Choppy Day, But Nifty Still Climbs – What’s Driving This Surge? Can the Nifty Hold Its Ground After a Wild Ride?

NiftyTrader • November 27, 2024

Post Views: 459

Index	Price	Change	% Chg
Nifty 50	24,274.90	+80.40	+0.33%
Nifty MidCap 50	15,730.40	+95.05	+0.61%
Nifty SmallCap 50	8,911.45	+103.90	+1.18%
Nifty Bank	52,301.80	+110.30	+0.21%
Nifty Financial	24,171.55	+124.75	+0.52%
BSE SENSEX	80,234.08	+230.02	+0.29%

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 24,274.90 up by 0.33%

📈 NSE Nifty 50 posted a modest gain of 0.33% on November 27, closing at 24,274.90 after a volatile trading session. Despite mixed global cues and a choppy start, the benchmark index gained 80.40 points, overcoming early losses and ending comfortably above 24,250. The index fluctuated within a range of 24,354.55 – 24,145.65, reflecting a market in consolidation.

Market Trends: A Narrow Range with Late Momentum

The day began flat, with range-bound trading in the first half. However, select heavyweight stocks saw a surge in the second hour, pushing the Nifty past 24,350. Despite a brief pullback at higher levels, the index managed to stay in the green. Auto, energy, metal, and media stocks led the charge, helping the index close above 24,250, erasing the previous session’s losses.

Broader Market Performance: Midcap and Smallcap Outperformance

Broader indices performed better, with the Nifty Midcap index rising 0.6% and the Nifty Smallcap index gaining 1.3%. This trend highlights strong momentum in smaller stocks, which have been buoyed by easing concerns over FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) selling.

A Range-Bound Market Phase: What’s Next for Nifty?

The market has been range-bound for the third consecutive session, but experts suggest that the upcoming monthly expiry of November derivatives contracts could trigger a breakout above 24,350, paving the way for a move toward 24,550. The key support level is seen at 24,000, and a break below that could push the index toward 23,800 – 23,600.

Adani Group Soars: A 12% Rally Sparks Renewed Optimism

🚀 Adani Group stocks surged across the board after Adani Green Energy Ltd. confirmed that Gautam Adani and his associates have not been charged under the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. This news led to a massive Rs 1.2 lakh crore recovery in market capitalization for the conglomerate’s listed firms.

Top Performers in the Adani Group

Adani Enterprises surged by 12%, while Adani Ports rose by 6%.
Adani Power and Adani Total Gas were standout performers, jumping by 20%.
Other group stocks, including Adani Green Energy and Adani Wilmar, rose by up to 10%.

This rally came after the US Department of Justice filed an indictment that did not mention the Adani Group’s chairman or key executives in any violations related to the FCPA, which had previously caused investor jitters.

Global Markets in Flux: US, Europe, and Asia Show Diverging Trends

While Indian markets ended in the green, global markets were more mixed. In Asia, major indices showed varied performances:

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.80%.
China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.51%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.32%.
Singapore’s FTSE Straits Times slipped by 0.12%.

Meanwhile, in Europe, indices were mostly in the red as investors awaited key economic data. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.27%, and Germany’s DAX lost 1.13%. Despite a 0.11% gain in the UK’s FTSE 100, other European indices struggled to stay positive.

Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50: Breakout or Breakdown?

The Nifty 50 index has shown resilience in the consolidation phase. Experts suggest that a breakout above 24,420 could trigger a significant upward move for the index, potentially heading towards 24,550. On the downside, support is at 24,100, and if the index breaches this level, it could test lower levels around 23,800 – 23,600.

As we approach the expiry of November derivatives contracts, there’s a possibility of increased volatility. Investors should keep an eye on global cues and domestic earnings forecasts for the second half of FY25, which are expected to drive market sentiment.

Conclusion: Mixed Signals, But Optimism Prevails

Despite some global uncertainties, Indian markets continue to demonstrate resilience. The rally in Adani Group stocks has provided a boost, while broader market indices show strength in midcap and smallcap stocks. As the market remains in a consolidation phase, a decisive breakout above 24,350 could set the stage for further upside. However, investors should remain cautious and stay prepared for any market shifts, especially with global economic data on the horizon.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.21%

In a promising start to the day, the Bank Nifty opened in the green, gaining 0.21% and closing at a solid 52,301.80. But what does this mean for the market? Could this be the beginning of a bigger rally for the banking sector? Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex followed suit, climbing by 0.29% to settle at a new high of 80,234.08.

In the sectorial front, Media emerged as the star performer, posting a notable gain of 0.98%. Within this sector, PVR INOX Ltd. made headlines with a robust 2.15% rise, showcasing its resilience in the entertainment space. Right behind, Saregama India Ltd. recorded an impressive 2.07% increase, benefiting from its stronghold in the music and content arena.

On the flip side, Pharma struggled to keep up, finishing as the day’s top loser with a 0.61% decline. Granules India Ltd. bore the brunt, sliding by a sharp 2.29%, followed closely by IPCA Laboratories Ltd., which dipped 2.25%.

Foreign Institutional Investors showed a net buying value of ₹7.78 crore today, with a slight buy value of ₹13,027.06 crore and a sale value of ₹13,019.28 crore.

Domestic Institutional Investors, on the other hand, displayed a more robust buying interest. With a buy value of ₹10,230.12 crore and a sale value of ₹8,928.15 crore, the DIIs recorded a net buying value of ₹1,301.97 crore.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included HDFC Bank with a 1.34% increase, and Axis Bank with a 0.54% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included IDFC First Bank with a 1.37% decline, Punjab National Bank with a 0.63% decline, Federal Bank with a 0.63% decline, State Bank of India with a 0.54% decline, and IndusInd Bank with a 0.47% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks not performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 27th November, 2024

22 K Gold / g	₹ 7,105	+ ₹ 25
24 K Gold / g	₹ 7,751	+ ₹ 27
18 K Gold / g	₹ 5,813	+ ₹ 20

Silver / g	₹ 89.50
Silver / kg	₹ 89,500

Is the Rupee Headed for More Trouble? What’s Behind the Fall to 84.44 Against the US Dollar?

