Doji Drama: Stock Market Poised for Breakout… But Which Way?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,320.55 down by 0.01%

The NSE Nifty 50 index navigated a volatile session on July 8, starting slightly lower and closing with a marginal decline of 0.01% at 24,320.55 points. The day saw the index dipping below 24,250 before recovering on lower-level buying, particularly in FMCG stocks, to end almost flat.

Investor sentiment remained subdued, reflected in the formation of a Doji-type candle on the daily charts, indicating indecision between bullish and bearish forces. The market’s non-directional movement underscored cautious sentiment as investors weighed recent record highs against global uncertainties.

Profit booking: Investors, having enjoyed a strong market run-up, opted to secure some gains.

Muted Asian cues: Weakness in other Asian markets added to the cautious sentiment.

Upcoming earnings season: With IT giants like TCS reporting results from July 11th onwards, investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Indian markets closed on a flat note, influenced by profit-taking in select sectors like banking, telecom, and realty. Weak cues from Asian markets and anticipation around upcoming US inflation data added to the cautious outlook.

Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the commencement of Q1FY25 earnings season, beginning with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on July 11. Expectations are tempered amidst stable input prices and potential margin pressures, which could impact earnings and valuations.

Amidst ongoing global trade tensions and upcoming economic data releases, including key inflation figures in the US, market participants are poised for further insights into the future trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate policies. This backdrop suggests continued vigilance and strategic positioning amidst market consolidation.

Bank Nifty: Down by 0.45%

Bank Nifty commenced with a decline, opening in the red with a 0.45% decrease, ultimately closing at 52,425.80, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment in the banking sector. Similarly, the BSE Sensex began slightly lower, experiencing a marginal 0.05% dip and concluding the session at 79,960.38, highlighting a subdued market performance across broader equities.

In the sectorial front, the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector demonstrated impressive growth, soaring by 1.63%. Leading the charge was Marico Ltd., which saw a substantial increase of 4.01%. Not far behind, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. experienced a notable rise of 3.73%.

On the flip side, the Consumer Durables sector faced a challenging day, emerging as the top loser with a decline of 1.28%. Titan Company Ltd. bore the brunt of this downturn, experiencing a significant drop of 3.33%. Similarly, Blue Star Ltd. encountered a notable decrease of 2.82%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs/FPIs) recorded a buy value of Rs. 13,564.41 crore and a sale value of Rs. 13,503.43 crore, resulting in a marginal net inflow of Rs. 60.98 crore.

Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) registered a higher buy value of Rs. 14,355.09 crore against a sale value of Rs. 11,488.30 crore, leading to a substantial net inflow of Rs. 2,866.79 crore into the market.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Federal Bank with a 1.13% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 0.33% increase, ICICI Bank with a 0.29% increase, Kotak Bank with a 0.17% increase, and Axis Bank with a 0.15% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included AU Bank with a 4.10% decline, Bank of Baroda with a 3.94% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 1.59% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 1.08% decline, and HDFC Bank with a 0.71% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver

Today 22 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today 24 Carat Gold Price Per Gram in India (INR)

Today Silver Price 1 Gram/KG in India (INR)

Rupee Declines Slightly Amid Market Pressures

Will a Weaker Dollar Provide Relief?

The Indian Rupee’s recent performance has been a bit of a rollercoaster. After initial gains, it ultimately ended the day flat against the US Dollar, settling at 83.50. This comes despite a weaker Dollar on the global market, fueled by disappointing US jobs data.

So, what’s holding the Rupee back? Investor sentiment seems to be the culprit. A muted performance by domestic stock markets dampened investor confidence, putting pressure on the Rupee.

However, there’s a silver lining. The weak Dollar is a positive sign for the Rupee’s long-term outlook. Additionally, falling crude oil prices – another factor influencing the Rupee’s value – could provide further support.

The upcoming FOMC meeting, where the US Federal Reserve might decide to cut interest rates, is another factor to watch. Lower interest rates could weaken the Dollar further, potentially benefiting the Rupee.

While the immediate future might be a bit bumpy, the overall outlook for the Rupee seems cautiously optimistic, especially with a weaker Dollar on the horizon.

Stocks Highlights

Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC) has demonstrated impressive market performance, with its share price increasing by 4.15% from its previous close of Rs 288.20, reaching a last traded price of Rs 300.15. This surge highlights the company’s robust financial health, supported by a return on equity (ROE) of 14.6% for the year ending March 31, 2024, outperforming its five-year average of 12.06%.

ONGC has efficiently managed its expenses, allocating 1.59% of operating revenues to interest expenses and 1.14% to employee costs. Over the past three years, ONGC has delivered a remarkable return of 132.33%, significantly outpacing the Nifty 100’s 52.57% return and the Nifty Energy’s 94.9% return.

Titan Company Ltd., however, faced a downturn, with its share price falling by 3.33% from its previous close of Rs 3,269.35 to a last traded price of Rs 3,160.45. Despite this decline, Titan has showcased strong financial performance, delivering a ROE of 37.21% for the year ending March 31, 2024, surpassing its five-year average of 25.48%.

The company allocated 1.21% of its operating revenues to interest expenses and 3.65% to employee costs. A weekly stochastic crossover suggests potential bearish trends, with historical data indicating an average price decline of 5.35% within seven weeks following this signal. Nonetheless, Titan has provided a solid three-year return of 88.9%, outperforming the Nifty 100’s 52.57% return.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.67, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix increased by 7.12 to settle at 13.60 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1079
Decliners – 1615
52Wk High – 250
52Wk Low – 16
High Band Hitters – 142
Low Band Hitters – 111
200d SMA – 21559
50d SMA – 23037
20d SMA – 23777

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were ONGC (+4.15%), ITC (+2.34%), HDFC Life (+2.25%), Hindustan Unilever (+1.33%), and Wipro (+1.33%).

The top losers were Titan (-3.33%), Divi’s Laboratories (-3.23%), BPCL (-2.49%), Shriram Finance (-1.95%), and Adani Ports (-1.56%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were FMCG (+1.63%), Oil & Gas (+0.88%), and IT (+0.06%).

The top losers sector were Consumer Durables (-1.28%), Metal (-0.93%), Pharma (-0.63%), Auto (-0.54%), and Realty (-0.43%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
FMCG +1.63%
OIL & GAS +0.88%
IT +0.06%
CONSUMER DURABLES -1.28%
METAL -0.93%
PHARMA -0.63%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (GNFC open at -714.00 and close at -713.95), (INDIACEM open at -284.55 and close at -277.00), (PEL open at -935.20 and close at -930.10), (BANDHANBNK open at -202.46 and close at +204.47), (ABFRL open at -328.70 and close at +322.25), and (HINDCOPPER open at +333.50 and close at +342.25) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

INDUSTOWER, IEX, BALRAMCHIN, CHAMBLFERT, IDFCFIRSTB, GMRINFRA, IDEA, SAIL, and NMDC stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 24100 to 24450 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.