Global Shifts and Market Volatility—How Will Nifty React to the Union Budget?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,509.25 down by 0.09%

Today, the NSE Nifty 50 opened in the red, down by 0.09%, and closed lower at 24,509.25. This marks the second consecutive session of losses, as traders exercise caution ahead of the Union Budget announcements scheduled for July 23.

Throughout the session, the Nifty 50 showed volatility but managed to avoid a steep decline due to an oversold condition and a bullish divergence in the RSI. Despite the recovery in the initial hours, the index traded in the red, weighed down by heavy selling pressure and weak global cues. Reliance Industries and Wipro particularly dragged the market down following weaker-than-expected quarterly results.

Mid and small-cap stocks, however, showed positive momentum, soaring higher while the Nifty 50 stayed within a well-maintained range, closing with a marginal loss of 21.65 points. The doji-like pattern formed today suggests possible intra-day volatility during the Union Budget presentation.

Investors are adopting a wait-and-watch approach, closely monitoring the budget’s impact on market valuations and potential earnings downgrades. With geopolitical risks, rising interest rates, and volatile commodity prices, the Indian capital markets remain one of the best-performing among emerging markets in FY24.

Will the Union Budget spark a market rally or trigger further caution among investors?

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.03%

The Bank Nifty exhibited a slight turnaround, opening in red but ultimately closing in green at 52,280.40, marking a modest increase of 0.03%. This uptick indicates a resilient performance within the banking sector, despite broader market uncertainties.

Conversely, the BSE Sensex struggled to gain traction, ending the day down by 0.13% at 80,502.08. The Sensex’s decline reflects ongoing market caution and investor sentiment as anticipation builds for the upcoming Union Budget announcement.

In the sectorial front, the auto industry floored it, racking up a solid 1.15% gain. Leading the pack was Ashok Leyland, whose stock price skyrocketed 2.90%. Bharat Forge also joined the fast lane, accelerating by 2.56%.

Meanwhile, investors in the oil & gas sector slammed on the brakes. This segment sputtered to a halt, finishing the day as the biggest loser with a concerning 0.62% drop. Reliance Industries, a heavyweight in the sector, felt the brunt of the decline, with its stock price plummeting 3.42%. Oil India wasn’t immune either, slipping 2.56%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) demonstrated a net buying activity with a total buy value of Rs. 16,970.11 crore and a sell value of Rs. 13,526.05 crore, resulting in a net purchase of Rs. 3,444.06 crore.

Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) showed a contrasting trend with a buy value of Rs. 13,552.91 crore and a sell value of Rs. 15,205.25 crore, leading to a net selling value of Rs. 1,652.34 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included AU Bank with a 3.61% increase, Bandhan Bank with a 2.57% increase, HDFC Bank with a 2.16% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 2.04% increase, and Punjab National Bank with a 1.28% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Kotak Bank with a 3.25% decline, State Bank of India with a 1.28% decline, IndusInd Bank with a 0.65% decline, Axis Bank with a 0.48% decline, and ICICI Bank with a 0.45% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Rupee Rebound: A Temporary Truce or a Cause for Celebration?

The rupee seems to be catching its breath after its plunge to a record low! In early trade today, it clawed back 5 paise against the mighty US dollar, settling at Rs. 83.65. This small victory can be attributed to a couple of factors.

Firstly, the US dollar itself is feeling a bit under the weather. Worries about the American economy and some not-so-great data releases have caused the dollar index (a measure of its strength) to slip. This creates a welcome opportunity for other currencies, like the rupee, to gain some ground.

Secondly, there’s a feeling that foreign investors might be returning to Indian markets, bringing in much-needed cash. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), our financial guardian, might be stepping in to prevent the rupee from falling further.

But hold on a second, before we start popping the champagne corks. The rupee’s appreciation is still quite modest. The bigger question remains: is this a temporary pause or a sign of a stronger rupee to come? Only time, and the complex dance of global markets, will tell.

Stocks Highlights

Grasim Industries defied gravity, rocketing 2.58% to Rs. 2,813.90. This stellar performance was fueled by their impressive quarterly results. Buckle up, because here’s the exciting part – they achieved the highest revenue growth in the past 3 years, a whopping 18.41% jump! Looks like bulls are in charge for Grasim, but a cautionary yellow flag waves in the distance.

A technical indicator suggests a potential reversal – a weekly stochastic crossover. Historically, this has led to an average price dip of 5.53% within 7 weeks. Will the good times continue, or will the bears come out to play?

On the flip side, Wipro stumbled today, with its share price plummeting a worrisome 9.31% to Rs. 505.35. Investors seem to be hitting the brakes after the company reported a sales decline for the first time in 3 years.

This contraction is definitely cause for concern. Adding fuel to the fire, the dreaded weekly stochastic crossover appeared again, mirroring Grasim. Could this signal another 7 weeks of decline, averaging -4.56% historically? Wipro’s 3-year return of just 2.39% compared to the Nifty 100’s 52.57% paints a worrying picture.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 1.23, and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix increased by 4.13 to settle at 15.44 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1489
Decliners – 1208
52Wk High – 70
52Wk Low – 33
High Band Hitters – 113
Low Band Hitters – 122
200d SMA – 21767
50d SMA – 23401
20d SMA – 24265

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Grasim (+2.58%), UltraTech Cement (+2.41%), NTPC (+2.22%), HDFC Bank (+2.16%), and M&M (+2.03%).

The top losers were Wipro (-9.31%), Reliance (-3.42%), Kotak Bank (-3.25%), ITC (-1.74%), and SBI Life (-1.74%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Auto (+1.15%), Pharma (+1.06%), Metal (+1.02%), Consumer Durables (+0.40%), and Financial Services (+0.13%).

The top losers sector were Oil & Gas (-0.62%), Realty (-0.48%), Media (-0.47%), IT (-0.38%), and FMCG (-0.34%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
AUTO +1.15%
PHARMA +1.06%
METAL +1.02%
OIL & GAS -0.62%
REALTY -0.48%
MEDIA -0.47%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (INDIACEM open at -339.95 and close at +351.35), (SAIL open at -141.40 and close at +143.28), (BANDHANBNK open at -191.03 and close at +197.94), (HAL open at -4799.75 and close at +4997.25), (PEL open at -921.00 and close at +940.15), (VEDL open at -442.00 and close at +448.75), (HINDCOPPER open at -304.80 and close at +322.35), (GMRINFRA open at -92.50 and close at +94.00), and (BALRAMCHIN open at -437.00 and close at -444.50) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

NMDC, IDEA, IDFCFIRSTB, LTF, PVRINOX, BIOCON, IEX, ABFRL, IRCTC, CHAMBLFERT, PNB, INDUSTOWER, RAMCOCEM, and TATACHEM stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

PEL, VEDL, HINDCOPPER, GMRINFRA, and BALRAMCHIN stocks has the possibilities of exit from ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24250 to 24750 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.