Market Swings End on a Positive Note with Auto and Energy Sector Boost

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 21,839.10 up by 0.10%

On March 20, the NSE Nifty 50 commenced on a positive note, marking a 0.10% increase and eventually closing in the green. The index surged above 21,800, supported by moderate gains amid a volatile trading session. Investor caution prevailed ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome, causing fluctuations throughout the day.

Despite the market’s choppy performance, the auto and energy sectors witnessed buying interest, aiding the benchmark indices to conclude on a higher note. The Nifty closed at 21,839.10, showcasing resilience amidst prevailing uncertainties. However, apprehensions lingered as the index remained below crucial levels, hinting at underlying negative sentiment.

Looking ahead, market analysts anticipate further downward movement below the recent swing low positioned around 21,700. However, signs of a positive divergence and a positive crossover on the hourly timeframe suggest a potential easing of selling pressure.

The market’s rebound was buoyed by favorable global sentiment and robust direct tax collections. Additionally, sustained inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) contributed to market stability. Despite speculations of a rate cut in June diminishing, with the US Fed likely postponing any action due to a resilient economy, the market outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

In the short term, domestic mid and small-cap stocks may lag behind large caps, influenced by premium valuations. Amidst ongoing uncertainties, investors are advised to remain vigilant, diversify portfolios, and stay informed about evolving market dynamics to make informed decisions.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.16%

Bank Nifty commenced the session on a positive note, indicating a slight increase, only to witness a decline of 0.16 percent by the day’s end, concluding at 46,310.90 in the red zone. Conversely, the BSE Sensex displayed a contrasting performance, initially rising by 0.12 percent and eventually closing in the green at a high of 72,101.69. This disparity underscores the market’s mixed sentiment and highlights the need for investors to closely monitor sectoral movements and market dynamics for informed decision-making.

In the sectorial front, the Oil & Gas sector, with a notable increase of 1.29%. Leading the charge, Oil India Ltd. surged impressively by 4.03%, closely followed by Aegis Logistics Ltd. with a gain of 2.71%. Conversely, the Metal sector witnessed a slight downturn, experiencing a decrease of 0.79%. Apl Apollo Tubes Ltd. faced a notable decline of -2.89%, while Tata Steel Ltd. also saw a dip of -2.25%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) displayed a net selling behavior, with buy value amounting to Rs. 10,600.38 crore and sale value reaching Rs. 13,199.57 crore. Consequently, the net value stood at a deficit of Rs. 2,599.19 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) exhibited a net buying trend, recording a buy value of Rs. 11,532.02 crore and a sale value of Rs. 8,864.50 crore, resulting in a net value surplus of Rs. 2,667.52 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included State Bank of India with a 1.77% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.96% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 0.68% increase, Punjab National Bank with a 0.34% increase, and ICICI Bank with a 0.28% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Bandhan Bank with a 1.27% decline, HDFC Bank with a 1.20% decline, Axis Bank with a 1.19% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 0.46% decline, and Federal Bank with a 0.03% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Rupee Declines Against US Dollar Amidst Firm Crude Oil Prices

On Tuesday, the Indian rupee experienced a decline of 5 paise against the US dollar, settling at 82.95, influenced by firm crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows. Starting at 82.94 to a dollar, the rupee witnessed a marginal decrease of 4 paise from its previous close. Throughout early trading, it fluctuated within a tight range of 82.93 to 82.95 against the dollar.

Factors such as a stronger US dollar and firm bond yields, in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, further exerted pressure on the rupee. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, saw a 0.20% rise to 103.64. Concurrently, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, maintained levels above $86 per barrel, nearing a four-month high.

Despite these challenges, the rupee found some support from a recovery in domestic equity markets and foreign fund inflows. However, it ultimately settled at 83.16 against the dollar, marking a loss of 13 paise from its previous close.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate the rupee to continue trading with a negative bias, driven by the strength of the US dollar and expectations of a rebound in crude oil prices. Nonetheless, positive trends in global equities may provide some support to the domestic currency amidst ongoing market volatility. Investors should remain vigilant and monitor key economic indicators to navigate currency fluctuations effectively.

Stocks Highlights

Eicher Motors Ltd.: Impressive Performance and Growth

Eicher Motors Ltd. demonstrated remarkable strength in its share price, witnessing a 4.25% increase from its previous close, reaching Rs 3,875.00. Notably, only 2.82% of trading sessions in the last 19 years experienced intraday gains higher than 5%, indicating the significance of this surge.

The company’s annual revenue growth of 40.03% surpassed its three-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.58%, showcasing robust financial performance and potential for sustained growth. Despite a slightly lower stock return of 39.65% compared to Nifty 100’s return of 50.03% over three years, Eicher Motors Ltd. remains an attractive investment option.

Moreover, Eicher Motors Ltd. effectively managed its expenses, allocating less than 1% of operating revenues towards interest expenses and 6.94% towards employee costs in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. This prudent financial management reflects positively on the company’s operational efficiency and profitability.

Tata Steel Ltd.: Challenges Amidst Market Volatility

In contrast, Tata Steel Ltd. experienced a decline of -2.25% in its share price, settling at Rs 145.40 from its previous close of Rs 148.75. The company faced a topline contraction, with sales declining by 0.14%, marking its first revenue contraction in the last three years.

Despite recent challenges, a bullish signal emerged with a 50-day moving crossover on March 18, 2024, indicating potential for price gains. Historically, this signal has resulted in an average price gain of 5.96% within 30 days, offering a ray of hope amidst market uncertainties.

Over three years, Tata Steel Ltd. recorded a stock return of 102.93%, outperforming Nifty 100’s return of 50.03%. While the recent setback may raise concerns, Tata Steel Ltd.’s strong historical performance suggests resilience and potential for recovery in the face of evolving market conditions.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.76, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 4.53 percent to settle at 13.47 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1104
Decliners – 1461
52Wk High –  14
52Wk Low – 51
High Band Hitters – 111
Low Band Hitters – 112
200d SMA – 20311
50d SMA – 21929
20d SMA – 22184

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Eicher Motors (+4.25%), Maruti (+2.83%), Nestle India (+2.18%), Power Grid (+2.16%), and SBIN (+1.77%).

The top losers were Tata Steel (-2.25%), Tata Consumer (-2.08%), Tata Motors (-1.40%), Hindalco (-1.35%), and UPL (-1.31%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sector were Oil & Gas (+1.29%), Realty (+0.62%), FMCG (+0.48%), and Auto (+0.26%).

The top losers sector were Metal (-0.79%), Financial Services (-0.28%), Pharma (-0.24%), Media (-0.19%), and Consumer Durables (-0.19%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
OIL & GAS +1.29%
REALTY +0.62%
FMCG +0.48%
METAL -0.79%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.28%
PHARMA -0.24%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (INDUSTOWER open at -242.00 and close at +250.70), (BALRAMCHIN open at +364.00 and close at -357.35), (BIOCON open at -246.50 and close at +246.85), (HINDCOPPER open at -261.75 and close at -255.90), (PEL open at +822.00 and close at -811.30), (RBLBANK open at +230.00 and close at +233.30), (ZEEL open at -141.90 and close at -140.65), (BHEL open at -220.00 and close at +224.75), and (SAIL open at -123.60 and close at +123.65) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

PVRINOX, NMDC, BANDHANBNK, INDIACEM, PNB, GNFC, CANBK, and IDEA stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

ZEEL, BHEL, and SAIL stocks has the possibilities of exit from the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 21700 to 22000 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.