Has Nifty set the stage for a thrilling market twist? Is today the day the market breaks all barriers?

At the close, the Nifty 50 was at 26,216.05 up by 0.81%

September 26, 2024. Today was a thrilling day for the NSE Nifty 50 as it kicked off on a high note, rising by 0.81% and closing in the green above 26,200. Could this be a sign of greater things to come? The domestic benchmark indices soared to record highs, driven primarily by gains in the Auto and IT sectors, as investors shifted their focus back to the US amidst fading optimism regarding China’s stimulus package.

A New Era for Indian Indices
As the bulls tightened their grip on September 26, the Nifty made significant strides, hitting fresh peaks before finishing at a record-high closing level of 26,216.05, up by 211.90 points. The index even reached an intraday high of 26,250.90. The Nifty Bank index also hit a new milestone at 54,467.35. Despite a flat start, the market accelerated as the day progressed, with buying momentum across sectors propelling the Nifty to unprecedented heights.

The bulls were certainly in charge today, as the index compounded its gains, wrapping up the monthly expiry trade at this remarkable level. Which sectors led the charge? Both the Auto and Metal sectors emerged as key contributors, though mid and small-cap stocks lagged behind the benchmark index.

Charting the Future

Looking at the daily charts, the Nifty appears to be approaching the upper end of the rising channel, hovering around 26,560. However, there are signs of divergence in the momentum indicators, suggesting a note of caution for long positions. Until signs of weakness emerge, the strategy is to continue riding this uptrend while maintaining a trailing stop-loss around 26,000.

What’s Next?
Analysis. October could bring even more positivity for the Nifty 50. Historically, it has ended on a high note in eight of the last ten years, showcasing strong seasonality patterns. Will this trend hold, and what lies ahead for investors? With the anticipation of robust corporate earnings recovery in H2FY25 and ongoing optimism around government expenditure, the Indian markets are ripe for potential growth.

China’s recent economic stimulus has revitalized investor confidence, further driving positive momentum in global markets, particularly in Asia. Yet, while large-cap stocks lead the rally, mid and small caps show signs of fatigue. Are we witnessing the dawn of a new market phase?

The Indian stock market is clearly at a pivotal moment, with eyes peeled on how these dynamics will unfold in the coming weeks.

Bank Nifty: Up by 0.51%

In a positive turn of events, the Bank Nifty opened on a strong note, climbing 0.51% to close at 54,375.35. Likewise, the BSE Sensex mirrored this optimism, rising by 0.78% and finishing strong at a high of 85,836.12.

On the sectoral front, the Auto industry saw a significant rise of 2.26%, driven by strong performances from key players. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. led the charge with an impressive gain of 4.48%, followed closely by Apollo Tyres Ltd., which rose by 4.21%.

In contrast, the Consumer Durables sector emerged as the top loser, falling by 0.90%. Notable declines were seen in Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd., which dropped by 5.04%, and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd., which lost 4.89%.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII/FPI) recorded a buy value of Rs. 26,421.21 Cr. and a sale value of Rs. 25,791.25 Cr., resulting in a net inflow of Rs. 629.96 Cr.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) exhibited stronger performance with a buy value of Rs. 15,461.30 Cr. and a sale value of Rs. 13,056.18 Cr., leading to a net inflow of Rs. 2,405.12 Cr.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Banking sector had some gainers and some losers for the day.

The gainers included Punjab National Bank with a 2.09% increase, IDFC First Bank with a 1.92% increase, State Bank of India with a 1.12% increase, Bank of Baroda with a 0.95% increase, and IndusInd Bank with a 0.94% increase.

On the other hand, the biggest losers in the sector included Federal Bank with a 0.19% decline, HDFC Bank with a 0.06% decline. These results suggest that most of the banking stocks performed better for the day.

Gold and Silver Rate (INR) 26th September, 2024

Rupee Slips as Crude Prices Rise: What’s Next for the Indian Currency?

The rupee slipped by 11 paise to 83.69 against the US dollar in early Thursday trading, raising eyebrows. With the dollar gaining strength globally and crude oil prices rising, many are left wondering—what’s next for the Indian currency?

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) also added to the pressure, turning net sellers on Wednesday. Their exit has only deepened the rupee’s struggles against the mighty greenback, according to forex experts.

