain of 0.73%. Leading the charge are companies like L&T Technology Services Ltd., showing a robust increase of 3.25%, and Coforge Ltd. with a commendable rise of 1.94%.

On the flip side, the real estate sector has faced some setbacks, registering a decline of 2.58%. Macrotech Developers Ltd. experienced a notable loss of -4.65%, while Godrej Properties Ltd. saw a dip of -3.91%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) recorded a buy value of Rs. 13,812.77 crore and a sale value of Rs. 16,026.33 crore, resulting in a net value of -Rs. 2,213.56 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) registered a buy value of Rs. 13,037.25 crore and a sale value of Rs. 11,934.84 crore, leading to a net value of Rs. 1,102.41 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 7.34% increase, AU Bank with a 2.68% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 1.55% increase, Axis Bank with a 1.32% increase, and State Bank of India with a 0.60% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Kotak Bank with a 1.39% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 1.17% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 1.14% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 1.07% decline, and ICICI Bank with a 0.36% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Rupee Weakens Against Dollar Amidst Crude Oil Surge

The Indian rupee faced depreciation, closing at 83.45 (pro) against the US dollar on Wednesday, shedding 3 paise amidst escalating crude oil prices globally and continuous foreign fund outflows. This downward trend was further compounded by a subdued performance in domestic equities, denting investor confidence.

Trading at the interbank foreign exchange market saw the rupee open at 83.36, touching an intraday low of 83.45 and a high of 83.36 against the dollar before settling at 83.45 (pro), marking a 3 paise loss compared to the previous close. Tuesday had witnessed a similar narrow consolidation, ending 3 paise lower at 83.42 against the American currency.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, reflecting the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, showed a marginal decrease of 0.01% to 104.80. The concerns over rising crude oil prices, with Brent climbing to Rs. 89 per barrel due to fresh supply worries and Middle East conflicts, further exacerbated the rupee’s challenges.

Analysts anticipate the rupee to sustain a negative bias, influenced by the anticipated recovery of the US Dollar and global market risk aversion. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the persistent rise in crude oil prices are expected to exert additional pressure on the rupee’s performance, potentially restricting its movement within a range of 83.20 to 83.40. Investors are advised to monitor these factors closely for potential impacts on currency markets.

Stocks Highlights

Shriram Finance Ltd. exhibited an upward movement in its share price, increasing by 3.65% from its previous close of Rs 2,465.95 to reach Rs 2,556.00 in the latest trading session. Notably, historical data reveals that only 3.42% of trading sessions over the past 19 years saw intraday gains surpassing 5%.

The company allocated 42.43% of its operating revenues towards interest expenses and 8.65% towards employee costs for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. A positive sign for investors emerged with a Daily MACD crossover observed on April 1, 2024, historically resulting in an average price gain of 5.05% within 10 days.

Over the past three years, Shriram Finance Ltd. delivered a robust return of 67.44%, outperforming the Nifty 100 index, which recorded a return of 54.33%.

Conversely, Nestle India Ltd. experienced a downturn, with its share price declining by -2.60% from its previous close of Rs 2,623.30 to Rs 2,555.00. Data indicates that only 0.6% of trading sessions over the last 14 years witnessed intraday gains exceeding 5%.

Quarterly performance revealed a concerning QoQ revenue decline of 8.67%, marking the lowest in the past three years. Despite this, a bullish trend is anticipated following a 5-day moving crossover observed recently. Historically, this signal has led to an average price gain of 1.9% within 7 days.

Nestle India Ltd. recorded a three-year return of 53.56%, slightly trailing behind the Nifty 100 index’s return of 54.33%. Investors may need to carefully assess these trends to make informed decisions regarding their investment portfolios.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 2.62, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 2.40 percent to settle at 11.37 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1877
Decliners – 716
52Wk High –  125
52Wk Low – 5
High Band Hitters – 311
Low Band Hitters – 24
200d SMA – 20456
50d SMA – 22008
20d SMA – 22210

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Shriram Finance (+3.65%), NTPC (+2.28%), Divi’s Laboratories (+1.74%), TCS (+1.71%), and Tech Mahindra (+1.59%).

The top losers were Nestle India (-2.60%), Bajaj Auto (-2.01%), Dr. Reddy (-1.71%), Kotak Bank (-1.39%), and Britannia (-1.31%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were IT (+0.73%), Media (+0.57%), Financial Services (+0.22%), Consumer Durables (+0.07%), and Oil & Gas (+0.04%).

The top losers sector were Realty (-2.58%), FMCG (-0.43%), Auto (-0.27%), and Pharma (-0.17%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
IT +0.73%
MEDIA +0.57%
FINANCIAL SERVICES +0.22%
REALTY -2.58%
FMCG -0.43%
AUTO -0.27%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (HINDCOPPER open at -307.45 and close at +311.45) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

ZEEL, SAIL, PEL, INDIACEM, and ABFRL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 22300 to 22600 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.