Could Wednesday’s surprising turn signal a new era for the Nifty? Will Dalal Street’s thrilling ascent continue?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 26,004.15 up by 0.25%

September 25, 2024. The NSE Nifty 50 opened in the red but quickly shifted gears, ending the day up by 0.25% and making history by closing above 26,000 for the first time. The Nifty closed at 26,004.15, marking an increase of 63.75 points. What fueled this remarkable turnaround?

After forming a bearish engulfing candle, indicating a narrow range of movement following a surge in the previous sessions, the market initially opened on a slightly negative note. However, it quickly regained traction, supported by strong performances in the energy, metal, and media sectors. The last half-hour of trading saw a flurry of buying, propelling the index to new heights despite earlier losses.

The sentiment remains positive, especially as the Nifty has held above the crucial 25,900 level, where aggressive put writing suggests strong support. The technical outlook is also favorable, with the Nifty sustaining above its short-term moving average and showing no signs of reversal in momentum indicators. Will this upward trajectory continue? Resistance levels are anticipated at 26,200-26,250.

However, the market isn’t without its challenges. Mid and small caps underperformed, correcting by 0.63% and 0.42%, respectively, driven by valuation concerns. The domestic market could face short-term hurdles due to a decline in foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, with funds shifting to other emerging markets boasting cheaper valuations. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East have made gold an increasingly attractive safe-haven asset.

NSE’s Rising Valuation: Is an IPO on the Horizon?

In a notable development, the National Stock Exchange of India’s (NSE) valuation in private markets has doubled to $36 billion in just four months, driven by expectations of a potential IPO in early 2025. Unlisted shares of the world’s largest derivative exchange are in high demand among wealth managers, with prices recently ranging from Rs. 5,700-6,500 (approximately $68 to $78).

While one source indicates that the NSE is working diligently on its IPO documentation, there are whispers that the listing may still take longer than anticipated. What does this mean for investors?

The renewed interest from private equity and venture capital players highlights a growing optimism in the secondary markets, as benchmark indices consistently reach new highs. Interestingly, the share of offer for sale (OFS)—shares offloaded by existing investors like private equity and venture capitalists—in the overall IPO mobilization this year has increased, indicating a shift from fresh capital being raised.

As the market evolves, what strategies should investors consider? With a blend of excitement and caution in the air, all eyes are on the Nifty and the impending developments from the NSE.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.25%

The Bank Nifty and BSE Sensex ending the day in green, signaling a strong recovery. Despite early losses, Bank Nifty managed to gain 0.25% by the end of the session, closing at 54,101.65, showcasing resilience in the banking sector.

Similarly, the BSE Sensex also followed a similar trajectory. After starting the day on a lower note, it climbed steadily and closed with a 0.30% gain, hitting an impressive 85,169.87.

In the sectorial front, the Media sector shines brightly, posting a notable 2.94% gain. Leading this surge is Saregama India Ltd., skyrocketing by an impressive 14.93%. Not far behind is Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd., enjoying a solid rise of 5.77%.

In contrast, the IT sector finds itself on shaky ground, losing 0.67%. Two key players, LTIMindtree Ltd. and Tech Mahindra Ltd., reflect this downward trend. LTIMindtree Ltd. saw a dip of 3.69%, while Tech Mahindra Ltd. slipped by 2.27%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) recorded a buy value of Rs. 15,086.88 Cr. against a sale value of Rs. 16,060.82 Cr., resulting in a net value of -Rs. 973.94 Cr., indicating a trend of selling over buying.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) displayed a more optimistic stance with a buy value of Rs. 12,899.34 Cr. and a sale value of Rs. 11,120.35 Cr., leading to a net value of Rs. 1,778.99 Cr.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Axis Bank with a 2.39% increase, Federal Bank with a 0.86% increase, HDFC Bank with a 0.67% increase, and ICICI Bank with a 0.56% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Punjab National Bank with a 2.74% decline, Bandhan Bank with a 1.38% decline, IDFC First Bank with a 0.88% decline, Kotak Bank with a 0.82% decline, and AU Bank with a 0.69% decline. These results suggest that some of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 25th September, 2024

The Rupee’s Resilience: Is the Indian Currency Set to Strengthen Further?