The Indian Rupee faced a sharp dip of 15 paise, settling at 84.44 against the US dollar in early trade today. But what’s driving this downturn, and could there be more volatility ahead?

Rupee’s Early Struggles Opening at 84.38, the rupee quickly fell further, marking a decline of 9 paise from its previous close. This slide continued, ending up 15 paise lower at 84.44. This drop comes amid muted trends in the domestic equity markets, reflecting broader market sentiment.

Why the Sudden Decline? Despite the rupee’s drop, a decline in the dollar index and a slight fall in Brent crude prices prevented a steeper plunge. These external factors seem to have cushioned the fall, though experts remain cautious about the near-term outlook.

On Tuesday, the rupee had managed to pare some losses, closing flat at 84.29, after earlier dipping lower. This suggests some level of resilience, but the overall trend remains downward for now.

Liquidity Concerns Experts point to the recent liquidity deficit in the Indian banking sector, as GST payments of ₹1.6-1.8 lakh crore drained cash reserves. This is the first time in two months that the banking system has entered a deficit, and the Reserve Bank of India’s interventions in the forex markets to defend the rupee only added pressure on liquidity.

What’s Next for the Rupee? Market analysts predict that the rupee may trade within the range of 84.00 to 84.50 in the near term. Much of the currency’s movement will depend on upcoming US economic data—due to be released later today—providing fresh insights into the greenback’s strength.

External Factors at Play Interestingly, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, dropped 0.15% to 106.84, offering a glimmer of relief for the rupee. Meanwhile, Brent crude also saw a marginal dip of 0.10%, falling to $72.74 per barrel, which could further stabilize the rupee’s fortunes in the coming days.

External Factors at Play The rupee’s fluctuations are a signal that market conditions are uncertain. With global and domestic factors playing into its value, investors should remain cautious and keep an eye on the data coming from the US and other macroeconomic indicators. Will the rupee continue to slip, or is there hope for a rebound? The answer is still up in the air, but stay tuned—this story is far from over.

Stocks Highlights

📈 Adani Enterprises Ltd. surged by a staggering 11.56%! From its previous close of ₹2,150.50, the stock skyrocketed to a last traded price of ₹2,399.00, turning heads across the market. But is everything as rosy as it seems? Let’s dive deeper:

Intraday Drama In the last 20 years, only 3.86% of trading sessions recorded intraday declines of over 5%, showcasing the stock’s resilience. Despite the volatility, it remains a stock to watch closely.

Challenges on the Horizon While Adani Enterprises experienced an impressive gain today, the company faced a topline contraction with a revenue drop of 28.87%, marking the first decline in three years. This raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the company’s growth trajectory.

Stock Returns Lag Over the last three years, the stock delivered a 28.81% return, which, while decent, lagged behind Nifty 100’s stellar 44.13% growth. It’s a sign that the company may be facing tougher competition in the market.

Expenses to Watch In terms of expenses, Adani Enterprises spent 4.72% of its operating revenue on interest expenses and 2.42% on employee costs (FY 2024). This could indicate financial strain, especially with the revenue dip.

📉 Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. dropped by -1.34%, closing at ₹6,982.00 from its previous close of ₹7,076.55. But don’t count this healthcare giant out just yet!

Intraday Fact Check In the past 20 years, only 2.24% of trading sessions saw intraday gains higher than 5%, which makes today’s slight dip an intriguing move, especially given the stock’s past performance.

A Bullish Signal Appears Despite the downturn, a daily MACD crossover signal appeared, suggesting a potential bull run. Historically, this pattern has led to an average 4.11% price gain within 10 days over the last decade, which could point to a bounce-back soon.

Returns vs Peers Over three years, Apollo Hospitals delivered a 24.42% return, which is below Nifty 100’s impressive 44.13%. However, its healthcare sector dominance still provides optimism for future growth.

Key Expenses Breakdown In FY 2024, Apollo Hospitals spent 2.36% of its operating revenue on interest expenses and 13.08% on employee costs. These figures show how the company is managing its operational costs, but they could also indicate areas where financial efficiency may be improved.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 2.20 and the market breadth was positive. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 5.21 to settle at 14.51 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1893
Decliners – 862
52Wk High – 71
52Wk Low – 37
High Band Hitters – 144
Low Band Hitters – 38
200d SMA – 23627
50d SMA – 24721
20d SMA – 24020

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Adani Enterprises (+11.56%), Adani Ports (+5.90%), BEL (+3.07%), Trent (+2.80%), and NTPC (+2.24%).

The top losers were Apollo Hospitals (-1.34%), Titan (-1.07%), Wipro (-0.87%), Shriram Finance (-0.83%), and Hindalco (-0.72%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainer sectors were Media (+0.98%), Metal (+0.79%), Oil & Gas (+0.56%), Financial Services (+0.52%), and Auto (+0.45%).

The top losers sectors were Pharma (-0.61%), Realty (-0.41%), and IT (-0.15%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
MEDIA +0.98%
METAL +0.79%
OIL & GAS +0.56%
PHARMA -0.61%
REALTY -0.41%
IT -0.15%

Stocks Ban List

No stocks are included in SEBI’s F&O ban list today.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

PEL, BANDHANBNK, SAIL, HINDCOPPER, MANAPPURAM, ABFRL, ADANIENT, RBLBANK, NATIONALUM, and LTF stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.