At the interbank exchange, the rupee opened at 83.66, already down 8 paise from its last close of 83.58. It quickly weakened further to 83.69—leaving traders anxious about what the day might bring.

So, where could it head next?
Experts suggest that the USDINR is expected to find strong support at 83.50, with potential to bounce back toward 83.75-83.80—but this could present yet another selling opportunity for those who missed out earlier.

The dollar index—a key indicator of the US dollar’s strength—rose marginally by 0.03% to 100.93. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the international benchmark, saw a small uptick of 0.05% to 73.50 in futures trade, adding fuel to the rupee’s downward spiral.

And the FIIs? They weren’t holding back. Offloading shares worth Rs 973.94 crore, they certainly made their move—leaving many to ask, will the rupee face more headwinds?

Stocks Highlights

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. shares soared by 4.48%, closing at Rs. 13,358.65, up from the previous close of Rs. 12,785.30. This impressive movement highlights the rarity of significant intraday gains, as only 1.59% of trading sessions over the past 19 years have seen increases exceeding 5%.

The company has also demonstrated robust financial health, boasting a Return on Equity (ROE) of 15.75% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, comfortably surpassing its five-year average of 11.7%. Interestingly, Maruti Suzuki maintained operational efficiency, allocating less than 1% of its operating revenues to interest expenses and a modest 4.44% to employee costs during the same period.

On the other hand, Cipla Ltd. faced headwinds as its share price dipped by 1.47%, closing at Rs. 1,619.00, down from Rs. 1,643.20. The pharmaceutical giant also experiences infrequent intraday gains, with only 0.86% of trading sessions achieving increases above 5% in the past 19 years. However, Cipla’s financial performance is commendable, with an ROE of 15.43% for the year ending March 31, 2024, outpacing its five-year average of 11.98%.

Notably, Cipla’s annual revenue growth of 14.17% exceeded its three-year CAGR of 10.82%, signaling a positive trajectory. Moreover, a recent 14-day moving average crossover has generated a buy signal, historically resulting in an average price gain of 2.44% within seven days.

Advance Decline Ratio

Today, the advance-decline ratio was 0.72, and the market breadth was negative. The volatility index India Vix decreased by 7.12 to settle at 11.84 and the FIIs were net buyers today.

DAILY MARKET ACTION
Advancers – 1157
Decliners – 1606
52Wk High – 127
52Wk Low – 44
High Band Hitters – 87
Low Band Hitters – 88
200d SMA – 23013
50d SMA – 24928
20d SMA – 25406

Top Gainers and Losers Stocks

The top gainers were Maruti (+4.48%), Grasim (+3.19%), Tata Motors (+2.83%), Shriram Finance (+2.78%), and Bajaj Finserv (+2.59%).

The top losers were Cipla (-1.47%), ONGC (-1.24%), Larsen & Toubro (-0.89%), Hero MotoCorp (-0.80%), and NTPC (-0.60%).

Top Gainers and Losers Sectors

The top gainers sector were Auto (+2.26%), Metal (+2.13%), FMCG (+0.97%), Financial Services (+0.67%), and IT (+0.48%).

The top losers sector were Consumer Durables (-0.90%).

SECTORS – NOTABLE ACTION
AUTO +2.26%
METAL +2.13%
FMCG +0.97%
CONSUMER DURABLES -0.90%

Stocks Ban List

(SEBI) F&O ban list (GRANULES close at -543.70), (IEX close at +208.66), (IDEA close at +10.38), (HINDCOPPER close at +343.75), and (ABFRL close at -342.05) are not currently on the stock exchange.

A stock enters the Ban List if its MWPL is above 95%. Implying that, Ban List shows the Futures and Options (FnO) stocks whose combined open interest in all FnO contracts for a given period crosses 95% of Market-Wide Position Limit.

RBLBANK, BANDHANBNK, IDFCFIRSTB, PNB, MANAPPURAM, CONCOR, PEL, NMDC, and CANBK stocks has the possibilities of entrance in the ban list.

Daily Pivots

As per the above pivots data, 25900 to 26400 is the Nifty 50 trading range.

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This article is only for educational purposes and is not an investment advice.