Indian Shares Swing Amid Caution Ahead of Key Earnings and Inflation Data

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 19,384.30 down by 0.28%

Today, the NSE Nifty 50 index commenced on a bullish note, reaching a higher level before experiencing a minor decline of 0.28 percent by the end of the trading session, concluding in negative territory. The Nifty index settled below the crucial level of 19400, indicating a bearish trend in the market.

The current market conditions in the Nifty have led to the activation of a bearish signal in the hourly momentum indicator, as it undergoes a negative crossover. This occurrence is primarily a result of the sideways consolidation phase that the Nifty is currently experiencing. As a result, the indicator’s movement appears to be oscillating rapidly, creating a whipsaw effect.

While the recent upswing in the US markets is undoubtedly positive, it is crucial for us to ascertain its sustainability going forward. At present, the Nifty index has been exhibiting a state of consolidation, with its trading range confined within the 19,300-19,550 zone. The key factor to watch for now is a decisive breakout in either direction, as such a move would provide valuable insights regarding the next potential directional shift in the market.

In the financial market on the date of 12/07/2023, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) recorded a buy value of 18,217.66 and a sale value of 19,460.10, resulting in a net value of -1,242.44 (in Rs. Cr.). On the same date, the Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) reported a buy value of 15,051.19, a sale value of 14,614.48, and a net value of 436.71 (in Rs. Cr.).

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.24%

In the financial realm, the Bank Nifty commenced the trading session with a positive tone, displaying an upward movement before succumbing to a slight decline of 0.24 percent, ultimately settling in the red zone at a value of 44,639.45. Simultaneously, the BSE Sensex, another prominent index, experienced a comparable downward trend, marking a decrease of 0.34 percent and concluding in the negative territory at a significant low of 65,393.90.

In terms of the Bank Nifty, the index remained in a corrective phase, persistently trading within a downward sloping channel. As the index has recently reached the lower boundary of this channel, it has coincidentally arrived at the significant 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 44,600. This convergence of price and Fibonacci level is expected to generate buying interest among market participants. Consequently, it becomes an important zone to watch for potential reversal or support in the Bank Nifty.

The Indian indices showcased a range-bound movement, which was primarily influenced by the anticipation of underwhelming IT sector earnings. However, the broader market index received support from the optimistic outlook surrounding the moderation of inflation in the United States. This dual influence played a significant role in shaping the market dynamics of the Indian indices during the observed period.

In the sectorial landscape, the Media sector emerged as the top gainer, registering a notable increase of 0.47%. Within this sector, SUN TV NETWORK LIMITED experienced a substantial gain of 2.34%, while TV18 BROADCAST LIMITED also witnessed a commendable rise of 2.34%. On the other hand, the IT sector faced a setback, declining by 0.71% during the trading session. Within this sector, LTIMINDTREE LIMITED experienced a notable loss of -2.55%, while L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES LIMITED recorded a decline of -1.20%.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 1.41% increase, AU Bank with a 0.92% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.61% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 0.18% increase, and State Bank of India with a 0.18% increase. On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included HDFC Bank with a 0.75% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 0.60% decline, Federal Bank with a 0.59% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 0.43% decline, and Axis Bank with a 0.34% decline. These results suggest that some banking stocks performed better for the day.

Buzz

Despite the global trend of decreasing currency volatility this year, the Indian rupee has experienced a significant decline in its trading fluctuations, leading traders from various financial hubs such as London and Singapore to question when the country’s central bank will ease its stringent control over the currency. In June, the one-month implied volatility of the rupee against the dollar plummeted to its lowest level since 2005, prompting inquiries from investors during Citigroup Inc.’s roadshows.

In the efforts to maintain stability in the currency, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has successfully replenished its reserves by approximately $32 billion in the current year. This substantial accumulation of reserves by the RBI involved absorbing foreign inflows, thereby ensuring the Indian currency remains steady. Additionally, during the initial four months of the year, the RBI’s dollar forward book experienced an increase of about $10 billion, further highlighting the central bank’s proactive approach to managing currency dynamics.

Buzzing

The share price of Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. witnessed a positive movement, increasing by 1.91% from its previous closing price of Rs 164.60. The stock of Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. reached a last traded price of 167.75. Over a span of three years, the stock provided a remarkable return of 109.55%, outperforming the Nifty 100 index, which generated a return of 76.19% during the same period. Furthermore, a 5-day moving crossover signal was observed yesterday, indicating a potential shift in price momentum. Historical data reveals an average price gain of 3.13% within seven days after the occurrence of this signal over the past five years. Additionally, the company exhibited impressive annual revenue growth of 38.94%, surpassing its three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.31%. It is noteworthy that, out of the last 18 years, only 1.39% of trading sessions resulted in intraday gains exceeding 5%.

The share price of Adani Enterprises Ltd. experienced a decline of -1.36% from its previous closing value of Rs 2,422.90. The last traded price of Adani Enterprises Ltd. stock stood at 2,390.00. Over a three-year period, the stock delivered an impressive return of 1417.16%, surpassing the return of the Nifty 100 index, which stood at 76.19%. Furthermore, the company showcased robust annual revenue growth of 96.18%, outperforming its three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.79%. It is noteworthy that, out of the last 18 years, only 4.86% of trading sessions resulted in intraday gains exceeding 5%.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.15, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 0.70 percent to settle at 10.94 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 5672
Decliners – 4927
52Wk High –  147
52Wk Low – 12
High Band Hitters – 69
Low Band Hitters – 35
200d SMA – 18016
50d SMA – 18660
20d SMA – 19046

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were ONGC (+1.91%), Eicher Motors (+1.26%), Nestle India (+1.02%), Kotak Bank (+0.61%), and SBI Life (+0.54%).

The top losers were Adani Enterprises (-1.36%), Tata Motors (-1.34%), UltraTech Cement (-1.33%), Infosys (-1.16%), and Adani Ports (-1.01%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sector

The top gainers sectors were Media (+0.47%), Pharma (+0.30%), Realty (+0.26%), FMCG (+0.18%), and Oil & Gas (+0.17%).

The top losers sectors were IT (-0.71%), Financial Services (-0.23%), Consumer Durables (-0.18%), Metal (-0.09%), and Auto (-0.02%).

The Nifty Midcap 50 was up by 0.36 percent, while the Nifty Small Cap 50 was up by 0.91 percent on the day.

The Nifty Midcap 50 index currently closed at 10,286.00, while the Nifty Small Cap 50 index currently closed at 5,133.00.

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +0.47%
PHARMA +0.30%
REALTY +0.26%
IT -0.71%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.23%
CONSUMER DURABLES -0.18%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list  (MANAPPURAM open at -131.25 and close at -129.60), (DELTACORP open at -222.05 and close at -189.50), (PNB open at +60.60 and close at +61.40), (IBULHSGFIN open at -124.35 and close at -123.65), (ZEEL open at -202.10 and close at -201.95), (INDIACEM open at +208.75 and close at -208.10), (BHEL open at +94.70 and close at +94.30), and (GRANULES open at -311.50 and close at -308.90) are not currently on the stock exchange.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has banned MANAPPURAM, DELTACORP, PNB, IBULHSGFIN, ZEEL, INDIACEM, BHEL and GRANULES from trading in the futures and options (F&O) segment of the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO ) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

HINDCOPPER, L&TFH, BALRAMCHIN, RBLBANK, and LICHSGFIN are stock that are potentially facing the possibility of being included in the ban list.

BHEL and GRANULES has the possibilities of exit from ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 19320 to 19480 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.