Did Nifty’s Friday drop end its winning streak despite a U.S. rate cut? Will October bring bullish momentum or surprises?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 26,178.95 down by 0.14%

September 27, 2024, was a rollercoaster ride for the NSE Nifty 50, which kicked off in the green but ultimately closed in the red, down 0.14% at 26,178.95. Just last week, the index had surged to an all-time high of 26,277.35, but Friday marked a notable shift as it failed to hold onto those gains.

Despite the buzz from a significant U.S. rate cut and a strong quarterly report from Accenture, the Nifty couldn’t maintain its momentum. Selling pressure swept through the media, banking, and realty sectors, leaving investors cautious.

While the week showed promise, with both indices rising by 1%, Friday’s session reminded us of the volatility lurking beneath the surface. The market opened strong but faced a range-bound struggle before succumbing to downward pressure in the afternoon.

Despite this dip, the sentiment remains robust, with the Nifty still above critical moving averages. As long as it stays above 25,900, there’s potential for a rebound. The VIX has reached a fresh two-month low, adding a layer of intrigue to the bullish outlook.

Is Foreign Investment Just Around the Corner?

Interestingly, foreign investment flows into Indian markets remain a fraction of their potential. Many global investors are biding their time, waiting for a correction and more reasonable valuations. Recent inflows are merely a trickle compared to what could be unleashed if sentiment shifts.

What’s Next for Interest Rates?

Adding to the suspense, India’s central bank watchers are on high alert as the monetary policy meeting on October 9 approaches. With three external members of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee set to expire on October 4, the uncertainty around new appointments raises questions about upcoming interest rate decisions.

A report suggests that lower short-term borrowing by the government and impending rate cuts could bolster the bull-steepening bias of the Government Securities yield curve in the near term. This means that short-term interest rates may fall faster than long-term rates, steepening the yield curve—something to keep an eye on!

What Lies Ahead?

As the dust settles from this week’s market activity, will we see foreign investors jump back in? And how will the upcoming monetary policy decisions impact the markets? The answers could shape the investment landscape in the days ahead!

Bank Nifty: Down by 1.00%

The Bank Nifty started the day in the green but couldn’t hold onto its gains, eventually slipping by 1.00% and closing in the red at 53,834.30. A similar story unfolded for the BSE Sensex, which also saw a 0.31% drop, ending the session at a low of 85,571.85.

In a surprising twist on the sectoral front, the Oil & Gas sector surged with an impressive 2.37% gain. The spotlight shone brightly on Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd., which soared 6.23%, while Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. followed closely behind, climbing 4.58%.

However, not all sectors shared this prosperity. The Media sector emerged as the top loser, slipping 1.55%. Within this struggling sector, Saregama India Ltd. faced a notable decline, plummeting 4.35%, and PVR INOX Ltd. wasn’t far behind, losing 3.51%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) recorded a buy value of Rs. 26,135.90 crore but faced a sale value of Rs. 27,345.00 crore, resulting in a net outflow of Rs. 1,209.10 crore.

On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) showed a more optimistic stance with a buy value of Rs. 50,042.69 crore against a sale value of Rs. 43,156.04 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs. 6,886.65 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 1.37% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 1.20% increase, IndusInd Bank with a 0.64% increase, Federal Bank with a 0.35% increase, and IDFC First Bank with a 0.22% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included HDFC Bank with a 1.71% decline, ICICI Bank with a 1.70% decline, Kotak Bank with a 1.34% decline, AU Bank with a 0.96% decline, and Bandhan Bank with a 0.68% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 27th September, 2024

Rupee Slips 4 Paise Amid Market Uncertainty—What’s Fueling the Decline?

The rupee slipped 4 paise, closing at 83.70 against the US dollar on Friday, raising questions about the forces at play. With subdued domestic equity markets and month-end demand for the American currency, the pressure was evident.

But there’s a twist—sliding crude prices on the global stage and a resurgence of foreign fund inflows acted as a cushion, limiting further losses for the rupee.

During the day, the local currency opened at 83.64, fluctuating between a high of 83.62 and a low of 83.71, before finally settling at 83.70—a 4 paise drop from Thursday’s close.

Speaking of Thursday, the rupee had already taken a hit, declining 8 paise to close at 83.66.

As investors looked to the US personal consumption expenditure data for clarity, the dollar index crept up by 0.06% to 100.30, while Brent crude slipped 0.03%, settling at 71.58 in futures trade.

What does this mean for the markets ahead? Will the rupee find stability or continue its slide?

Stocks Highlights

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) has been making headlines after its share price surged by an impressive 6.23%, reaching Rs. 366.60 from a previous close of Rs. 345.10. Intraday gains of this magnitude are rare—only 1.77% of trading sessions in the past 19 years have seen BPCL achieve more than 5% in a single day.

But that’s not the only indicator of bullish momentum. The company outperformed its 5-year average Return on Equity (ROE), delivering a remarkable 35.51% as of March 31, 2024, compared to its 21.77% historical average. It’s a sign of financial strength that investors can’t ignore.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing. BPCL’s topline contracted by 5.13%, marking the first revenue dip in three years. Still, the bulls seem undeterred, as a 20-day moving average crossover—a classic buy signal—appeared just yesterday. Historically, this has led to an average price gain of 2.87% within a week. Could this signal even more growth on the horizon?

Meanwhile, Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. finds itself on the opposite side of the market. The stock fell by 2.96%, closing at Rs. 354.65 from its previous Rs. 365.45. Interestingly, only 0.99% of its trading sessions over the last 17 years saw intraday gains above 5%.

Financial pressures seem to be mounting too, with the company spending 19.14% of its operating revenues on interest expenses, and 5.31% on employee costs as of March 2024.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.98, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 0.62 to settle at 11.93 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1369
Decliners – 1390
52Wk High – 164
52Wk Low – 41
High Band Hitters – 105
Low Band Hitters – 63
200d SMA – 23039
50d SMA – 24955
20d SMA – 25453

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were BPCL (+6.23%), Cipla (+3.25%), Sun Pharmaceuticals (+2.45%), Divi’s Laboratories (+2.36%), and Reliance (+1.71%).

The top losers were Power Grid (-2.96%), Bharti Airtel (-1.93%), HDFC Bank (-1.71%), ICICI Bank (-1.70%), and Hero MotoCorp (-1.59%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Oil & Gas (+2.37%), Pharma (+1.15%), Metal (+0.79%), Consumer Durables (+0.53%), and Auto (+0.42%).

The top losers sector were Media (-1.55%), Realty (-1.19%), Financial Services (-0.98%), and FMCG (-0.47%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
OIL & GAS +2.37%
PHARMA +1.15%
METAL +0.79%
MEDIA -1.55%
REALTY -1.19%
FINANCIAL SERVICES -0.98%

Stocks Ban List

Today, there are no stocks listed in the F&O ban list by SEBI.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

RBLBANK stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 25900 to 26400 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.