In a promising turn of events, the rupee has appreciated by 10 paise to 83.53 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday. This movement comes amid an overall weakness of the dollar in the overseas market, particularly following a significant dip in US consumer confidence.

What’s causing this shift? The latest reports show that US consumer confidence dropped sharply to 98.7 from 105.6 in August—the most substantial decline in three years. This weakening sentiment has impacted the dollar, allowing the rupee to gain momentum.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.59 against the American currency and touched 83.54, marking a rise of 10 paise from its previous close. Interestingly, just a day prior, the rupee had depreciated by 9 paise, closing at 83.63 against the dollar.

Despite Tuesday’s downturn, the rupee opened stronger today, bolstered by the dollar’s decline against both Asian and European currencies. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, fell by 0.21%, now sitting at 100.25 points.

On another note, Brent crude, the international benchmark, is also showing signs of pressure, trading lower by 0.28% at $74.96 per barrel in futures trade.

All in all, the rupee appears to be holding steady within a well-defined range, thanks in part to active interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Will this upward trend continue, or is there more volatility ahead?

Stocks Highlights

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. just delivered a solid 4.04% jump from its previous close of Rs 350.05, with its last traded price standing at Rs 364.20. But here’s a fascinating fact: in the last 17 years, only 0.99% of trading sessions saw intraday gains above 5%. Could this climb be hinting at a bigger breakout?

When it comes to returns, Power Grid’s 164.06% surge over the past 3 years leaves the Nifty 100 in the dust, which offered only a 50.53% return. Yet, compared to the BSE Power sector’s impressive 181.45%, Power Grid’s performance is strong but slightly behind.

On the flip side, LTIMindtree Ltd. took a hit, sliding -3.69% from Rs 6,344.10 to Rs 6,110.00. Interestingly, over the last 8 years, only 1.38% of trading sessions have shown gains higher than 5%. But wait – a bullish signal might be brewing. A 10-day moving average crossover just occurred, and historically, this sign has led to an average 3.94% gain within the next week.

Despite recent challenges, LTIMindtree’s focus on efficiency shines through: less than 1% of revenues go to interest expenses, while a significant 64% is directed towards employees.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.69, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 7.37 to settle at 12.74 and the FIIs were net sellers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1131
Decliners – 1637
52Wk High – 135
52Wk Low – 34
High Band Hitters – 101
Low Band Hitters – 76
200d SMA – 22986
50d SMA – 24895
20d SMA – 25353

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Power Grid (+4.04%), Axis Bank (+2.39%), NTPC (+2.02%), Bajaj Finserv (+1.59%), and Grasim (+1.55%).

The top losers were LTIM (-3.69%), Tech Mahindra (-2.27%), Tata Consumer (-1.87%), Tata Motors (-1.36%), and Titan (-1.13%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Media (+2.94%), Realty (+0.66%), Metal (+0.43%), Financial Services (+0.42%), and Pharma (+0.26%).

The top losers sector were IT (-0.67%), Consumer Durables (-0.51%), FMCG (-0.42%), and Auto (-0.12%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +2.94%
REALTY +0.66%
METAL +0.43%
IT -0.67%
CONSUMER DURABLES -0.51%
FMCG -0.42%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (GRANULES close at -555.95), (IEX close at -202.52), (HINDCOPPER close at -340.25), (ABFRL close at -343.40), and (IDEA close at -10.36) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

RBLBANK, CONCOR, PEL, BANDHANBNK, IDFCFIRSTB, ESCORTS, NMDC, DIXON, MANAPPURAM, CANBK, and HAL stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 25800 to 26150 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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What’s Brewing in the Markets? A Day of Surprises Awaits! Can Nifty50 Break the 26,000 Barrier?
Nifty Soars to New Heights – But at What Cost for Retail Traders?  Is the 26,000 Mark the Next Milestone?

This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.